Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,634 total articles
The Office for Budget Responsibility has reduced its projected UK GDP growth for 2026 to 1.1%, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said in a half-yearly fiscal update. The OBR's profile now shows slightly slower expansion in 2026 with stronger growth of 1.6% pencilled in for both 2027 and 2028 and 1.5% for 2029 and 2030.
Traders have reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year after a spike in energy prices tied to widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran raised the prospect of higher inflation. Futures indicate a sharply lower probability of a June cut, a rising chance of a July move, and only modest easing priced in by year-end. Federal Res…
Government bond markets across Europe, the United States and Britain plunged after an escalation of the Middle East conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lifted oil and gas prices. Short-dated, rate-sensitive notes fell most sharply, forcing traders to reduce expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Bank of England and the F…
Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear corporation, has announced plans to evacuate as many as 200 employees from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran after explosions were reported just kilometers from the facility's protective perimeter. The company says roughly 700 Russian specialists are assigned to Bushehr and that about 100 non-essential staff ha…
A study published by European Central Bank economists concludes that the spread of stablecoins across the euro area could erode the central bank's ability to shape financial conditions, draw deposits away from traditional banks and reduce the supply of credit to the real economy. While stablecoins remain small relative to euro-area deposits, the pa…
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told visiting Brunei officials in Moscow that Russia has not observed proof of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, repeating Moscow's demand for an immediate end to military hostilities amid reported regional fallout from the U.S. and Israeli operations against Tehran.
BCA Research advises investors to avoid fading the recent rise in oil prices or rushing back into equities, characterizing the Iran-related geopolitical shock as ongoing and likely to have larger economic consequences. The firm assigns a high weighted probability to a substantial oil supply shock and is maintaining defensive positioning, including …
Qatar's foreign ministry has warned that Iranian targets are not confined to military installations but encompass the country's entire territory. Doha said it had received no prior notification of incoming missile strikes, has no active communications with Iran, and confirmed the downing of Iranian jets that entered Qatari airspace. Attempts to hit…
Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that artificial intelligence is reshaping the economy but remain divided over how quickly and to what extent those changes will affect employment and inflation. Recent corporate layoffs tied to AI, rising Fed attention to the technology in research and speeches, and competing views among policymakers and commen…
Realtor.com's 2026 Housing Supply Gap report shows the U.S. housing deficit increased to an estimated 4.03 million homes in 2025 from 3.80 million in 2024. The gap widened as household formation rose sharply while housing starts and completions declined, reinforcing a pattern of underbuilding that Realtor.com says has constrained supply and pushed …
Euro zone consumer prices rose more than economists expected in February, lifting both headline and underlying inflation measures but keeping headline inflation below the European Central Bank's 2% goal. Officials are now monitoring a recent more-than-10% jump in oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict and assessing how quickly that move could …
A sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices is likely to push U.K. consumer inflation higher while weakening near-term growth, according to J.P. Morgan. The bank's analysis shows that oil at $78 per barrel and gas trading near 95 pence per therm would lift CPI modestly and could prompt the Bank of England to delay planned interest-rate reductions un…
Yannis Stournaras, governor of the Bank of Greece and an ECB policymaker, said the European Central Bank should keep policy options open as the unfolding war on Iran could push inflation higher if it continues. He recommended patience, arguing that the conflict's ultimate impact on prices and output hinges on how long and how deep the fighting beco…
U.S. equity futures turned sharply lower following a session in which major indices recovered from deep losses after renewed strikes in Iran. President Trump signaled the U.S.-led campaign could extend beyond initial timelines, while oil surged on supply disruption fears tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Spot gold eased as a stronger dollar reduced bul…
Donald Trump told a British tabloid that the bilateral relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom has worsened after Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially declined to provide military backing for strikes on Iran. Trump said the partnership is "not what it was" and described the situation as "very sad," while criticizing Starmer o…
Official figures show consumer prices in Turkey rose 2.96% in February on a monthly basis and 31.53% year-on-year. Food and drinks led monthly gains, while producer prices also climbed. Market turbulence tied to conflict in the Middle East prompted emergency central bank measures and a sharp intraday rise in overnight rates, leaving policymakers fa…
U.S. stock index futures fell as investors absorbed news of intensified U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and weighed the risk that rising energy prices could stoke inflation. Oil climbed, gold extended gains, the dollar strengthened and the 10-year Treasury yield rose, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated. Marke…
Market volatility caused by the widening conflict in the Middle East has increased the probability that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will refrain from raising interest rates at its March meeting, according to people familiar with the central bank's deliberations. Only a sudden, steep depreciation of the yen appears likely to force a March hike, while of…
European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane cautioned that an extended war in the Middle East could drive a significant rise in euro zone inflation while suppressing economic growth. Lane said higher energy prices from sustained regional conflict would exert upward pressure on inflation in the near term and harm activity, and the ECB is monit…
Global markets reacted sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump pledged the United States would do "whatever it takes" to meet its military objectives in Iran. The escalation in air strikes, reports of damage to a U.S. embassy and regional data centers, and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz further rattled investors, lifting oil and…
China's annual parliamentary session beginning March 5 is widely expected to present a lower growth target in the 4.5%–5% range and to reiterate competing priorities: lift consumption and accelerate investment in high-tech sectors. The simultaneous release of the 15th five-year plan is likely to reaffirm this dual approach, leaving significant poli…
China has sought for years to shift growth reliance toward household consumption, but multiple structural constraints and large fiscal costs have limited progress. Policymakers have a menu of options - boosting social welfare, expanding services, reforming taxes, easing household registration rules, stabilising the property market, changing land ow…
China’s Premier Li Qiang is due to announce Beijing’s principal economic targets for 2026 when the annual parliamentary session opens on March 5. Observers expect a modest downward revision to the growth goal, steady fiscal deficit guidance, large special debt issuance for stimulus and infrastructure, a continued push on job creation amid a record …
China will present its 15th five-year plan when parliament convenes on March 5, laying out policy priorities for 2026-2030. The document is expected to signal how Beijing intends to raise household consumption, accelerate technological advancement and manage the role of manufacturing in the economy, while restating goals on urbanisation, research s…
Japan's spending on factories and equipment rose 6.5% year-on-year in the October-December quarter to 15.4 trillion yen, Ministry of Finance data showed, marking a fourth consecutive quarterly increase and a record high for the quarter. The result underpins expectations for an upward revision to GDP, even as consumption remains pressured by inflati…
