Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,630 total articles
A sharp jump in oil and energy prices has revived investor concern that a prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger stagflation similar to the 1970s. The move higher in Brent crude and European gas is complicating policy choices for central banks, pressuring bond markets and reshaping safe-haven flows, with Europe and the UK appearing particular…
HSBC said it remains confident in the economic prospects of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries despite recent disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. CEO Georges Elhedery reiterated the bank's faith in the GCC's fundamentals and expressed expectation for renewed stability and growth in the years ahead, even as Iranian drones and bal…
A federal alert circulated to U.S. law enforcement agencies identifies encrypted radio transmissions believed to have come from Iran and relayed across several countries shortly after the reported killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The communications appear encoded for recipients holding a specific decryption key and could be intended to instruct o…
Anthropic has sued to block the U.S. Department of Defense from labeling the company a national security supply-chain risk. The AI developer argues the designation is unlawful, infringes constitutional protections, and seeks a court order to vacate the classification and prevent federal enforcement.
President Trump told the New York Post he has not decided to dispatch U.S. forces to Iran’s Isfahan nuclear enrichment site, saying no choice has been made and the option is not imminent. The remarks come after reporting that U.S. and Israeli officials have discussed special operations to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Official…
Anthropic filed suit in federal court seeking to block the Pentagon from placing it on a national security supply-chain risk list. The company argues the designation is unlawful and infringes its free speech and due process rights after refusing to remove guardrails that would permit use of its models for autonomous weapons and domestic surveillanc…
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's February Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans' inflation expectations one year ahead edged down to 3% from 3.1% in January, while three- and five-year expectations remained at 3%. The survey, conducted February 2-28, does not capture the public's response to recent surges in oil prices tied to …
MSC announced emergency fuel surcharges on March 9 covering cargoes departing the Western Mediterranean, Adriatic, Eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey bound for the Red Sea, East Africa and the Indian sub-continent. The levies, billed per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU), take effect March 16 and run through March 31, with higher fees for ref…
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has upended several of 2026’s most widely held market convictions. Investors have rotated into perceived safe havens such as the U.S. dollar, while non-U.S. equities and emerging market assets have come under pressure. Heightened energy price risk has reduced the likelihood of near-term rate cuts by …
Mexico's year-on-year consumer inflation accelerated to 4.02% in February, above economist expectations and slightly beyond the central bank's target band. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, held at 4.5% while monthly price gains exceeded forecasts, underscoring ongoing inflationary pressure that Banxico monitors cl…
NATO forces intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran toward Turkish territory on Monday, the Defense Ministry said. The intercepted munition produced debris that landed in Gaziantep province, located within several hundred kilometers of major NATO and U.S. facilities in Turkey. The action follows a similar interception on March 4, after whic…
UBS warns that a sharp jump in energy costs following the Iran war has created simultaneous upward pressure on inflation and a drag on growth, complicating the European Central Bank's policy path. Markets have repriced expectations toward cumulative rate increases by December 2026, and UBS expects the ECB to present multiple scenarios at its March …
Markets have sharply repriced expectations for central bank policy after the Iran war elevated oil prices and the risk of sustained supply disruption. Investors now see the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and Sweden's Riksbank moving to raise rates this year, with the Bank of England pushed back into the tightening conversation for 2…
Barclays analyst Jonathan Miller says recent U.S. data has reduced uncertainty around growth and the labour market, but rising oil prices represent the principal upside risk to inflation. The bank retains forecasts for two 25 basis-point rate cuts in June and December, while raising its December 2026 CPI projection following recent energy market mo…
A federal judge has determined that Kari Lake was not lawfully serving as acting CEO of the U.S. Agency for Global Media during much of 2025, voiding a set of decisions she made to reduce staff and curtail Voice of America operations. The ruling, delivered March 7, favors VOA journalists and a federal employees union and could upend cuts that remai…
Rising hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have pushed Brent crude past $100 per barrel and raised concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. Investors will parse key U.S. inflation measures this week while the Federal Reserve enters a pre-decision blackout period. Corporate earnings from Oracle and Adobe add further focus, with AI-related sp…
Minutes from a recent roundtable show the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions warned major banks that the common use of blanket appraisals for condominium mortgages - which lock in values at purchase agreement rather than at closing - can lead to uninsured loans exceeding the 80% loan-to-value threshold under the Bank Act in a fa…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she expects inflation to move toward the Fed's 2% goal but warned that if price pressures do not ease later this year the central bank may need to adopt a more restrictive stance. Hammack cited surging oil prices tied to President Donald Trump’s war on Iran and a recent loss of 92,000 jo…
Oil has climbed roughly 60% in just over a week amid tensions related to the war in Iran, prompting traders to price about 40 basis points of ECB tightening for the year. Senior European Central Bank officials have largely cautioned against rapid policy action, stressing the importance of the medium-term inflation outlook and close, data-driven mon…
Norway's Labour Party-led government has reduced its forecast for non-oil gross domestic product in 2026 to 1.8% from an October estimate of 2.1%, while slightly raising the 2027 outlook to 1.9% from 1.8%. Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg cited the war in the Middle East as a source of heightened international economic uncertainty, noting that out…
Market measures of a U.S. recession risk have risen sharply since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, with prediction market Polymarket showing a 37% probability this morning. Equity futures slipped as strategists reassess the balance of scenarios for the U.S. economy, with Ed Yardeni markedly raising the chance of a 'Meltdown' that includes …
U.S. equity futures opened lower as the conflict in Iran enters a second week, driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel and stoking renewed worries about inflation and global growth. Oil supply disruptions centered on the Strait of Hormuz have forced route diversions, raised insurance and storage pressures, and prompted calls from policymakers to pr…
Euro-zone government bond yields climbed sharply after the widening conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to multi-year highs, raising concerns that higher energy costs could complicate central bank rate plans and damp safe-haven demand for sovereign debt. Germany's 10-year yield reached its highest level in a year, while short-dated yields…
Multiple investor delegations from the United States and elsewhere are planning visits to Venezuela in the coming weeks to meet senior government officials, company executives and local business leaders. Three separate advisory firms are organizing trips that target macroeconomic and political stability checks, debt restructuring talks and opportun…
Barclays warns that a recent surge in oil and gas prices tied to the Middle East conflict could shave growth and lift inflation across the euro zone, raising the prospect of stagflation if the price moves persist. The bank projects modest quarterly GDP gains conditional on a short-lived energy shock, while noting the ECB is unlikely to move policy …
