Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,630 total articles
Senior U.S. military leaders warned that operations against Iran will be protracted and could produce further American casualties. The U.S.-Israeli air campaign expanded with no clear timeline for completion, and the U.S. reported that Kuwait’s air defenses mistakenly shot down three American F-15E fighter jets during an Iranian attack. Officials s…
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor said in Oslo that weakening inflation, higher unemployment and slower wage growth mean the Bank may shortly be operating outside the usual trade-off between growth and inflation, raising the prospect of demand shortfalls. Taylor, who joined three colleagues last month in pressing for a ra…
JPMorgan has reduced its 2026 non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, citing heightened regional risks after a recent escalation in the Middle East. The bank says the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran has raised uncertainty across the region, with oil and sentiment as primary transmis…
UK stock markets fell on Monday amid a global risk-off move triggered by heightened conflict in the Middle East. Oil surged almost 8% after retaliatory Iranian attacks disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz following a weekend bombing that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While energy and defence names advanced, domesticall…
The Kremlin says it is maintaining continuous communication with Iranian authorities after U.S. strikes that Moscow described as 'outright aggression.' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed deep disappointment that negotiations mediated by Oman appeared to collapse into attacks, and said President Vladimir Putin plans an Iran-related internatio…
The Kremlin said on Monday that Russia continues to view ongoing negotiations with Ukraine as aligned with its interests and that a political and diplomatic settlement remains Moscow's preferred means of ending the conflict. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russia's openness to talks, while recent reporting has highlighted an impasse over…
Global air freight demand rose 5.6% year-on-year in January 2026, driven by international moves and notable gains on several trade corridors, according to data published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Monday. Capacity also expanded, though performance varied sharply by region with carriers in the Americas recording an over…
Federal Reserve officials acknowledge AI will reshape the economy but disagree on how quickly and how broadly those changes will show up in labor markets and inflation. Recent large tech layoffs and rising corporate investment underline the tensions: displaced workers could face longer job searches while gains for capital and remaining employees ma…
The U.S.-Israeli military action on Iran has interrupted commercial shipping in the Gulf, a key conduit for oil, LNG and petrochemicals bound for Europe. Immediate market reactions have lifted crude and gas prices, creating upside risks for energy inflation while imposing a modest near-term drag on growth. Central banks are watching the duration an…
Global financial markets enter the new trading week under the shadow of intensified conflict in the Middle East following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that reportedly killed several senior Iranian figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The geopolitical escalation has pushed oil and gold higher and sent U.S. future…
India's Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) central board of trustees, in consultation with the labour ministry, has recommended holding the interest rate on member balances at 8.25% for the current fiscal year 2025/26, which ends on March 31. The recommendation will take effect only after approval from the finance ministry. The labour mi…
Authorities in South Sudan report that an assault on Abiemnhom in the Ruweng Administrative Area on Sunday resulted in 122 fatalities, including 82 civilians. Local officials said attackers from Mayom County in Unity State engaged in more than three hours of fighting. The incident has intensified concerns about deepening instability as political te…
Italy's fiscal deficit for 2025 reached 3.1% of GDP, slightly improved from 3.4% in 2024 but still above the European Union's 3% threshold, according to national statistics agency ISTAT. The miss clouds hopes of an early exit from the EU's Excessive Deficit Procedure and maintains constraints on public spending as the government prepares for the 20…
Japanese government bond yields and market expectations for the Bank of Japan's next rate increase were disrupted after renewed strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation. The two-year JGB yield dropped, signalling reduced odds of an immediate policy move, while analysts weigh competing pressures from safe-haven demand and potential imported inflat…
The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 49.5 in January, its best reading since June 2020 and the first reading above the 50 growth threshold since August. The improvement was led by a sharp uplift in new orders and a rise in factory output, with Germany returning to growth and several other economies posting expansions. H…
Global markets moved sharply lower and commodity prices jumped after coordinated U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran sparked broader regional retaliation. U.S. equity futures fell heavily, oil surged on fears for the Strait of Hormuz and gold climbed as investors sought safety. Asian equities slid amid geopolitical tensions and renewed worries abo…
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) said it has raised its readiness to intervene in currency markets after the franc strengthened to its strongest level against the euro since 2015. The bank warned that a rapid, excessive appreciation of the franc threatens price stability and could push inflation into negative territory, potentially harming Swiss expor…
U.S. equity futures fell sharply as renewed military strikes across the Middle East and statements from political leaders stoked fears of a widening conflict. Oil prices rose while gold and government bonds rallied, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to an 11-month low. The market reaction arrives ahead of a busy U.S. data calendar that includ…
JPMorgan has reduced its 2026 non-oil growth forecast for Gulf Cooperation Council economies following a weekend escalation in the Iran conflict, cutting the bloc-wide estimate by 0.3 percentage points and making larger downgrades for Bahrain and the UAE. The bank also revised its expectations for monetary policy in Turkey and Israel, shifting its …
India's economy expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the October-December quarter under a newly revised GDP series, down from 8.4% in the prior quarter. Strong private consumption and double-digit manufacturing growth helped the country remain the fastest-growing major economy, even as government expenditure and private investment cooled. Authorities said…
A report from Transport & Environment (T&E) finds that expanding battery manufacturing within the EU could reduce the price disadvantage versus Chinese-made cells from roughly 90% today to about 30% by 2030, provided local producers scale up and achieve efficiency gains. The group calls on the European Commission's forthcoming Industrial Accelerato…
India’s central bank governor told a national newspaper that, absent shocks, interest rates will remain "around this level or lower" for an extended period. He reiterated the Reserve Bank of India’s focus on aligning the weighted average call rate with the policy repo rate, noted large surplus liquidity that has pushed the call rate below the polic…
Shipping congestion around the Strait of Hormuz has surged after attacks damaged three tankers in the Gulf, prompting hesitancy among shippers and increased insurance and charter costs. The strait carries roughly a fifth of seaborne oil trade, a comparable share of liquefied natural gas and about a third of seaborne fertiliser. Market moves include…
Iran's chief security official, Ali Larijani, said Tehran will not enter negotiations with the United States, rejecting media accounts that suggested Iran had sought dialogue following coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Larijani's comments came amid a surge in strikes across the region, with Israel t…
India's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest clip in four months in February, driven by stronger domestic demand that lifted new orders and production, according to the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global. Export growth cooled to its weakest in 17 months, and employment gains remained modest despite rising confidence among f…
