LISBON - A new opinion poll shows the moderate Socialist candidate leading decisively over the populist far-right contender in Portugal's presidential run-off scheduled for Sunday.
The survey, carried out by pollsters at Catolica University and published by broadcaster RTP late Tuesday, records Antonio Jose Seguro, a former Socialist party leader, with 67% of voting intentions. His rival, Andre Ventura, founder and leader of the anti-establishment party Chega, is placed at 33%.
In the context of Portugal's recent political history, a second-round presidential ballot is rare. The poll release noted that in the five decades since the Carnation Revolution ended authoritarian rule, a presidential run-off has occurred only once before, in 1986. Observers say that fact underlines political fragmentation and voter frustration with mainstream parties amid the growth of the far-right.
The role of the presidency
Although Portugal's presidency is mainly ceremonial, the office carries powers that shape the country's political balance. The president can veto legislation and has authority to dismiss the government, giving the occupant a potentially significant mediating role in a divided political landscape.
Antonio Jose Seguro has presented himself as a conciliatory figure, saying he would serve as a moderate, unifying president, independent of partisan politics, and that he would not act as a "shadow prime minister" or interfere with the government's day-to-day functions.
By contrast, Andre Ventura has described his intended approach as more hands-on. He has warned he would be "an interventionist president," pledging to fight decades of mainstream party corruption and to pursue a firm anti-immigration agenda. Ventura has faced criticism over remarks that have been viewed as racist toward the Roma community and South Asian immigrants.
Party dynamics and recent gains
Chega, established less than seven years ago, surged to prominence last May when it emerged as the main opposition force in parliamentary elections by securing 22.8% of the vote. Critics of Ventura contend he is using the presidential campaign in part to broaden and strengthen his party's influence across the country.
The poll was fielded between January 29 and February 2, surveying 1,601 individuals and carrying a margin of error of 2.4%.
Implications
The poll results frame the run-off as a potential affirmation of a moderate, unifying presidency, while also illustrating the limits and reach of the far-right's appeal. The outcome could affect how the presidency mediates competing parties and handles its limited but consequential powers.