Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,162 total articles
Oil has climbed roughly 60% in just over a week amid tensions related to the war in Iran, prompting traders to price about 40 basis points of ECB tightening for the year. Senior European Central Bank officials have largely cautioned against rapid policy action, stressing the importance of the medium-term inflation outlook and close, data-driven mon…
Norway's Labour Party-led government has reduced its forecast for non-oil gross domestic product in 2026 to 1.8% from an October estimate of 2.1%, while slightly raising the 2027 outlook to 1.9% from 1.8%. Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg cited the war in the Middle East as a source of heightened international economic uncertainty, noting that out…
Market measures of a U.S. recession risk have risen sharply since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, with prediction market Polymarket showing a 37% probability this morning. Equity futures slipped as strategists reassess the balance of scenarios for the U.S. economy, with Ed Yardeni markedly raising the chance of a 'Meltdown' that includes …
U.S. equity futures opened lower as the conflict in Iran enters a second week, driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel and stoking renewed worries about inflation and global growth. Oil supply disruptions centered on the Strait of Hormuz have forced route diversions, raised insurance and storage pressures, and prompted calls from policymakers to pr…
Euro-zone government bond yields climbed sharply after the widening conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to multi-year highs, raising concerns that higher energy costs could complicate central bank rate plans and damp safe-haven demand for sovereign debt. Germany's 10-year yield reached its highest level in a year, while short-dated yields…
Multiple investor delegations from the United States and elsewhere are planning visits to Venezuela in the coming weeks to meet senior government officials, company executives and local business leaders. Three separate advisory firms are organizing trips that target macroeconomic and political stability checks, debt restructuring talks and opportun…
Barclays warns that a recent surge in oil and gas prices tied to the Middle East conflict could shave growth and lift inflation across the euro zone, raising the prospect of stagflation if the price moves persist. The bank projects modest quarterly GDP gains conditional on a short-lived energy shock, while noting the ECB is unlikely to move policy …
Bonds fell broadly on Monday after oil climbed above $115 a barrel amid an intensifying U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. A more than 20% jump in crude to its highest level since July 2022, supply cuts by some regional producers and concern about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz prompted investors to reassess inflation risks and the path for monetar…
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran raises substantial upside risks to global inflation. The warning came as Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude jumped to intraday peaks above $119 a barrel amid strikes, retaliatory attacks and disruptions around the Stra…
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has sharpened policy dilemmas for central banks worldwide. A substantial supply shock from higher oil costs is intensifying inflationary pressure while prompting a safe-haven shift into the U.S. dollar. Emerging Asian central banks that had considered rate cuts face the twin risk of price spikes and cap…
A sudden escalation in Middle East tensions has produced a sharp global energy shock. Brent crude jumped past $100 at the open and reached $119.50, a surge that has lifted the benchmark some 60% since President Trump ordered the attack on Iran. The rout in energy supply is reverberating across equities, bond markets and commodity-linked sectors as …
A Reuters poll of 23 economists indicates China’s goods exports likely strengthened in the combined January-February period, with median forecasts pointing to a 7.1% year-on-year rise in U.S. dollar terms and a sizable trade surplus. The projected acceleration from December’s 6.6% gain, paired with imports that are also expected to increase, sugges…
Tokyo and Washington are exploring a proposal to establish a display-manufacturing facility in the United States in collaboration with Japan Display. The project is being considered as an element of Japan's planned $550 billion investment package and aims to shore up U.S. capabilities for display technologies used in military systems, amid intense …
A monthly recruitment survey covering around 400 UK agencies recorded the slowest decline in starting pay for permanent roles since October and an uptick in permanent staff placements to their highest level in almost three years, while temporary hiring and some other gauges remain below the expansion threshold.
Indonesia’s finance minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, has stood by an assertive set of fiscal measures that depart from the country’s recent tradition of conservative budgeting. Facing investor unease and a downgrade of the sovereign outlook to negative, he argues the policies are designed to boost credit and growth and says data will vindicate his a…
Japan recorded a 1.4% year-on-year rise in real wages in January, the first increase in 13 months, driven by a 3.0% gain in average nominal pay and the slowest consumer inflation reading used to calculate real wages since March 2022. The data bolsters arguments for further Bank of Japan rate hikes ahead of its March 18-19 policy review, though poli…
The U.S. dollar climbed to multi-month highs on Monday as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed oil above $100 a barrel, prompted broad asset sell-offs and drove investors into perceived safe havens. Major currencies including the euro, sterling and commodity-linked currencies weakened, while crude benchmarks topped $108 a barrel, spotlight…
A Bernstein report outlines how artificial intelligence and upgraded property systems could let hotels offer hyper-personalized stays by automating guest choices and coordinating services. Achieving this will require hotels to move from type-based room inventories to attribute-driven systems, and may shift distribution dynamics in favor of direct b…
UBS projects that analog and power semiconductors will capture growing demand as artificial intelligence server deployments sharply increase electricity consumption in data centers. The bank forecasts a rapid expansion in the market for AI data center power semiconductors from about $1.5 billion in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026 and roughly $3.8 bill…
U.S. officials are considering the deployment of special operations forces to seize Iran's stock of near-weapons-grade uranium, diplomatic sources familiar with the discussions say. The option has been briefed to President Donald Trump as uncertainty grows over the whereabouts of about 441 kilograms of highly enriched uranium last recorded by inter…
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN that the recent spike in oil prices is driven by a temporary 'fear premium' related to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, and said global oil and natural gas supplies remain adequate. He predicted the market response will ease once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to n…
A recent stoppage of key Qatari LNG shipments and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz have tightened the global gas market, lifting prices and testing Europe’s ability to replace lost pipeline supplies. The United States has stepped up as a major LNG exporter, but its terminals are operating near capacity. Analysts say the U.S. can redirect cargo…
Global markets entered a volatile stretch as a U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran entered its seventh day, driving oil prices higher and pushing key equity benchmarks lower. The escalation has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lifted Brent crude above $90 a barrel. At the same time, fresh U.S. data on jobs and an upcoming consumer…
Iraq’s oil production has fallen to roughly 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day from about 4.3 million bpd as tanker availability and export routes through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. The drop reflects a regional logistical bottleneck that has forced producers to curtail flows and store excess crude as storage capacity diminishes.
BTIG strategist Jonathan Krinsky said that a sharper pullback in the S&P 500 toward its 200-day moving average could present an attractive buying opportunity, even as elevated macro risks persist. Krinsky noted the index has held near the 6,700 level despite a sharp rise in oil prices and weaker-than-expected economic data. He warned that widening …
