Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,093 total articles
A Morgan Stanley 'Tech Bytes' note highlights two linked supply risks stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Taiwan's limited liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage - roughly an 11-day onshore buffer supplemented by vessels at sea - which creates a near-term energy vulnerability for semiconductor fabs, and a secondary shortfall in sulfur-d…
Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for global personal computer shipments in 2026, projecting a 10% year-on-year decline to 257 million units amid higher component costs and a flattening replacement cycle after late-2025 upgrades. The bank expects a modest 2% rebound in 2027, while forecasting rapid penetration of AI-capable machines that shoul…
Asian equity markets fell sharply as institutional analysts revised down growth and earnings projections following a larger-than-expected disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI All Country Asia Pacific ex Japan index dropped 2.1% and foreign investors withdrew $15 billion from emerging Asian markets, prompting emergency me…
Israel has notified the United States that its supply of ballistic missile interceptors is at a 'critically low' point as the conflict with Iran escalates, a development that is amplifying pressure on production lines for high-end defensive munitions and concentrating attention on major defense contractors. U.S. officials say the volume of Iranian …
Bernstein research finds that artificial intelligence is increasingly integrated into pharmaceutical clinical development, driving faster trial design, improved patient recruitment and streamlined regulatory work. These efficiencies could shorten drug development by roughly 18 months, reduce R&D spending by about 5% over the coming years and lift o…
Analysts at Bernstein say a spike in crude above $100 a barrel driven by the Iran war raises immediate cost pressures for airlines, chiefly through higher jet fuel and refining margins. The impact will differ by carrier business model, hedging coverage and route exposure, while aircraft manufacturers may be insulated by long order backlogs. The big…
Mediators from several Middle Eastern countries sought to open talks between Washington and Tehran aimed at initiating ceasefire negotiations, but U.S. officials rejected the outreach. Iran has said it will not agree to a truce until U.S. and Israeli strikes stop. The confrontation, which began roughly two weeks ago following major airstrikes on Ir…
Iran's foreign minister dismissed U.S. assertions that the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was wounded in recent strikes, saying there is no problem with his condition. The comments, made in an interview on MS Now, counter statements from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and come as Khamenei has not made public appearances since …
Bank of America has upgraded its outlook for the global memory market, saying that the ongoing conflict involving Iran is unlikely to force memory chipmakers to cut production. The bank cites several factors - inventories of critical inputs, supplier diversification toward the U.S. and Japan, and manageable energy risks - while also raising forecas…
Israeli and Lebanese officials are anticipated to meet directly in the coming days for the first talks since Lebanon became more deeply involved in the regional conflict sparked by the Iran war. Sources indicate the discussions could take place in Paris or Cyprus and will likely concentrate on ending hostilities in Lebanon and addressing Hezbollah'…
Since the onset of the Iran conflict, energy equities have diverged sharply. Companies tied to refining margins and liquefied natural gas exports have led gains, supported by higher oil and gas prices and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. By contrast, several oilfield services and infrastructure-related firms have underperformed as…
Analysts at BCA Research say the market consequences of the Iran conflict are evolving from an early, concentrated shock into a more dispersed phase of ripple effects. What began as price moves in oil, refined fuels and natural gas tied to shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz is spreading as logistical bottlenecks, filling storage and domest…
Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that the United States would use force, if needed, against Iranian coastal targets to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and keep global shipping lanes accessible. He stated U.S. forces will continue striking Iranian boats and coastal positions to prevent threats to the waterway and warned Tehran could seek to disr…
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad estimates first-quarter GDP growth of roughly 0.8% to 1% quarter-on-quarter, attributing the pickup to government measures that have supported credit and domestic demand. He stressed that whether annual growth exceeds 2% will depend on the future course of interest rates, as oil-price volatility tied to the…
President Donald Trump pushed back on reports that U.S. refueling tankers were destroyed at a Saudi air base, posting on Truth Social that four of five aircraft sustained virtually no damage and are already back in service, while a fifth suffered limited damage and is expected to return to operation soon. His comments criticized media headlines and…
Morgan Stanley warns that risks around the Federal Reserve's policy path favor rate reductions arriving later than currently expected and possibly at greater magnitude. The bank expects elevated core PCE readings early in the year but anticipates a slowdown in inflation from the second quarter as tariff effects and seasonal distortions diminish.
Goldman Sachs says the S&P 500 could retreat to roughly 6,300 in a moderate growth shock tied to higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions related to the Iran conflict. The bank warns the shock could slow growth, keep inflation elevated and push back the timeline for Federal Reserve easing, though it still expects AI-related investment to underpi…
Bank of America reports that commodity trading advisors and trend-following strategies are reallocating exposure across major asset classes as higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions weigh on risk sentiment. Funds have been increasing long dollar and oil positions while reducing holdings in equities and U.S. Treasury futures as yields climb and…
A Jefferies report argues that artificial intelligence will produce distinct winners and losers within the business services sector. Waste management firms are positioned to benefit because their competitive moats rely on physical assets and dense operational data that AI can enhance but not replace. In contrast, traditional staffing businesses fac…
Japan and South Korea voiced serious concern over rapid declines in their currencies after annual talks in Tokyo, saying they will closely monitor foreign-exchange markets and are prepared to act to counter excessive volatility. The yen and won have weakened as safe-haven dollar demand linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and rising oil costs pre…
Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, the Shivalik and the Nanda Devi, have been permitted to cross the Strait of Hormuz and are headed to India after a reported diplomatic arrangement between New Delhi and Tehran. The shipments, chartered by Indian Oil Corp. (NS:IOC) and owned by Shipping Corp of India Ltd. (NS:SCI), offer immediate relief to a cou…
The S&P 500 slid about 2% this week amid heightened volatility tied to geopolitical risk, and Goldman Sachs warns that prolonged energy shocks pose a material downside to its 2026 earnings-per-share (EPS) growth projection of 12%. While modest oil moves tend to have limited direct impact on index earnings, a severe, sustained disruption could cut i…
A Bernstein analysis based on 50 hours of interviews with tech professionals finds that generative AI and large language models are altering job boundaries in software development but have not triggered widespread, systematic job losses. AI is accelerating productivity and shortening ramp-up times for junior engineers, while routine maintenance and…
President Lai Ching-te defended a proposed $40 billion special defence budget, arguing Taiwan's robust economic expansion - led by its semiconductor sector and AI demand - makes the spending affordable. The measure faces parliamentary resistance, and Taiwan has taken steps to secure arms contracts pending final approval. Lai emphasized using AI to …
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy team has moved its short-term allocation to global equities from neutral to underweight after a sharp rise in oil and gas prices and a deteriorating geopolitical backdrop tied to the Iran war. The firm says higher near-term inflation and constrained central bank flexibility raise the odds of a global downtu…
