U.S. Tiger Research on Tuesday published a valuation exercise that pegs Bitcoin's long-run per-coin price between $227,000 and $378,000. The conclusion rests on a scenario in which Bitcoin ultimately captures 15% to 25% of gold's total market capitalization.
The firm's analyst, Bo Pei, frames the thesis around Bitcoin becoming a meaningful minority allocation relative to gold across institutions, private wealth, and households. The valuation uses an illustrative gold market capitalization of $31.8 trillion and assumes Bitcoin's maximum supply is capped at 21 million coins, producing the stated per-coin range when those market-share assumptions are applied.
On the macro side, U.S. Tiger Research points to factors that could bolster Bitcoin's monetary premium. The report cites global M2 money supply expansion from roughly $23 trillion at Bitcoin's launch to more than $100 trillion today. It also references projections from the Congressional Budget Office that U.S. federal debt held by the public is expected to rise from about 100% of GDP in 2025 to 156% by 2055, with deficits averaging 6.3% of GDP over the coming 30 years. The firm presents these trends as part of the backdrop supporting demand for alternative monetary assets.
U.S. Tiger Research also notes that the creation of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has broadened potential buyers by embedding Bitcoin within brokerage, advisory, and institutional infrastructure. The report lists likely next adopters as registered investment advisors, model portfolios, retirement accounts, corporate treasuries, pensions, and sovereign wealth funds, indicating a shift in distribution and accessibility beyond early adopter channels.
At the same time, the report underscores several caveats. Bitcoin remains volatile and could be affected by episodes of macro deleveraging. The firm warns that regulatory outcomes could diverge across jurisdictions, creating uneven adoption paths. It also names quantum computing as a long-term tail risk to cryptographic security. Finally, U.S. Tiger Research highlights that as mining subsidies decline through scheduled halvings, the security budget for miners will need to rely more heavily on durable demand for blockspace to sustain incentives.
For context, Bitcoin was trading around $61,700 midday on Tuesday.
Takeaway - The report offers a market-cap-share framework tying Bitcoin's upside to a portion of gold's value while stressing that adoption, macro conditions, regulatory policy, and technical security are decisive variables for that outcome.