Trade Ideas January 24, 2026

Zoetis Is Getting Cheaper While the Business Stays Sticky

A mean-reversion setup near the lower end of the 52-week range with improving odds if momentum flips.

By Nina Shah ZTS
Zoetis Is Getting Cheaper While the Business Stays Sticky
ZTS

Zoetis has drifted down toward the lower end of its 52-week range while key quality signals remain intact: strong profitability metrics, solid liquidity, and a defensible animal health franchise. With bearish momentum showing signs of exhaustion, the setup favors a defined-risk long trade aimed at a rebound back toward key moving averages and prior support.

Key Points

  • ZTS is trading near $124, well below the 52-week high of $177.40 and closer to the 52-week low of $115.25.
  • Valuation has cooled to ~20.6x earnings and ~14.3x EV/EBITDA while profitability remains strong (ROE ~0.49, ROA ~0.175).
  • Technical posture is weak but potentially inflecting: price near the 50-day SMA (~$123.18) with room to mean-revert toward the 50-day EMA (~$126.56) and beyond.
  • Short interest rose into 12/31/2025, creating potential fuel for a rebound if resistance breaks.

Zoetis (ZTS) isn’t the kind of business that usually trades like a falling knife. Animal health tends to be steady, demand is diversified across therapies and geographies, and the company’s economics are typically resilient. Yet here we are: the stock is sitting around $124, far below its 52-week high of $177.40 (02/06/2025) and not too far above the 52-week low of $115.25 (11/19/2025).

The setup is straightforward: the stock looks oversold on momentum and undervalued relative to the quality of the underlying business, which makes it an attractive candidate for a defined-risk rebound trade. I’m not pitching a heroic multi-year call here. This is a trade idea built around mean reversion and a shift from bearish momentum back to neutral or bullish.

One reason I like this type of opportunity in ZTS specifically: it’s liquid, widely followed, and typically doesn’t need a perfect news cycle to bounce. When sellers get exhausted, it can move on “nothing” except positioning and a mild re-rating.


What Zoetis does (and why the market should care)

Zoetis develops and sells medicines, vaccines, diagnostics, biodevices, genetic tests, and precision animal health technology. The business spans the United States and International markets, and it sits in the Health Technology sector under Pharmaceuticals: Major.

For traders, the key point isn’t just “pets are popular.” It’s that animal health spending has become more recurring and more preventive over time. That shows up in broad industry tailwinds, like increased focus on preventive care and rising veterinary spend. Recent market commentary around canine vaccines and companion animal health points to steady, multi-year demand growth rather than one-off spikes.

When a company operates in a structurally supported niche and still gets marked down hard, I pay attention. Not because the market is always wrong, but because it often overshoots on uncertainty and positioning.


Where the stock sits today

Metric Value
Current price$124.07
Previous close$124.40
Market cap$54.68B
52-week high$177.40
52-week low$115.25
Dividend yield~1.58%
P/E~20.62-20.90
Price-to-sales~5.82
EV/EBITDA~14.32
Free cash flow$2.24B

The “undervalued” angle here is not about ZTS being statistically cheap on every metric. It’s still a premium business, and premium businesses rarely look cheap on price-to-book (ZTS is around 10.13x) or price-to-sales (~5.82x). The more relevant point is that at a ~20.6x P/E and ~14.3x EV/EBITDA, the market is no longer paying an extreme multiple for the franchise, even though profitability remains strong.

And profitability really is strong:

  • Return on equity: ~0.491
  • Return on assets: ~0.175
  • Liquidity: current ratio ~3.64, quick ratio ~2.28

That’s not a distressed profile. The balance sheet has leverage (debt-to-equity around 1.31), but liquidity ratios this high suggest Zoetis has room to operate even if the macro tape gets choppy.


Technicals: oversold-ish, bearish momentum, but near a pivot zone

This is where the trade gets interesting. ZTS is not flashing a clean bullish reversal yet, but it’s close enough to structure a trade with defined downside.

  • RSI: ~46.9 (not deeply oversold, but below “comfortably bullish”)
  • MACD: bearish momentum (MACD line ~-0.046 vs signal ~0.217; histogram ~-0.262)
  • Key averages:
    • 10-day SMA ~124.97
    • 20-day SMA ~125.84
    • 50-day SMA ~123.18
    • 50-day EMA ~126.56

Price around $124 is basically sitting on top of the 50-day SMA (~$123.18), while still below the intermediate averages (20-day and 50-day EMA). That’s classic “compression” behavior: the stock is trying to decide whether it’s going to reclaim trend levels or roll over into another leg down.

What tilts me bullish for a tactical trade is that you don’t need a full trend reversal to make money. You just need a snapback toward the 20-day and 50-day EMA area, and ideally a retest of prior support zones that now act like resistance.


