Overview
By midday, the market is carrying two very different tones. Big Tech is holding the line, but managed care has blown a hole in the Dow. The S&P 500 proxy SPY is modestly higher, while the Nasdaq tracker QQQ gains more firmly. The industrial heavy DIA is lower, dragged by a violent selloff in health insurers. Small caps via IWM are flat-to-lower, showing a reluctance to chase.
The catalyst is not subtle. A proposed 2027 Medicare Advantage payment bump that rounds to zero landed like a hammer on managed care. UNH is deep in the red and taking the Dow with it. The market is repricing a policy path, not a quarter.
Under the surface, leadership is familiar. Technology and utilities are up, energy is positive with oil firmer, while financials and health care lag. That rotation fits a tape that wants growth stories into mega-cap earnings and the Fed, while avoiding policy friction.
Macro backdrop
Rates are hanging at high cruising altitude. The latest Treasury snapshot shows the 10-year yield around 4.24% and the 30-year near 4.82%. The 2-year sits near 3.60% and the 5-year near 3.84%. It is not a rally in bonds, but not a tantrum either, more like a steady pressure front.
Inflation expectations are placid in the middle distance. Model-based longer-run estimates cluster near the low 2s, roughly 2.33% at five years and 2.32% at ten, with a 30-year imprint closer to 2.45%. One-year modeled expectations sit around 2.6%. That mix, elevated long yields with anchored forward inflation, keeps real rates constructive and helps explain why growth leadership can coexist with a stubbornly strong gold bid. It is unusual, but not unprecedented when policy and geopolitical risks do the talking.
Price indices have cooled from last year’s peaks but remain above target levels in the latest readings. Headline CPI and core CPI indexes are still elevated on an absolute basis. With the Fed meeting in view and a CNBC survey pointing to only a limited number of additional cuts this year, traders are treating policy as a slow-moving variable. The dollar tone matters too, and it has softened against the euro. That currency pressure, the tariff chatter, and government shutdown odds all add to a background hum of risk that keeps haven flows alive.
Equities
The tape splits down the middle. QQQ is up from yesterday’s close, powered by heavyweights MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL and NVDA, all trading above their previous closes. That is the market quietly voting for earnings delivery from the mega-cap complex.
SPY is green, but the Dow proxy DIA is red, a classic price-weighted distortion on a day when one component can dictate the index’s mood. UNH is the culprit, gapping lower after a sharp rethink of 2026 revenue prospects and a stingy Medicare Advantage proposal. Health care’s slump is contagious at the index level.
Small caps via IWM are slightly lower. That retreat tracks with a higher-for-longer yield vibe and a cautious stance into the Fed and a dense earnings calendar. When policy fog thickens, smaller balance sheets often see buyers step back.
Among notable movers, Big Tech is doing exactly what the market needs it to do on a day like this. AAPL trades higher ahead of results, buoyed by fresh optimism around AI features and spring product buzz. MSFT also advances into its report, with the AI-capex narrative front and center. NVDA is higher, with the ecosystem still parsing a headline investment into CoreWeave. GOOGL is up as the market leans into ad resilience and generative AI integration. META is a small drag, off from the prior close, which may reflect pre-earnings positioning after a strong run.
Outside the core mega-caps, the picture is mixed. AMZN trades higher with a steady drumbeat of AWS growth talk and a store footprint overhaul that points to focus and margin discipline. TSLA is little changed midday, a rare pause for a stock where positioning often outruns facts. Across cyclicals, CAT is up, while home improvement bellwether HD is lower. In financials, the big banks, including JPM, BAC and GS, trade softer, an understandable pullback with yields sticky and policy uncertainty ahead.
Defense and energy stand tall. LMT, RTX and NOC are higher, a nod to ongoing budget and geopolitical concerns. Integrated oils XOM and CVX are up with crude strength. Staples are mixed to down, with PG lower. Media and telecoms are soft, with NFLX, DIS and CMCSA under pressure.
Sectors
Leadership is crisp. Technology XLK is higher, doing the heavy lifting for the broader market. Utilities XLU also advance, a curious pairing that usually signals a mixed macro read, part offense and part defense. Energy XLE is in the green with crude up.
On the back foot, health care XLV and financials XLF lag. The policy shock in managed care is the headline driver for health care. For financials, the drag looks like a blend of heavy Dow component weakness, curve shape, and the usual pre-Fed hesitation. Industrials XLI grind higher. Consumer discretionary XLY ticks up, while consumer staples XLP edge lower.
That split is the day’s message. The market is willing to pay for secular growth and regulated yield, but is backing away from policy-exposed cash flows and rate-sensitive spread businesses until the calendar clears.
