WASHINGTON, April 8 - A last-minute reversal by the U.S. president on plans to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure produced an agreement for a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, but the situation remained unsettled on Wednesday as violence and regional strikes continued.
It is not yet clear that the truce has truly halted combat operations. Despite the ceasefire announcement, Israel carried out what Lebanese authorities described as its largest set of strikes on Lebanon to date, focusing on positions tied to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia - operations that Lebanese officials said demolished buildings and killed dozens without prior warning. Iran said it was weighing retaliatory strikes against Israel.
At the same time, Iran carried out attacks on oil facilities in neighboring Gulf states, including a major pipeline in Saudi Arabia that industry sources identified as part of the network used to route crude around the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates also reported missile and drone strikes.
The United States said it had suspended its own attacks on Iran but warned it was prepared to resume military action if negotiations to secure a longer-term settlement fail.
Is there actually a ceasefire?
Formally, Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week halt in hostilities under a Pakistan-brokered arrangement. In practice, fighting was still reported the following day. Iran and the U.S. are both characterizing the situation in ways that reflect their differing claims of success, and military actions by other regional actors have not stopped.
What is the status of the Strait of Hormuz?
The chokepoint remained effectively constrained. Iranian state television said a first vessel had been allowed to transit the strait with Tehran's permission after the ceasefire, but shipping contacts reported that Iran's navy continued to threaten vessels with destruction if they attempted to pass without approval.
A senior Iranian official indicated Iran might lift its blockade on Thursday or Friday ahead of scheduled peace talks, but even if restrictions eased ships would still require permission from Tehran to transit. President Trump stated the two-week pause was contingent on Iran reopening the strait, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Washington had agreed in principle to continued Iranian control of passage.
Marine traffic records showed that two Greek-owned ships and one Chinese bulk carrier had transited the strait since early Wednesday. Iran has previously negotiated safe-passage agreements with some countries, including India and Iraq. Meanwhile, German shipper Hapag-Lloyd cautioned it could take at least six weeks for traffic volumes to return to prewar norms.
How have oil markets reacted?
Oil prices dropped below $100 per barrel after the ceasefire announcement as traders priced in the possibility that roughly 20 percent of global supply that was curtailed by the conflict could be restored. That represents a marked fall from peaks near $118 per barrel reached at the end of March, though prices remain well above their levels before the fighting.
On Wednesday Brent crude was trading around $94 per barrel, compared with $70.75 before the conflict began on February 28. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate benchmark was around $95, versus $65 prewar. Market participants noted, however, that prices could surge again if hostilities resume or if Iran keeps its blockade in place.
Analysts also pointed to damage to regional oil infrastructure as a complicating factor - physical harm to facilities could constrain the speed at which production and exports return to prewar levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has said uncertainty over potential future disruptions could continue to support higher prices.
Will peace talks succeed?
Outcomes were uncertain. Both sides declared a form of victory when entering negotiations, but their demands diverge sharply. Iran's negotiating agenda includes an end to all fighting across the region, including in Lebanon; withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the region; lifting of international sanctions; retention of the right to continue enriching uranium; and continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States is pressing Iran to stop enriching uranium and remove its existing stockpiles; to rein in its ballistic missile program; and to halt funding for its regional proxies, among other conditions. These fundamentally different sets of objectives underscored how difficult it will be for talks to produce a comprehensive settlement within the two-week pause.
Market and sector implications
Energy markets and shipping lanes remain the most directly affected sectors. Oil prices have moved sharply in response to developments, and uncertainty around safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt logistics and routing for global trade. Recovery of production and exports depends in part on the condition of damaged infrastructure and on whether the strait reopens consistently.
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For now, the region and global markets remain on alert. The ceasefire has created a temporary opening for talks, but continuing violence, unresolved questions over control of the strait, and damage to oil infrastructure leave major uncertainties for energy supply, shipping operations, and commodity prices.