Market snapshot
Bitcoin fell under $63,000 on Tuesday as the market digested continued withdrawals from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Institutional flows remain a dominant narrative for price direction, with Monday alone seeing $91.4 million flow out of spot ETFs - a distinct slowdown from the $325.7 million that exited on Friday. Despite the decline in the single-day pace, funds have recorded three consecutive weeks of net outflows, amounting to $1.7 billion last week, marking the heaviest weekly outflow since February 2025.
Drivers of sentiment
Market observers have pointed to several forces pressuring sentiment. Risk aversion tied to the Gulf war, worries about rising interest rates, and a rotation of investor attention toward artificial intelligence-related equities have all been cited as factors that have diverted capital away from crypto assets.
Corporate buying amid the dip
At the same time as ETFs have seen net exits, a major corporate holder increased its position during the price pullback. Strategy acquired 1,550 Bitcoin for roughly $101 million, taking its aggregate holdings to 845,256 coins. That purchase followed Strategy's sale of 32 Bitcoin on June 1, an earlier disposition that had contributed to negative sentiment around the market.
Views from Transform Ventures
Michael Terpin, CEO of venture capital firm Transform Ventures and author of Bitcoin Supercycle, has been vocal about his evolving view on the market bottom. Terpin said he initially expected a cycle bottom in September or October but now assigns a 50 percent probability that the bottom could arrive before mid-July. "Most likely, we are going lower from here, but that’s not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to buy at the bottom, as Bitcoin cycles always (so far) capitulate in the midterm year, then run up sharply for three years before the next bubble pops," he said. Terpin added that if the bottom does arrive before mid-July, prices in October would likely exceed $70,000.
Terpin reiterated a longer-term bullish scenario as well, forecasting that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs within the next three years and suggesting a price in excess of $200,000 by 2029 as part of his outlook. He also emphasized that this cycle is unique in that Bitcoin's price has fallen below the prior halving price from its all-time high, a dynamic he attributes to the law of diminishing returns - noting gains have narrowed from 100x in the 2012-13 cycle to roughly a doubling in the 2024-26 cycle.
On institutions, quantum risk, and AI rotation
Terpin pushed back on the notion that institutions now hold the majority of Bitcoin. "It’s a myth that the majority of crypto holders are now institutions. The vast majority (about 88 percent) are held by individuals, including those on exchanges, with around 12 percent ’institutional' - but half of that is ETFs, which are managed by institutions but ultimately held by retail. The big drawdowns in ETFs during this bear market disproves the theory that ETFs are sticky holders," he said.
When asked about quantum computing threats to Bitcoin, Terpin described such risks as overstated. "Quantum risks to Bitcoin are overstated, and there have been zero drawdowns to date based primarily on quantum threats to Bitcoin. If North Korea hacked SHA-256, they would break the banking system, hospitals and the defense industry before they got around to Satoshi’s wallets," he said.
On the possibility that fading momentum in AI could redirect retail interest back into crypto, Terpin noted distinctions between where venture capital and retail have deployed capital. "VCs have chased AI more than retail. Retail has chased the Mag7, which is only partially AI. As one bubble pops, smart money looks at undervalued sectors. Bitcoin has always recovered from its midterm year bear market (2014, 2018, 2022 and now 2026) and I expect it once again to reach new all time highs within the next three years," he added.
Implications for market participants
The recent ETF outflows, combined with macro risk factors and sector rotation into AI stocks, have amplified near-term volatility for Bitcoin. Corporate accumulation by large holders such as Strategy provides a counterpoint to ETF withdrawals, but the mix of selling and buying underscores a bifurcated market where flows and sentiment will likely remain important price determinants over the coming weeks.
Outlook
Terpin cautions investors to prepare for further downside in the near term while remaining positioned for a potential multi-year upswing if historical midterm recovery patterns repeat. He urged caution against panic selling and advised readiness to accumulate at lower prices when the market establishes a clear bottom.