Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
363 total articles
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s large-scale fiscal programme has raised hopes of a return to growth in Germany after two years of near stagnation. Economists expect a marked improvement in 2026 as spending measures gather force, but many of the structural reforms seen as necessary for a durable recovery have not been enacted. Slow federal decision-maki…
Wolfe Research analyst Stephanie Roth identifies a 90-minute window during the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the most probable time for President Trump to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair. The timing aligns with a Jan. 31 vacancy and the need to address potential attention around a Fed that did not cut rates…
Saudi Arabia will reduce the scale of its flagship Neom development following a government review of its gigaprojects. Major elements of the plan, including The Line and the Trojena ski resort, are being scaled back, and the kingdom has delayed hosting the Asian Winter Games that had been set for 2029. Analysts point to a reassessment of project sc…
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman contributed $10,000 to a GoFundMe for the family of Alex Pretti, who was fatally shot by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis. The campaign had raised more than $1 million and listed Ackman’s contribution. The donation follows an earlier $10,000 gift by Ackman to a fundraiser for an immigration officer involved…
The South African Reserve Bank faces a close call this week between keeping its policy rate unchanged or implementing a 25 basis point reduction. UBS analysts say their view is tilted toward no change, as the central bank may prefer to wait for the March meeting after reviewing the government budget due February 12 and January inflation adjustments…
The National Bank of Hungary is widely expected to maintain its current policy rate at its forthcoming meeting, with analysts citing stronger services inflation and a larger-than-anticipated fiscal deficit as key reasons to defer cuts. UBS and Bloomberg consensus forecasts point to unchanged policy for this session, even as the central bank had sig…
Brazil closed 2025 with a current account deficit equal to 3.02% of GDP, almost unchanged from 3.03% in 2024, central bank figures show. The gap narrowed from an earlier widening to nearly 3.7% of GDP and remained mostly financed by foreign direct investment, which totaled 3.41% of GDP for the year. December data showed a narrower-than-expected cur…
Analysts at UBS say sources of U.S. growth are narrowing, with much of the economy showing weakness or contraction. The outlook through 2028, they argue, depends heavily on recent surges in artificial intelligence investment concentrated in large technology companies, while consumer spending gains are skewed toward higher-income households.
Goldman Sachs raised CEO David Solomon’s total compensation to $47 million for 2025, a 20.5% increase from the prior year, following a year of elevated deal activity and trading gains that propelled the bank to the top of global M&A rankings. The package, which included a $2 million base salary and $45 million in variable pay, exceeded peer pay dis…
India is preparing to lower import duties on certain cars from the European Union to 40% from current peaks of 110% as part of a free trade agreement that could be announced as early as Tuesday. The government has agreed to an immediate cut for a limited set of vehicles from the 27-nation bloc with import prices above €15,000 ($17,739), with tariff…
Pakistan’s central bank left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 10.50% on Monday, the governor said, bucking market forecasts for another interest-rate cut after a surprise 50 basis-point reduction in December. The move follows cumulative easing of 1,150 basis points since mid-2024 and comes amid slowing headline inflation and ongoing IMF advic…
Gold extended its record run, trading above $5,100 on continued safe-haven demand from central banks and investors concerned about geopolitical risks and market volatility tied to U.S. political developments. The metal has risen sharply year-to-date and posted an unprecedented annual gain in 2025, while other precious metals also reached new highs …
The German savings banks association DSGV projects that Germany's economy will expand by 1% in 2026 after three years of stagnation. DSGV leadership and economists caution that much of the improvement reflects temporary government measures - notably public financing for infrastructure, climate programmes and higher defence spending - and warn the r…
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged this week as the central bank confronts political pressure from the White House, a threatened criminal probe of the chairman, a Supreme Court case on the potential removal of a governor, and the imminent nomination to replace Jerome Powell. While markets have so far shown limi…
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its policy rate at 2.25% at its Wednesday decision, while economists and money markets diverge on the path for monetary policy through 2026. The central bank's future actions hinge in part on renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact and the lingering effects of U.S. tariffs on certain sectors.
Supreme Court justices signaled reluctance to allow President Donald Trump to immediately remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, but appear likely to issue a limited ruling that could return the matter to lower courts for more factual development rather than settle broad questions about presidential authority to oust Fed officials or what const…
On Jan 26, gold climbed to an unprecedented $5,100 per ounce, sending shares of major gold producers higher in premarket trading. The metal's sharp rise, driven by safe-haven demand, central bank buying and expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy, has pushed gold up about 64% in 2025 and more than 18% so far this year, boosting miners' revenues…
Jan 26 - Markets face a busy week with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, a truce in transatlantic tensions over Greenland, major tech earnings from several U.S. and South Korean giants, political turbulence in Japan ahead of a snap election, and a raft of emerging market rate announcements. Investors will be watching for signals on policy direc…
This week brings a heavy slate of events that could shape market direction: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision amid worries over central bank independence, high-stakes earnings from major technology companies, a crucial quarterly update from chip-equipment leader ASML, and renewed tariff threats aimed at Canada. Investors will be watching…
A poll of a dozen economists found Sri Lanka's central bank is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 7.75% on Wednesday, as an IMF mission completes a review of the next tranche of bailout funding. Forecasts cited steady inflation, robust credit expansion and ongoing economic growth, even as the nation contends with rebuilding after Cyclone …
Gold extended its rally to a fresh record above $5,100 an ounce as investors sought shelter from geopolitical risks and market turbulence linked to U.S. policy uncertainty. Prices were buoyed by robust central bank buying, heavy inflows into exchange-traded funds, a softer dollar and speculation around shifts in U.S. monetary policy direction.
U.S. equity futures were largely muted on Monday as market participants positioned for a packed calendar that includes a two-day Federal Reserve meeting culminating in a rate decision, a fresh round of corporate earnings, and several political flashpoints. Investors are weighing a recent profit warning from a major chipmaker, a presidential threat …
A late-Friday rate check by the New York Federal Reserve that coincided with a sharp move in the yen has reduced the hurdle for intervention, yet market participants and policymakers see direct, coordinated Japan-U.S. dollar-selling as improbable for now. The episode reflects growing bilateral engagement on volatile currency moves, but domestic U.S…
The Bank of Japan warned that a weaker yen is increasingly feeding inflation, first through firms passing on higher import costs and later via second-round effects such as labour cost pass-through. The central bank kept rates unchanged but signalled vigilance and the potential for additional increases if currency weakness endures.
Since the finance minister's November budget statement, indicators suggest a modest improvement in UK economic activity: purchasing managers' surveys show the strongest business performance in months, consumer confidence has risen to levels not seen since mid-2024, and retail volumes posted an unexpectedly robust annual rise in December. However, t…
