Overview
Markets are leaning risk-off into the early afternoon with equities broadly lower, long-duration Treasuries under pressure, and commodities led by precious metals climbing. The catalyst set remains the weekend and Tuesday headlines around new U.S. tariff threats on several European countries tied to the Greenland dispute, plus chatter about potential retaliation from Europe. That policy shock is tracking closely with what one outlet labeled a renewed “Sell America” trade, where investors trim exposure to U.S. stocks and bonds and shift toward real assets.
At 2:25 p.m. ET, the major index ETFs are firmly red. SPY trades at 677.86 versus a previous close of 691.66, down about 2.0%. The tech-heavy QQQ is at 608.45 against 621.26, off roughly 2.1%. The industrials-tilted DIA sits at 484.87 compared with 493.42, down about 1.7%. Small caps via IWM are at 262.72 versus 265.76, lower by about 1.2%.
Commodities are the bright spot. Gold and silver are powering higher intraday and are being framed as setting fresh records by one report. The gold ETF GLD has jumped to 437.91 from 421.29, up about 4.0%, and silver via SLV is at 85.71 from 81.02, up roughly 5.8%. Energy is mixed to higher, with oil edging up and natural gas spiking as frigid temperatures lift demand expectations. The natural gas ETF UNG trades near 12.51 from 10.33, a surge of about 21%.
Rates are moving the other way. Long-duration bond proxies are lower, consistent with a selloff in Treasuries described as the worst in six months by one account. TLT is down to 86.73 from 87.80, off about 1.2%, and intermediate duration IEF is at 95.61 from 95.93, down about 0.3%, while the short-duration SHY is little changed to slightly higher.
Macro backdrop
Treasury yields most recently available through January 15 show the 2-year at 3.56%, 5-year at 3.77%, 10-year at 4.17%, and 30-year at 4.79%. Those levels reflected a modestly upward-sloping back end. Today’s price action in bond ETFs suggests a further rise in longer-dated yields intraday, even if same-day yield prints are not provided here.
Inflation data through December show headline CPI at 326.03 with core at 331.86 (index levels). Inflation expectations, by model estimates for January, sit near 2.60% at 1 year and around 2.33% to 2.32% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. The 30-year model expectation is about 2.45%. That anchor near 2.3% to 2.6% suggests long-run inflation views remain contained. However, the tariff headlines complicate the near-term picture by potentially raising import prices, and one report notes mortgage rates moving higher alongside a Treasury selloff as U.S.–E.U. tensions rise over Greenland. Higher rates at the long end can quickly tighten financial conditions, especially around housing.
Global forces are layered on top. Another article highlights a surge in Japan’s long-bond yields to record highs, a reminder that global duration pressure can spill over into U.S. curves during periods of synchronized policy or supply stresses. The European response risk is also nontrivial, with one item noting the E.U. is exploring retaliatory tariffs on a large swath of U.S. goods if new U.S. levies proceed as threatened. That back-and-forth risk supports the defensive bid in gold and silver, even as it weighs on growth-sensitive equities.
Equities
Index-level losses are consistent and broad at midday. SPY at 677.86 is down about 2.0% from Friday’s 691.66 prior close. QQQ at 608.45 is lower by roughly 2.1% from 621.26, pointing to meaningful pressure across large-cap tech and growth franchises. DIA at 484.87 is off about 1.7% from 493.42, capturing cyclical and industrial softness, while IWM at 262.72 is down around 1.2%, a milder decline than the megacap complex but still firmly negative.
News flow has been unsupportive for risk. Several pieces point to heightened trade tension, a potential European retaliation, and a revived “Sell America” narrative. The result is a de-risking posture that hits both U.S. equities and long-duration bonds, while raising the perceived value of uncorrelated stores of value. Within the equity complex, retail and discretionary names are in focus. An article notes tariff fears are weighing on retail stocks, including large e-commerce platforms and big-box peers, as companies consider how to pass through higher import costs to consumers. Another piece quotes a major e-commerce CEO describing how prior tariff waves have begun to creep into prices as inventory buffers get used up, a reminder that margin pressures can surface quickly if input costs rise faster than demand.
