U.S. President Donald Trump said he would keep American military assets in the Middle East in place until negotiators secure a lasting peace with Iran, and warned that non-compliance could prompt a large-scale intensification of fighting. His comments, posted on social media, followed a major Israeli operation in Lebanon and came as energy markets reassessed the fragility of a recent truce.
In his post, Trump said U.S. ships, aircraft and personnel - reinforced with additional ammunition and weaponry - would remain positioned to destroy, if needed, "a substantially degraded enemy". He expressed confidence that a durable agreement would be reached and adhered to, but cautioned that if Tehran did not comply, "If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."
Trump also asserted that, despite what he described as "fake rhetoric," Iran had agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He added: "In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!"
Both Washington and Tehran have declared victory in the five-week-old war that has caused thousands of casualties, yet core disagreements remain. Each side continues to push competing demands for a settlement that could shape regional alignments for generations.
The U.S. president's post came after Israel carried out the largest coordinated strike of the conflict on Wednesday, an operation that killed more than 250 people in Lebanon. The attack prompted a stern warning from Iran's lead negotiator that Israel's escalation, coupled with Washington's insistence that Tehran abandon its nuclear ambitions, could imperil efforts to negotiate a permanent peace agreement.
Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, said in a statement on Wednesday that "In such a situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations were unreasonable." The remark underscored Tehran's position that rising Israeli operations complicate the diplomatic track.
Markets reacted to the heightened uncertainty. Oil prices rose on Thursday amid investor concern about the tenuous truce and elevated geopolitical risk to Middle East supply, particularly doubts that restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz would ease quickly. At 0325 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading at $96.71 a barrel, up $1.96, or 2.07%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $97.01 a barrel, up $2.60, or 2.75%.
Both benchmarks remain substantially above pre-conflict levels, which stood near $70.75 for Brent and $65 for West Texas Intermediate before the joint U.S.-Israel operations began. The renewed upward pressure on prices reflects market sensitivity to any risk of disrupted oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
Equity markets also showed caution. Asian shares traded in a sober tone on Thursday amid lingering unease about the ceasefire. Japan's Nikkei hovered around flat after surging 5.4% the previous session, while the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.7%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down 0.2% as Wednesday's rally subsided. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.1%, DAX futures fell 0.5% and FTSE futures were up 0.4%.
Complicating the diplomatic picture are sharply contrasting interpretations of what the ceasefire covers and divergent priorities as talks are due to begin on Saturday in Pakistan. The United States and Israel have said that Lebanon is not included in the agreement, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said a halt in hostilities in Lebanon is an essential condition for Tehran's deal with Washington.
The Iran-backed Hezbollah reported that it fired rockets early on Thursday at the small Israeli kibbutz of Manara, alleging Israeli violations of the ceasefire and warning of further launches until what it described as a halt in "Israeli-American aggression." Pakistan's foreign ministry condemned the Israeli operations on Thursday, saying they "undermine international efforts to establish peace and stability." French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier that Lebanon "must be fully covered" by the ceasefire.
Iran's delegation was scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night. Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, posted on X that "Despite scepticism of Iranian public opinion due to repeated ceasefire violations by Israeli regime ... Iranian delegation arrives tonight in Islamabad for serious talks based on 10 points proposed by Iran."
The question of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a central point of contention. There was little evidence that the strait was functioning normally despite the truce agreement. Iran continued to assert control over the vital waterway - a conduit for about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments - and has demanded tolls for safe passage.
Tehran's demonstrated ability to threaten Gulf energy flows through its leverage over the strait, despite decades of heavy U.S. military investment in the region, has altered perceptions of power dynamics in the Gulf. Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy posted a map on Thursday showing alternative shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz to help vessels avoid naval mines, according to the semi-official Iranian news agency ISNA.
In London, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper was due to say that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz must remain toll-free, countering Iran's push to exert control over a channel long treated as an international waterway. Advance extracts of her annual foreign policy speech indicated she would stress that "The fundamental freedoms of the seas must not be unilaterally withdrawn or sold off to individual bidders. Nor can there be any place for tolls on an international waterway," and that "Freedom of navigation means navigation must be free."
The coming talks in Islamabad will test whether parties can bridge their divergent demands, whether parallel military campaigns can be restrained, and how markets will price the prospect of either a durable settlement or renewed escalation. For now, the presence of U.S. forces, the trajectory of Israeli operations, Iran's insistence on conditions tied to Lebanon, and the contested status of the Strait of Hormuz together leave key questions unresolved.