Overview
The Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute expects China’s oil demand to decrease by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, a reduction equal to 8.9% compared with the prior year. The institute attributes the downturn to high crude oil prices and growing adoption of electric vehicles.
Peak and long-term trajectory
According to the institute, China - the worlds largest oil importer - saw its oil demand peak in 2025. The projection lays out a path in which annual demand falls below 750 million tons by 2030 and continues to decline toward roughly 300 million tons by 2060.
Fuel-specific outlook
The research group provided a breakdown of refined product demand for 2026: gasoline demand is expected to contract by 8.7% year-over-year, diesel demand is forecast to drop by 11.4%, while jet fuel demand is projected to rise by 1.3%.
Refining sector metrics
Sinopec reported that Chinas refining capacity reached 952 million tons per year in 2026. It also noted that crude runs declined by 5.4% to 697 million tons across the second and third quarters, and that the refinery utilization rate fell to 73.2%.
Related energy demand
In addition to oil figures, the research institute flagged growth in industrial gas demand, estimating an increase of 50 billion cubic meters by 2030.
Context limitations
The institutes projections and the figures reported reflect its internal analysis. The summary attributes the 2026 demand decline to high crude prices and EV penetration as provided by the source. No additional causes or external drivers are asserted beyond the institutes statements.