A recent global poll conducted by Bank of America among 30 fund managers overseeing a combined $341 billion in assets finds investors remain unconvinced that the US dollar's recent gains will last. The survey, carried out between April 3 and April 9, reports that market participants treated the dollar rally largely as a tactical response to geopolitical tensions rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
According to the results, investors rushed to cover dollar short positions following the outbreak of the Iran conflict but did not broadly transition into outright long-dollar positions. That behavior reflects a cautious posture: market participants reduced exposure to short-term dollar weakness without placing firm bets on continued appreciation.
Most respondents told BofA they expect the dollar to ease over time. The poll indicates that concerns about slowing growth have become more prominent than inflation worries among the managers surveyed, and a prevailing view is that the US Federal Reserve is likelier to move toward a dovish stance in the period ahead.
More than half of those polled singled out factors that could push the dollar weaker, including loose monetary policy and threats to the independence of central banks. These risks were presented as potential triggers for further dollar depreciation if they materialize.
The survey also highlighted a growing consensus that interest-rate cycles have peaked. A majority of respondents said they do not expect central banks to deliver more rate hikes than what is already priced into markets. Reflecting that view, positions that benefit from falling yields - particularly at the short end of yield curves - emerged as the highest-conviction trade idea for 2026.
BofA's respondents tied the appeal of ‘‘long rates’’ to expectations of slower economic growth and the potential for monetary easing. Such positioning suggests managers are preparing for a macro environment in which policy rates and short-term yields come under downward pressure.
Geopolitical flashpoints remained central to investor thinking. The Iran conflict in particular continues to shape market behavior: while many respondents expect the war to end as early as April, fewer than one-third foresee a full restoration of normal shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz by mid-year.
Expectations for a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war remain muted. Most managers surveyed see no near-term end to that conflict, and that outlook is informing positioning across currencies, rates, and commodities.
The poll included forward-looking commodity assessments. BofA reported that respondents expect oil prices to stabilize in the $90-$99 per barrel range over the next three to six months. By contrast, sentiment on gold was markedly more bullish, with most respondents forecasting a return to the $5,000-$5,500 range.
Taken together, the survey paints a picture of cautious positioning: managers trimmed short-dollar exposure in response to immediate geopolitical shocks but stopped short of endorsing sustained dollar strength. Instead, they are positioning for slower growth, a likely dovish pivot from the Fed, and differentiated outcomes across key commodities.