Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,101 total articles
Moody's reaffirmed China's A1 long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured ratings and shifted the outlook from negative to stable. The agency points to durable economic and fiscal strengths, export competitiveness and policy measures that should support gradual GDP deceleration, even as government debt is projected to rise sig…
China's National Development and Reform Commission has directed the cancellation of Meta's purchase of Chinese AI startup Manus, signaling Beijing's intent to prevent transfer of critical AI personnel and intellectual property to U.S. firms. The move follows a March travel ban on Manus executives during regulatory review and could complicate U.S.-C…
Citigroup has updated its forecast for European Central Bank policy to include two quarter-point increases in June and July, followed by a prolonged pause. The bank's economists cite hawkish communication from policymakers and ongoing uncertainty over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the drivers behind the change, while warning that the outlo…
A European Central Bank survey of more than 10,000 firms shows firms expect a near-term rise in inflation tied to the war in Iran, yet three- and five-year inflation expectations held steady and firms report moderating wage growth. The results suggest limited second-round inflation effects so far, a finding that may influence the ECB's deliberation…
Standard Chartered economist Dan Pan estimates U.S. tariff receipts fell to about $25 billion in both March and April after the Supreme Court curtailed use of the IEEPA for tariffs. While revenue remains well above pre-Liberation Day levels, the bank warns that temporary measures and the move toward sector- and country-specific tariffs could drive …
A Reuters poll of economists finds near-unanimous expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 and mostly unchanged through the year. While markets price in a possible hike in the fourth quarter, economists say a rate rise would only be warranted if the recent jump in energy prices produces sustained core i…
Revised fiscal projections and official budget estimates indicate that Greece will lose its long-held position as the euro zone’s most indebted country by the end of this year, with Italian public debt expected to remain higher through the middle of the decade. Greece’s debt ratio is projected to fall to around 137% of GDP this year, while Italy’s …
A Bank of England survey released on Friday shows British companies have lifted their expectations for selling prices over the next 12 months, while their outlook for sales growth weakened to its lowest point since July 2020. Other business gauges echoed stronger pricing signals, even as concerns about demand temper how aggressively firms plan to r…
The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% on Friday, a move in line with market expectations. Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that the Iran war and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz create uncertainty that could blunt the benefits of higher commodity prices. The central bank raised its 2026 average oil price forecast to $65…
The Bank of England is set to keep Bank Rate unchanged this week as policymakers weigh how the Iran war is transmitting to domestic inflation and growth. With uncertainty around the duration and pass-through of higher energy costs, the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to reiterate readiness to act while markets continue to price in possible rate…
Global equity markets refocused on the artificial intelligence surge as hyperscaler spending expectations and strong semiconductor earnings outpaced concerns about stalled U.S.-Iran talks and a near halt of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Intel's upbeat revenue outlook triggered buying in Asian markets, pushing Japan, South Korea and Taiw…
The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to hold its short-term policy rate at 0.75% when it concludes its April 28 meeting, marking a likely third straight pause following a 25 basis-point move in December. While markets moved away from pricing an immediate additional hike after cautious messaging from senior officials, the BOJ is still expected to s…
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its key rate at 2% at its upcoming meeting after a ceasefire in the Iran conflict trimmed the immediate inflationary threat from oil markets. While the short-term outlook has improved and markets have pared back near-term rate bets, open questions remain about the durability of the peace, when oi…
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to an all-time low of 49.8 in April as households focused on rising energy and commodity costs linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.7%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.5%, reinforcing market views that the Federal Reserve is unlik…
The Justice Department's Washington office has closed its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over renovation cost concerns, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said. She has referred the matter to the Fed's Office of Inspector General, which is already reviewing cost increases on the headquarters overhaul. The move removes a key obstacl…
China's central government increased fiscal spending in the first quarter, with outlays up 2.6% year-on-year to 7.47 trillion yuan as authorities seek to bolster growth amid mounting global risks. Fiscal revenue climbed 2.4% to 6.16 trillion yuan, while land-sale receipts fell sharply, further straining local government finances.
Japan’s core consumer price inflation slowed to 1.8% year-on-year in March, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the second month running, as fuel subsidies and softer food inflation counterbalanced energy-driven price pressures. Broader price indicators remain elevated and wholesale data show sharp increases in services and freight costs linked…
Japan will establish a dedicated task force to tackle cybersecurity threats to its financial infrastructure after concerns emerged about vulnerabilities linked to Anthropic's Mythos AI model. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said regulators, the central bank, top banks and the Japan Exchange Group agreed to the move at a meeting addressing the pot…
Iran has presented a fresh proposal to the United States that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring an end to the current war, according to U.S. and other sources. The offer reportedly includes a postponement of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled despite a recently extended ceasefire and aborted follow…
The U.S. dollar opened the week stronger after talks to end the Middle East conflict faltered, leaving oil prices higher and the Japanese yen trading close to the 160-per-dollar level ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision. Investors are watching a sequence of central bank meetings for guidance on how the conflict and rising energy costs will…
Global military spending rose 2.9% in 2025 to $2.89 trillion, marking the 11th consecutive year of growth and lifting defense outlays to 2.5% of global GDP. The increase occurred even as U.S. spending fell 7.5% to $954 billion following a halt in new financial military assistance to Ukraine; Europe recorded a 14% surge to $864 billion that was the …
Sen. Thom Tillis announced he will withdraw his blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve after the Justice Department ceased a criminal inquiry into current Chair Jerome Powell over alleged construction cost overruns at the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Tillis said the DOJ assurance removes the single condition he had requi…
A powerful U.S. equity advance faces a significant test as an outsized slate of corporate earnings led by major technology companies converges with a Federal Reserve policy meeting and critical economic releases. Stocks have rebounded sharply this month, but investor focus will shift to profit reports from several megacaps, guidance on capital spen…
Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing on April 21 revived a longstanding question: do changes at the top of the U.S. Federal Reserve precipitate market stress? A Deutsche Bank review of over a century of data shows a mixed record, with some chairs encountering severe market episodes shortly after taking office and others seeing major shocks arrive much …
UBS Investment Research says higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict are driving headline inflation higher, but the shock is supply-driven and central banks in the US and Europe are unlikely to respond with significant rate hikes. Policy makers are more likely to look through the short-lived impact on core inflation, while investors adjust…
