Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,592 total articles
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that individual tax refunds in the 2026 filing season are more than 10% higher than a year earlier, with almost half of filers taking advantage of new deductions in the Republican tax cut law enacted last year. He flagged a particularly large uptake in a deduction for overtime premium pay earned in 2025 an…
The Bank of Israel left its policy rate unchanged at 4% on Monday, a decision that matched forecasts from Bloomberg-surveyed economists. The move reflects a cautious posture amid heightened uncertainty tied to the ongoing conflict with Iran, which officials say is contributing to inflationary pressures at home and abroad. Markets in Israel showed v…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News the administration anticipates the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened to commercial shipping, saying the U.S. intends to restore freedom of navigation through either U.S.-led or multinational escorts. He also described a significant global oil supply deficit and noted coordinated releases of strategic r…
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has issued guidance urging banks and other financial institutions to be vigilant for fraud schemes targeting federal and state healthcare benefit programs, including Medicare and Medicaid. The advisory lays out common money-laundering patterns used by transnational criminal organizations and offers red-flag …
A Morgan Stanley consumer poll of about 2,000 Americans conducted March 19-23 finds data privacy and fears over job security remain the most frequently reported anxieties as AI use in the workplace grows. The survey also records higher concern about inflation and a jump in geopolitical worries, while roughly half of consumers plan to save or pay do…
Global government bond markets are headed for their largest monthly losses in years as the Middle East war shifts investor attention from hoped-for rate cuts to the risk of persistent inflation combined with weaker growth. Short-dated, rate-sensitive bonds have borne the brunt of selling, even as that pressure showed tentative signs of easing. Mark…
A Swiss National Bank survey shows mobile payment app use plateaued last year while cash continues to be a widely supported payment method. Debit cards remain the dominant form for in-person purchases, and most respondents prefer retaining cash for reasons including anonymity and perceived control over spending.
S&P Global Ratings cautions that the Middle East war risks ending a period of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets, as disruptions to oil shipping have pushed crude prices sharply higher. The spike in energy costs has immediate implications for importers and exporters alike, with rising inflation and tighter financing conditions poten…
Barclays cautions that investors appear to be tilting toward higher odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes despite recent commodity-driven inflationary pressures. Analyst Jonathan Millar argues that the market is assigning roughly a 25% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase by December, a stance the bank views as premature without clear, sustai…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak to an introductory macroeconomics class at Harvard University as policymakers and markets weigh how to respond to simultaneous inflationary pressure and slowing growth stemming from the Iran war and rising fuel prices. The situation poses a classic central-bank dilemma: tighten to restrain inflation an…
As oil and gasoline prices climb following the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, policymakers at the Federal Reserve are monitoring signs that household and market measures of inflation expectations may be slipping from the 2% anchor. Recent weak Treasury auctions, higher U.S. yields and a jump in one-year consumer expectations have intensified deba…
U.S. stock index futures opened higher on Monday in a holiday-shortened trading week after steep losses the previous session, as investors continued to digest the widening Middle East conflict. Renewed fighting and comments from global leaders have driven oil and commodity prices higher, lifting energy and aluminum stocks in premarket trade, even a…
Nvidia’s price-to-earnings multiple has dropped to its lowest level since early 2019 as investors reel from geopolitical fears tied to the Middle East and questions about the timing of returns from heavy AI infrastructure spending. The pullback has erased roughly $800 billion from the company’s market value even as gross margins have expanded and a…
JPMorgan's equity strategy team argues that while rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions have revived memories of 2022, several material differences in wage trends, central bank positioning, consumer dynamics, European growth and energy infrastructure make a repeat of 2022-style stagflation unlikely.
The ongoing Iran conflict, now entering a second month, continues to reshape energy flows and investor sentiment as the first quarter ends. Oil prices have jumped well above pre-war levels, while trading eyes remain fixed on both diplomatic signals from Washington and a slate of U.S. economic data—including manufacturing activity and the March jobs…
The first quarter ends under intense geopolitical strain as the Iran conflict reshapes market priorities. A sharp rise in energy prices, large equity losses, and sudden shifts in safe-haven flows have left investors recalibrating risk and policy expectations. In the coming week markets will focus on U.S. payrolls, South Korea trade data, and a flas…
A Bank of Japan staff analysis cautions that recent increases in crude oil prices and a weaker yen could exert stronger upward pressure on Japan's underlying inflation than in the past, in part because companies have grown more active in raising prices and wages. The BOJ describes how it measures underlying inflation, reports inflation expectations…
Policymakers across the Asia-Pacific are grappling with a rapid energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran that is hitting the region harder and sooner than many other parts of the world. With Asia taking about 80% of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz and analysts warning shortages will intensify through April and May, authorities…
Spain has ordered its airspace closed to U.S. military aircraft conducting operations against Iran, a measure that goes further than its prior refusal to permit U.S. use of jointly operated military bases. The restriction requires U.S. planes to route around Spanish airspace except in emergencies and reflects Madrid's stated refusal to participate …
An analysis published by economists at the European Central Bank finds that foreign exporters are absorbing only a small fraction of recent U.S. tariff increases. The study tracks tariff changes from January to November 2025 and shows roughly 95% pass-through of tariff costs to U.S. import prices, substantial declines in import volumes, and a prono…
Preliminary March inflation readings from four large German states show consumer prices rising to at least 2.5% year-on-year, reflecting sharp energy-driven price pressures linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The state-level increases make it likely that Germany's national harmonised inflation rate will tick higher when official figures are pub…
Morgan Stanley has moved to a more defensive allocation, lowering its view on global equities to equal weight and boosting exposure to cash and U.S. Treasuries. The firm cited elevated uncertainty about the scale and persistence of oil supply disruption stemming from the Middle East conflict, noting dramatic recent moves in Brent crude and warning …
U.S. equity futures rose modestly as investors weighed a widening conflict in the Middle East now in its second month. Reports of U.S. troop movements and a contemplated operation to remove uranium from Iran coincided with President Donald Trump saying talks with Tehran could be progressing. Brent crude climbed above $108 a barrel and safe-haven go…
An article in the European Central Bank's Economic Bulletin concludes that U.S. consumers and domestic importers absorb the bulk of the financial burden from recent U.S. tariffs, while trade volumes contract and exporters experience secondary negative effects. The ECB quantifies current and potential future cost shares and estimates a sizeable drop…
European equities were largely unchanged as traders awaited Germany’s CPI and HICP releases and monitored renewed escalation in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices higher and intensified inflation concerns. Defensive sectors led declines while miners and some exporters reacted to operational updates and weather-related disruptions.