Positioning: short interest is rising, which can work both ways

Short interest increased to 13,742,200 shares as of 12/31/2025, up from 10,884,389 on 12/15/2025. Days to cover is about 2.09, which is not “squeeze city,” but it does matter. If ZTS catches a catalyst and pushes through resistance, incremental buying can be amplified by shorts reducing exposure.

At the same time, short volume has been consistently heavy in recent sessions (for example, on 01/23/2026, short volume was 911,878 out of total volume 1,407,435). That’s a sign sentiment is still skeptical, and it’s exactly why we structure this as a trade with a stop instead of a blind long-term hold.


Trade plan (actionable)

This is a long idea aimed at a rebound into moving-average resistance. I want to be involved near current levels, but I also want a stop that acknowledges the possibility that the market is right and this rolls over toward the lower end of the range.

  • Entry: $124.10
  • Stop loss: $118.90
  • Target: $134.50

Time horizon: mid term (45 trading days). That window gives ZTS time to (1) stop making lower highs, (2) reclaim the 20-day/50-day EMA zone, and (3) potentially retest a higher consolidation area. It’s also long enough for sentiment and positioning to reset if the market has gotten overly bearish.

How I’d manage it:

  • If ZTS closes convincingly back above the $126.50 area (near the 50-day EMA), I’d expect momentum to improve, and I’d be more patient with the position.
  • If ZTS loses the low $120s quickly and volume accelerates, I wouldn’t “average down.” The stop exists for a reason.

Why this can work: valuation meets quality

At roughly $54.7B market cap, ZTS is priced as a mature compounder, not a hyper-growth story. That’s fine. What matters is that the market still assigns it strong profitability metrics (ROE ~0.49), and it generates meaningful cash (free cash flow about $2.24B). Even after the drawdown from $177 to the low $120s, ZTS still isn’t “cheap” in absolute terms, but it’s no longer priced as if nothing can go wrong either.

That’s where the opportunity sits: a premium company trading like investors are tired of paying premium multiples. When that happens, rebounds often come from modest changes in tone rather than blockbuster news.


Potential catalysts (what could spark the bounce)

  • Momentum shift: A MACD turn upward (histogram improving toward zero) and a reclaim of the 20-day SMA (~$125.84) could bring systematic buyers back.
  • Mean reversion to trend: A push toward the 50-day EMA (~$126.56) and beyond can trigger “trend repair” flows.
  • Industry tailwinds staying in the conversation: Ongoing positive focus on companion animal health and vaccines can help sentiment, even without company-specific headlines.
  • Positioning unwind: With short interest recently rising (12/31/2025 data), any upside follow-through can force incremental covering.

Risks and counterarguments

I like the setup, but I don’t love pretending this is risk-free. Here are the main ways this trade can fail:

  • Momentum can stay bearish longer than you think. MACD is still in bearish mode, and RSI around 47 isn’t screaming “washed out.” ZTS could chop or drift lower without offering a clean bounce.
  • Support may not hold. The stock is hovering near the 50-day SMA, but that’s not the same as a hard floor. If the market decides the next destination is the $115 area (the 52-week low), the downside can accelerate quickly.
  • Valuation compression risk. Even after the decline, ZTS still trades around ~20.6x earnings and ~5.8x sales. If investors demand a meaningfully lower multiple for “steady growers,” the stock can stay cheap-looking for a while.
  • Leverage sensitivity. Debt-to-equity around 1.31 isn’t alarming for a stable operator, but it can amplify equity downside if the market gets concerned about financing costs or cash flow durability.
  • Counterargument to the thesis: This might not be “oversold,” it might be a re-pricing. ZTS is a high-quality name, but markets sometimes permanently reset what they’re willing to pay for quality. If the prior premium multiple was the anomaly, then $124 might not be a bargain - it could be the new normal.

Bottom line

ZTS around $124 looks like a classic case of a high-quality franchise trading with pessimistic momentum. The company’s profitability metrics (ROE ~0.49, ROA ~0.175), liquidity (current ratio ~3.64), and cash generation (FCF ~$2.24B) don’t line up with a stock that should be perpetually weak. Meanwhile, the chart is sitting at a spot where mean reversion is plausible if sellers lose control.

I’m taking the long side with a clear stop because I want exposure to a rebound, not a slow bleed. The trade makes sense if ZTS can reclaim key moving averages and unwind some of the recent bearish positioning.

What would change my mind: A decisive breakdown below the low $120s that fails to recover quickly, or continued bearish momentum that pushes the stock toward the 52-week low area. In that scenario, the “oversold and undervalued” narrative stops mattering, and capital preservation matters more.

Risks

  • Bearish momentum persists (MACD negative), preventing a sustained rebound.
  • Breakdown risk: failure around the low $120s could open a move toward the 52-week low near $115.
  • Valuation can compress further even if fundamentals remain solid (multiple de-rating).
  • Leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.31) can amplify downside if sentiment worsens or financing conditions tighten.

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