Semiconductors and AI-linked names have an uneven tone. On the supportive side, one report cites memory pricing tailwinds as a reason for strength in select chip stocks recently, and another highlights a bullish reassessment of a leading chipmaker’s manufacturing prospects. But the index tape for QQQ tells the broader story intraday, with growth stocks under pressure given higher long rates and headline risk around trade and regulation.
Media and streaming are active in the news cycle as well. Multiple reports discuss a major streaming platform’s revised all-cash bid for a prominent media company’s studio and streaming assets, alongside expectations for advertising growth. Those strategic moves may matter for individual equities around earnings, but they are not altering the broader risk tone today, which remains dominated by macro policy and rates.
Sectors
Leadership and laggardship are clear by sector ETF performance relative to their prior closes:
- XLK 142.04 vs 145.62, down about 2.5%. Tech is under pressure as higher long-end yields and policy uncertainty weigh on multiples, even as single-name news offers pockets of resilience.
- XLY 119.25 vs 122.30, down roughly 2.5%. This lines up with coverage of retail stocks slumping on tariff worries and the prospect of cost pass-through to consumers.
- XLF 53.17 vs 54.44, down about 2.3%. Financials are lower despite the move up in longer yields suggested by bond ETF declines, likely reflecting risk-off positioning and global policy uncertainty.
- XLI 163.31 vs 166.90, down around 2.1%. Industrial cyclicals are bearing the brunt of trade-war headlines and the prospect of European retaliation.
- XLV 155.36 vs 155.74, down about 0.2%. Health care is relatively defensive today, consistent with its lower beta profile.
- XLU 42.95 vs 43.39, down roughly 1.0%. Utilities are weaker, a typical response when longer-duration rates rise and bond proxies de-rate.
- XLE 47.65 vs 47.69, fractionally lower. Oil is modestly higher intraday, but integrated energy equities are not fully participating at midday, perhaps reflecting concerns about slower global growth if a trade confrontation escalates.
- XLP 82.35 vs 82.11, up about 0.3%. Staples are the day’s bright spot, consistent with a defensive tilt as investors favor cash-flow stability and pricing power.
The sector pattern fits a classic macro shock playbook: de-rate long-duration growth and cyclical exposure, support defensives, and keep energy mixed when oil is only modestly higher but macro growth risk is up.
Bonds
Long-duration Treasuries are offered. TLT is 86.73 versus 87.80, down about 1.2%. IEF is 95.61 versus 95.93, down around 0.3%. SHY ticks to 82.80 from 82.79, roughly flat to slightly higher. The pattern points to a bear steepening flavor intraday, where longer maturities sell off more than the front end. One article characterizes today’s Treasury tape as the worst day in six months following the tariff threat headlines. Another piece flags rising Japanese long yields, which can add a global duration headwind. Without same-day yield prints, the ETF moves and news flow are together consistent with a market repricing higher-term premia and inflation risk around trade and supply chains.
In practical terms, a steeper curve and higher mortgage-sensitive yields can tighten financial conditions for households and housing. A separate report links higher mortgage rates to Treasury market weakness amid U.S.–E.U. tensions, underscoring how quickly policy shocks can transmit to consumer finance. For portfolios, the divergence between short and long duration at midday highlights the value of curve-aware risk management as macro narratives shift.
Commodities
Precious metals are center stage. GLD at 437.91, up about 4.0% from 421.29, and SLV at 85.71, up roughly 5.8% from 81.02, capture a powerful bid into gold and silver as investors seek portfolio ballast. One account describes both metals hitting fresh records, attributing the surge to geopolitical and trade uncertainty and a search for stores of value amid policy volatility. Another compilation of charts from recent days has emphasized the intensifying speculative and industrial demand mix for silver, which, paired with gold’s safe-haven appeal, is a tailwind in this kind of macro tape.
