Economy April 13, 2026 03:31 PM

Ukraine central bank warns Middle East conflict will lift domestic inflation

Governor says higher oil prices already feeding through to Ukraine and could push inflation up by as much as 2.8 percentage points

By Caleb Monroe
Ukraine central bank warns Middle East conflict will lift domestic inflation

Ukraine's central bank governor warned that oil price increases tied to the war in the Middle East have already pushed up prices within Ukraine and could raise the country's inflation rate by between 1.5 and 2.8 percentage points. He reiterated the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation to 5% within three years, welcomed recent Hungarian election results that could unblock a delayed EU loan, and outlined a schedule of meetings in Washington tied to IMF and World Bank spring sessions. The comments follow large Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which the governor said will curb growth and spur migration outflows.

Key Points

  • Higher oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East have already pushed up prices in Ukraine and could raise inflation by 1.5 to 2.8 percentage points - impacts sectors: energy, consumer goods, and transportation.
  • The National Bank of Ukraine remains committed to reducing inflation to 5% in three years, using all available policy tools - impacts sectors: banking and financial markets.
  • Election results in Hungary, which removed Viktor Orban from office and saw his party lose to the upstart centre-right Tisza party, may help unblock a delayed 90 billion euro EU loan to Ukraine - impacts sectors: sovereign financing and public investment.

Overview

Ukraine's top central banker said that the spike in oil prices associated with the war in the Middle East has already translated into higher consumer prices across Ukraine and could lift inflation by 1.5 to 2.8 percentage points.

Policy stance and target

National Bank of Ukraine Governor Andriy Pyshnyi said the central bank will maintain its objective of reducing inflation to 5% over a three-year horizon. He emphasized that the bank will employ all tools at its disposal to achieve that goal.

Political and financial developments

Pyshnyi welcomed the results of recent elections in Hungary, which saw President Viktor Orban swept from office. He said he hoped the change in Budapest would resolve delays surrounding the European Union's planned 90 billion euro support package for Ukraine. The governor reiterated that Orban - whose party lost the national vote to the upstart centre-right Tisza party - had previously blocked implementation of the EU loan, citing a dispute over a war-damaged pipeline.

Engagements in Washington

Pyshnyi is part of a sizable Ukrainian delegation attending the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. He said the delegation's aim is to ensure that Russia's war on Ukraine - now in its fifth year - remains on the international agenda despite the emergence of a new conflict in the Middle East.

The governor outlined a schedule of bilateral contacts in Washington: a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other senior U.S. officials on Wednesday, discussions with U.S. lawmakers on Thursday and a meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

Economic consequences of recent attacks

These engagements come in the wake of extensive Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Pyshnyi warned that those strikes will weigh on economic growth and prompt increased migration outflows.

Currency note

($1 = 0.8509 euros)


This article summarizes remarks and developments reported by Ukrainian authorities and reflects their stated positions and assessments.

Risks

  • Elevated oil prices from the Middle East conflict may make inflation control more difficult and increase costs across energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and transport.
  • Massive Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are expected to depress economic growth and drive higher migration outflows, which could strain labor markets and public finances.
  • Political obstacles to EU funding - previously linked to Hungary's objections over a war-damaged pipeline - continue to pose uncertainty for Ukraine's near-term external financing and reconstruction plans.

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