The music industry will hand out its most prestigious honors on Sunday when the Grammy Awards convene in Los Angeles, with the album of the year prize shaping up as a razor-close contest among Bad Bunny, Kendrick Lamar and Lady Gaga.
Trevor Noah will return to the stage as host for a sixth time, and he has indicated this will be his final appearance in that role. The show is scheduled to air live on CBS and will stream on Paramount+ at 5 p.m. Los Angeles time (0100 GMT on Monday).
Award analysts say any of the three leading nominees could walk away with album of the year. None of the trio has previously won that top album honor, which was awarded last year to Beyonce for "Cowboy Carter."
A 'super tight' race
Paul Grein, awards editor at Billboard, described the album category as "going to be super tight." Each contender brings a different historical milestone within reach. Bad Bunny, the Puerto Rican rapper scheduled to headline next months Super Bowl halftime show, is nominated for "Debi Tirar Más Fotos." A win for that album would mark the first time a Spanish-language album has won album of the year since the Grammys began 68 years ago.
If Kendrick Lamar takes the prize for "GNX," he would become the first solo male rapper to win album of the year. To date, only two hip-hop acts have received the award: Lauryn Hill as a solo female artist and the duo Outkast. For Lady Gaga, a victory for "Mayhem" would represent her first trophy among the Grammys' top four prizes despite a career spanning more than two decades.
Grein predicted Lamar would secure the trophy, noting Lamar won five Grammys a year ago for the single "Not Like Us."
Current events and cultural debates
Grein said recent public controversies could influence voting behavior in ways that benefit Bad Bunny. The artist recently omitted the continental United States from his concert tour, citing fear that federal agents enforcing President Donald Trumps immigration policies could attend shows and arrest fans. His upcoming selection to perform at the Super Bowl halftime show on February 8 drew criticism from some who argued that the NFL's marquee entertainment should be performed in English.
"I think the culture wars work in his favor," Grein said. "There are people who will vote for him in part - not only for this reason, but in part - as a rebuke to President Trumps anti-immigrant rhetoric."
Industry representation and voting
Kendrick Lamar and Lady Gaga are represented by Universal Music Group. Bad Bunny is signed to Puerto Rican label Rimas Entertainment. Winners across categories will be determined by the Recording Academy's roughly 15,000 voting members, who include artists, songwriters, producers and engineers. The academy's membership has been reconstituted over the past seven years with a view to boosting diversity; about 1,000 Latin Grammys voters became eligible to vote this year, and 73% of members have joined since 2019.
Recording Academy Chief Executive Harvey Mason Jr. said the changes were necessary to reflect music's shifting global popularity. "For us, the academy, we had to keep up with that," he said. "We have to make sure we are responsible and were honoring music regardless of where it comes from." Mason pointed to the rising visibility of genres such as KPop and Afrobeats as part of the reason for membership reform.
Other categories and nominees
KPop is represented in the song of the year category, which honors songwriters. "Golden," from the Netflix film "KPop Demon Hunters," will compete against "APT.," a duet between KPop singer Ros E9 and Bruno Mars. "APT." is also in contention for record of the year, where it faces Kendrick Lamars "luther" collaboration with SZA and Lady Gagas "Abracadabra."
In the best new artist field, R&B and soul musician Leon Thomas is widely viewed as a frontrunner. Thomas received six Grammy nominations in total, including an album of the year nomination for "Mutt." His competitors in the best new artist category include British soul-pop singer Olivia Dean and pop musician Alex Warren.
Scheduled performers for the broadcast include Sabrina Carpenter, Addison Rae and all eight nominees for best new artist. Producers have indicated there will be surprise appearances, naming performers and presenters who have not been publicly announced.
The outcome in the headline categories will be determined by a voting body that has changed substantially in recent years, and the results are likely to reflect both musical judgment and the broader cultural debates that have accompanied some nominees. As voters cast their ballots, the ceremony will serve as a snapshot of how the Recording Academy now balances tradition, genre expansion and social currents in choosing its winners.