Energy is firm to strong on natural gas. USO sits at 72.81 from 71.65, up about 1.6%. Crude’s support is consistent with weekend risk around key producing regions and steady demand expectations, even if equity energy exposure in XLE is little changed. The standout is natural gas, where UNG at 12.51 from 10.33 is up around 21%. One report earlier in the day cited a roughly 20% jump in futures as a significant cold snap drives a demand spike in the Northeastern U.S., presenting the toughest test for the gas grid in a decade. Broad commodities via DBC are also higher at 23.56 from 23.16, up about 1.7%, reflecting the metals and energy strength.
In a portfolio context, the day’s commodity leadership is the mirror of the equity and duration weakness. Real assets are absorbing safe-haven and inflation-hedge flows when policy uncertainty rises and when energy weather shocks hit simultaneously.
FX & crypto
FX data in this feed are limited to a mark on EURUSD, which sits at 1.17234 without an intraday or prior-day reference for direction. Separate coverage in the news flow describes a broader “Sell America” pattern that includes a weaker dollar bid alongside lower Treasury prices and stronger gold, but we do not have same-feed FX comparisons to quantify the move. The directional message across assets, however, aligns with that narrative.
Crypto is trading lower relative to today’s open. Bitcoin is at 89,454 versus an open of about 92,005, down roughly 2.8% intraday. Ether is at 2,990 versus an open near 3,171, off about 5.7%. A recent piece in the news flow discussed an investor rotation away from bitcoin in favor of gold based on long-run technology risk considerations. Whether or not that view gains traction broadly, today’s relative strength in precious metals versus crypto is evident in these prints.
Notable headlines
- Gold and silver hit fresh records as a response to tariff and geopolitical tension. A MarketWatch report frames metals as a refuge as investors seek to safeguard portfolios.
- The Treasury market is enduring its worst day in six months, according to one article, after new U.S. tariff threats on European allies. The selling is most acute in longer maturities, matching ETF price action.
- Retail stocks slumped as tariff fears returned, with another piece pointing to price pressures already creeping in at major e-commerce platforms as earlier inventory buffers get drawn down.
- Europe is mulling a large retaliatory tariff package if the U.S. follows through, per Bloomberg, keeping escalation risk in focus.
- Japan’s long-bond yields have surged to records, a reminder of global bond-market fragility that can spill into U.S. rates.
- Natural gas futures jumped sharply on cold-weather demand, while oil is modestly higher, reinforcing the commodity complex’s bid.
- Chip and AI narratives are mixed: a bullish note on a leading chipmaker’s manufacturing prospects and ongoing memory strength headlines, but the sector slips with the broader risk-off.
Risks
- Trade escalation risk: U.S. tariff threats and potential E.U. retaliation could dent growth, lift import prices, and unsettle supply chains.
- Rates volatility: A further bear steepening could tighten financial conditions quickly, pressuring housing and rate-sensitive equities.
- Policy and legal uncertainty: Supreme Court proceedings on tariff legality and broader policy appointments could influence the policy path and markets.
- Energy shocks: Weather-driven natural gas demand spikes and geopolitical risks in oil could add inflation and growth volatility.
- Global spillovers: Surging Japanese long yields and European market stress could transmit into U.S. duration and equity risk premia.
- Liquidity into the close: With elevated headline risk, end-of-day flows could amplify moves in thin pockets of the market.
What to watch next
- Tariff timeline and scope: Any formal U.S. announcement details and timing, and the E.U.’s response framework.
- Bond-market follow-through: Whether long-end Treasury selling persists, stabilizes, or reverses, and how the curve shape evolves.
- Housing sensitivity: Mortgage rate moves tied to the rates selloff and any new data points on demand or affordability.
- Gold and silver sustainability: Whether safe-haven demand holds if trade rhetoric cools, or accelerates if it escalates.
- Natural gas balances: Utility and pipeline updates as the cold snap unfolds and how storage draws track expectations.
- Earnings catalysts: Upcoming prints and outlooks in tech and media after strategic headlines, and whether margin commentary reflects tariff risk.
- Dollar dynamics: Confirmation or rejection of the “Sell America” pattern in FX as more price data arrive.
- Semis and AI read-through: Whether positive single-name updates can offset macro-rate pressure at the group level.
Data note: All price levels and comparisons reference values provided in this feed as of 2:25 p.m. ET. If a metric was not provided, it was not inferred.