TRX Gold (TRX) is doing something it hasn’t done in a while - it’s forcing the market to pay attention. The stock just tagged a new 52-week high at $1.79 on 01/28/2026, and even after backing off intraday, it’s still trading around $1.70. That’s not a sleepy micro-cap drift. That’s a re-pricing.
The thesis is straightforward: TRX is trying to build shareholder value by scaling the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania, and the tape is starting to believe it. With gold-price headlines staying hot (multiple major-bank-style forecasts in the news flow pointing toward $4,000 gold by mid-2026) and TRX-specific operational updates pointing to improving production and project economics, this is the kind of setup where a small operator can catch a very big bid.
But here’s the nuance: the stock is also extremely extended. The RSI is screaming overbought at 85.8. That doesn’t mean it has to fall tomorrow, but it does mean you want a plan that respects volatility and avoids chasing.
Below is a trade idea built around a mid-term continuation attempt, using the breakout area as a line in the sand.
What TRX does and why the market should care
TRX Gold Corporation is a gold producer and developer focused on the Buckreef Gold Project in the Geita District of Tanzania. The company’s business is simple in concept (dig, process, sell gold), but the market’s willingness to reward it comes down to two things:
- Operational execution - consistent production, controlled costs, stable throughput.
- Credible growth - a pathway to larger-scale production and longer mine life without destroying shareholders through dilution.
The reason investors care right now is that TRX has been communicating progress on both fronts. In company updates referenced in the news flow, TRX highlighted increased production and a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for Buckreef projecting average annual production of 62,000 ounces over a 17.6-year mine life (from the Q3 2025 results coverage dated 07/15/2025). That’s the kind of long-duration asset profile that can justify a higher valuation if execution is credible.
TRX also previously discussed the processing plant expansion to 2,000 tonnes per day being operational (coverage dated 07/15/2024). More throughput matters because it can translate directly into more ounces and better fixed-cost absorption - if recoveries and grades cooperate.
The stock setup: extended, but not random
Let’s start with what the chart is already telling us through the indicators:
| Metric | Value | What it implies |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1.70 | Pulling back from highs but holding elevated levels |
| 52-week high | $1.79 | Fresh breakout attempt |
| SMA (10 / 20 / 50) | $1.16 / $1.04 / $0.89 | Price is far above trend - bullish, but stretched |
| RSI | 85.8 | Overbought - risk of sharp shakeouts |
| MACD state | Bullish momentum | Trend still pushing higher |
| 30-day average volume | ~4.18M | Liquidity improving vs prior periods |
Today’s tape is volatile: open $1.78, high $1.79, low $1.68, and a current print around $1.70, down about -4.5% on the day. That’s not unusual behavior after a breakout tag. In fact, it’s often where the best trades come from - if you can define your risk.
Short interest is rising - and that can matter
One underappreciated part of this setup is positioning. Short interest has climbed meaningfully into mid-January:
- Short interest on 01/15/2026: 8,602,385 shares
- Short interest on 12/31/2025: 6,198,938 shares
- Days to cover on 01/15/2026: ~4.13
In plain English: more investors have been leaning against this move, and if the stock keeps grinding higher, that can add fuel via forced covering. It doesn’t guarantee a squeeze, but it increases the odds that upside moves become sharper than people expect.
We also see elevated short volume in recent daily prints (for example, on 01/27/2026, short volume was 4,481,685 out of 7,505,517 total volume). Again, not proof of anything by itself, but it reinforces that TRX is currently a battleground stock.
Valuation framing: small cap, big expectations baked in
TRX’s market cap is roughly $487.8M with about 286.96M shares outstanding. The price-to-book ratio is listed at 8.11, and the P/E is negative (-102.01), which tells you profitability is either thin, inconsistent, or currently pressured.
That valuation mix matters. A near-$500M market cap can still be “small” in the gold equity universe, but a high P/B implies investors are already paying up for the future, not the past. So the bull case here is not “this is cheap.” The bull case is: the market is willing to re-rate the asset if Buckreef continues to de-risk operationally and scale credibly, especially with macro tailwinds from the gold price.