Bonds
Bond proxies are mostly softer. Long duration TLT is slightly down from the prior close, and intermediates via IEF are fractionally lower. Front-end exposure SHY is marginally higher, consistent with a steady policy rate setting while the long end bears the supply and term premium load.
The Treasury curve levels remain the fulcrum. With the 10-year anchored north of 4% and the 30-year closer to 4.8%, valuations for long-duration assets and policy-sensitive equities still require careful calibration. The absence of a bond bid despite a weaker dollar underscores that this is more about domestic supply, growth resilience and policy path than a simple FX translation.
Commodities
Gold is still wearing the crown. The gold ETF GLD is trading higher after fresh record headlines, even with real yields not collapsing. The driver looks less about inflation, more about regime risk and diversification in a world of tariff threats, shutdown odds, and currency volatility. That matters.
Silver is off a touch, with SLV lower after what some called a “meme-stock moment.” Chasing secondary metals into parabolic moves is fun until liquidity thins. Today’s cooling catches that mood.
Crude is firmer. The oil fund USO is up as OPEC+ signals a likely pause on supply changes into March. The producer message is stability, and the market is pricing a modest deficit risk against persistent geopolitical friction.
Natural gas has calmed after a ripping stretch. UNG is slightly lower midday, consistent with commentary that a sharp technical unwind would be unsurprising following weather-driven spikes. Broad commodities via DBC are higher, helped by energy.
FX & crypto
The dollar is on its back foot against the euro. EURUSD sits near 1.198. The weaker dollar tone, paired with sticky long yields, continues to be the market’s odd couple. It does, however, help non-U.S. earnings translation stories and adds a tailwind to dollar-priced commodities.
In digital assets, Bitcoin trades near 88,000, roughly steady intraday, while Ethereum is firmer around 2,980 with a lift from the open. Crypto is taking its cues from risk appetite and the dollar. No sudden impulses there midday.
Notable headlines
- Managed care shock. A preliminary Medicare Advantage proposal for 2027 that effectively keeps rates flat triggered a selloff across the group. UNH also flagged a softer revenue outlook and a higher medical care ratio, compounding the pressure.
- Tariffs and autos. General Motors said it expects to surpass Ford in U.S. production while bracing for up to $4 billion in tariff costs this year. The tariff theme is growing louder after fresh threats on South Korean imports.
- Amazon resets physical retail. AMZN is converting Fresh supermarkets and Go convenience stores to Whole Foods locations in selected markets, a consolidation move that signals where the company sees brand strength and customer traction.
- Fed survey caution. A CNBC Fed survey points to only a couple of additional rate cuts even under a new chair, reinforcing the higher-for-longer narrative and keeping the curve firm at the long end.
- Gold at milestones. Reporting highlighted gold crossing a fresh record as haven demand persists despite resilient equities and sticky real yields.
- OPEC+ steady. Bloomberg reporting indicated OPEC+ is inclined to maintain current output levels in March, reinforcing the oil market’s gentle upward bias today.
- Dollar drift. Coverage emphasized the dollar sliding to multi-month lows on speculation around coordinated support for the yen, a backdrop that dovetails with today’s euro strength.
- AI infrastructure web. Nvidia’s additional investment in CoreWeave keeps attention on the AI supply chain, a tailwind for NVDA and a reminder that capex is still accelerating into the earnings prints.
Risks
- Policy shock in health care. A lower-than-expected trajectory for Medicare Advantage rates and margin pressure across managed care.
- Trade friction. Expanded tariff threats, including rhetoric directed at South Korea and broader auto and pharma supply chains.
- Fed recalibration. Fewer rate cuts than hoped and a sticky long end near 4% to 5% could weigh on duration-heavy equities.
- Shutdown odds. Rising probabilities of a U.S. government shutdown introduce operational and demand uncertainties.
- FX volatility. A weaker dollar with episodic yen strength complicates cross-border earnings and funding costs.
- AI capex sustainability. Heavy investment plans across hyperscalers raise the bar for earnings delivery and free cash flow.
What to watch next
- FOMC decision and press conference. Any shift in balance-of-risks language and guidance on the pace of future cuts.
- Mega-cap earnings. Results and guidance from MSFT, META, AAPL, and TSLA, with a focus on AI spending, capacity constraints, and margin discipline.
- Managed care commentary. Follow-up disclosures from UNH and peers on medical cost trends and pricing responses to the proposed rates.
- Energy supply signals. Any OPEC+ commentary ahead of March and inventory data for confirmation on crude’s gentle grind higher.
- Dollar dynamics. Signs of coordinated action on the yen and continued softness versus the euro.
- Tariff headlines. Clarity on auto and Korea-related measures and readthroughs for U.S. industrials and consumer pricing.
- Natural gas unwind. Weather and storage updates after a high-volatility stretch in pricing.
Midday levels referenced are as of publication. Market conditions can shift materially into the close.