If gold stays strong and TRX executes, the stock can remain expensive on traditional ratios for a long time. If execution slips, a rich multiple gives the downside teeth.
Catalysts that could keep this moving (or restart the move after a pullback)
- Operational follow-through at Buckreef - the market tends to reward consistency more than one-off strong quarters.
- Updates tied to the Buckreef PEA trajectory - anything that improves confidence in the 62,000 oz/year, 17.6-year mine-life narrative can support a higher floor.
- Gold price strength - recent news flow has centered on gold pushing through historic levels and forecasts reaching toward $4,000 by mid-2026. Miners are leverage on that theme.
- Positioning dynamics - rising short interest (8.6M shares; ~4.1 days to cover) can amplify upside if the stock refuses to break down.
Trade plan (actionable)
I’m treating this as a mid term (45 trading days) momentum-continuation idea. Why mid-term? Because TRX is overbought on RSI and likely to chop around. You want enough time for a pullback to settle, for buyers to defend a level, and for a second push higher to develop. The goal is to participate in the next leg without getting shaken out by normal volatility.
- Direction: Long
- Entry: $1.62
- Target: $2.10
- Stop loss: $1.39
How I’d manage it:
The entry at $1.62 is intentionally below today’s low area ($1.68) to avoid buying the first dip. If TRX is real, it should be able to retest and hold a higher-low region while still staying well above the rising moving averages (SMA 10 near $1.16). The stop at $1.39 is below the recent consolidation zone implied by the sharp move up and gives room for volatility without turning the trade into an open-ended hope position.
The $2.10 target is a continuation objective: it assumes the breakout has legs and the stock can extend beyond the $1.79 spike. If TRX starts to trend and shorts begin to cover into strength, a round-number move through $2 is plausible. If it can’t reclaim momentum quickly after entry, I wouldn’t sit in dead money for the full 45 days.
If TRX loses $1.39, I’m out. A high-RSI breakout that fails and breaks structure tends to unwind faster than people think.
Counterargument to the bullish thesis
The cleanest counterargument is that this move is mostly macro and momentum. Gold headlines have been extremely supportive, and small-cap miners often rip harder than fundamentals justify when the metal is hot. TRX’s negative P/E and high P/B leave less room for error. If gold cools off or risk appetite fades, the same leverage that drives upside can punish holders quickly.
Risks (read these like they matter, because they do)
- Overbought conditions: An RSI around 85.8 is a classic recipe for sharp pullbacks, even if the bigger trend remains up. You can be right and still get stopped if you chase.
- Execution risk at a single key asset: TRX is heavily tied to Buckreef. Any operational hiccup (throughput variability, recovery issues, mining challenges) can hit the narrative fast.
- Gold price sensitivity: The stock is effectively leveraged exposure to gold. If gold retraces meaningfully, miners usually move more than the commodity.
- Short interest can cut both ways: Rising short interest (8.6M shares) can create squeeze fuel, but it can also signal informed skepticism. If the tape rolls over, shorts may press and deepen declines.
- Volatility and liquidity shocks: Even with multi-million share days, this is still a sub-$2 name that can gap on sentiment. Today’s range ($1.68 to $1.79) is a reminder.
Conclusion: I’m constructive, but disciplined
TRX is acting like a company the market wants to re-rate: new highs, strong momentum indicators, and a coherent operational growth story centered on Buckreef (including the projected 62,000 oz/year profile over a long mine life). With gold tailwinds and positioning that could exacerbate upside, I like the long setup if you treat it as a structured trade, not a marriage.
I’m bullish on the idea of TRX creating shareholder value, but I’m not interested in paying any price. I want the pullback entry, I want the stop respected, and I want the stock to prove it can hold the breakout zone.
What would change my mind? A breakdown that takes TRX below $1.39 would tell me the breakout failed and the market is no longer rewarding the story. Separately, if momentum fades and the stock can’t regain traction after a reasonable pullback, I’d step aside and look for a cleaner base.