Gold just punched through a psychological ceiling that would have sounded absurd a year ago, and the market’s first reaction has been predictable: chase the metal, then debate which miners “deserve” the move. Newmont is sitting right in the middle of that argument.
Here’s my take: Newmont is a golden opportunity the market is still undervaluing, even after the run. Not because the stock is “cheap” on a basic P/E screen (it isn’t), but because the company has the balance sheet, liquidity, and scale to translate a higher gold regime into real free cash flow, and the market still treats it like a trade that can evaporate overnight.
That said, price action matters. NEM just tagged a fresh 52-week high of $129.2499 today (01/26/2026) and closed around $125.90 after swinging through a wide intraday range. Momentum is bullish, but it’s also stretched. So this is not a blind chase. It’s an actionable plan built around a defined level, with a stop that respects how fast miners can reverse.
Thesis in one line: If gold is resetting higher, Newmont’s cash flow and financial flexibility deserve a higher multiple than the market is willing to grant, and the chart is still in an uptrend even after today’s pullback.
What Newmont does, and why the market should care
Newmont Corporation is a global precious metals producer, primarily gold, with exposure to other metals including copper, silver, lead, and zinc. The geographic spread is broad: Canada, Mexico, Suriname, Argentina, Peru, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ghana, and the U.S. That diversification isn’t just a brochure bullet. In mining, jurisdictional risk is real, and a global footprint can soften the blow when one region throws a curveball.
More importantly, Newmont is large enough to matter to generalist investors. At roughly $137.39B in market cap with about 1.091B shares outstanding, it’s not a thinly traded miner that only moves on niche flows. It trades real volume (about 13.25M shares today; ~9.19M average recently), and it’s liquid enough for institutions to express a macro view on gold without getting cute.
When gold is in a momentum phase, miners can behave like leveraged ETFs on the metal. When gold is in a regime change, the winners are usually the miners that can turn price into cash while keeping the balance sheet intact. Newmont has the financial profile to be in that conversation.
The numbers that make the “undervaluing” case
Let’s talk fundamentals and valuation in the same breath, because miners are where those two collide.
| Metric | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $137.39B | Scale and index relevance, attracts broad capital |
| P/E | ~19.3x | Not “cheap” optically, but context matters in a gold upcycle |
| EV/EBITDA | ~11.6x | More useful than P/E for miners; still not excessive if cash flows expand |
| Free cash flow | $6.122B | Real cash generation to support dividends and reinvestment |
| P/FCF | ~22.16x | Looks rich - unless FCF is set to step up with gold pricing |
| Debt-to-equity | ~0.16 | Low leverage gives resilience if gold volatility spikes |
| Current ratio | ~2.04 | Strong liquidity buffer (important in capital-intensive mining) |
| ROE / ROA | ~21.6% / ~13.1% | Profitability is solid for the business model |
| Dividend yield | ~0.82% | Not the main story, but a signal of capital return discipline |
Here’s the nuance: at $125.90, Newmont is not trading like a “value stock.” Price-to-book is about 4.12x and price-to-sales about 6.31x. On a superficial screen, you could argue the market is already pricing in a lot of good news.
But the “undervaluing” argument isn’t about last year’s gold price. It’s about the market’s lingering skepticism that the current gold tape is durable enough to justify a sustained rerating. If gold remains elevated, miners can see disproportionate changes in free cash flow, and multiples that look full on trailing figures can compress quickly as cash generation rises.
We also have a profitability and balance sheet mix that tends to hold up better than people assume in a drawdown. A 0.16 debt-to-equity profile plus a 2.04 current ratio is not the footprint of a company that needs perfect commodity pricing just to survive.
Why the tape is supporting the thesis (but also warning you)
Technically, NEM is in a strong uptrend. The moving averages are stacked in the right direction: 10-day SMA $117.98, 20-day SMA $111.25, 50-day SMA $100.33. That’s classic trend structure.
Momentum is still positive: MACD is in bullish momentum with a positive histogram. But we can’t ignore the heat level. RSI is about 81.1, which is objectively overbought. Overbought doesn’t mean “sell,” but it does mean entries should be planned, not emotional. Today was also a big day: the stock opened around $127.71, printed $129.2499, dipped to roughly $125.69, and sits near $125.90 now. That’s volatility you have to respect.
Short interest doesn’t look like a powder keg. Days to cover has been around 2.19 to 2.60 recently, which is not nothing, but it’s not a squeeze setup either. This is more about fundamentals and gold’s macro bid than forced buying.
What’s driving the narrative right now
Today’s backdrop is about the commodity complex and safe-haven flows. Gold moved above $5,000 and even traded around $5,100 in the latest headlines, with geopolitical tension and policy uncertainty acting as fuel. When that happens, miners get pulled into the spotlight, and Newmont tends to be a first stop because it’s liquid and widely owned.
There’s also a perception shift that matters: Newmont is described in recent coverage as the only gold producer in the S&P 500. Whether you agree with that framing or not, the point is that it becomes the “default” equity vehicle for gold exposure for a lot of generalists. Default vehicles often get rerated during regime changes.
Catalysts (what could push NEM higher from here)
- Gold holding above key psychological levels: if spot gold consolidates above $5,000 instead of mean-reverting, miners can see sustained inflows.
- Continuation breakout: today’s $129.2499 high is a clean reference point. A reclaim and close above that area can trigger systematic and momentum buying.
- Cash flow narrative gaining traction: with $6.122B in free cash flow already on the board, any confirmation that cash generation is stepping up tends to change how investors talk about “fair” multiples.
- Macro uncertainty: geopolitical tension and policy noise can keep safe-haven demand elevated longer than skeptics expect.
The trade plan (actionable)
I’m treating this as a mid term (45 trading days) momentum-plus-fundamentals trade. Why 45 days? Because Newmont is extended (RSI above 80), and the highest-probability path is usually some consolidation or a controlled pullback before another leg higher. You want enough time for that digestion without turning this into a “marry the position” idea.
- Trade direction: Long
- Entry: $125.90
- Stop loss: $117.90
- Target: $139.00
Why these levels? The entry anchors to the current price zone after today’s fade from highs. The stop at $117.90 is intentionally below the 10-day SMA (~$117.98) to avoid getting wicked out on a routine test of trend support. If NEM loses that area decisively, it’s a signal the move is shifting from “strong uptrend” to “distribution.” The $139.00 target is a pragmatic extension from the recent $129.25 high - not a moonshot, but a level that would reflect continued gold strength and a market willing to pay up for the cash flow leverage.
Position sizing matters more than usual here. With intraday swings like today’s, a too-large position turns a normal pullback into a bad decision.
Risks and counterarguments (don’t ignore these)
The bull case is straightforward, which is exactly why you need to stress test it. Here are the key risks I’m watching:
- Overbought conditions can snap back fast: an RSI around 81 is a warning sign. Even in strong uptrends, miners can drop 8%-15% quickly without breaking the longer trend.
- Gold can reverse on headlines: safe-haven trades are notoriously fickle. If tensions cool or policy fears fade, gold can retrace sharply, and NEM will likely amplify the move.
- Valuation can cap upside in the near term: at roughly 19.3x P/E and 22.2x P/FCF, the stock isn’t priced like a bargain basement cyclical. If investors decide “this is as good as it gets,” multiple expansion may not show up.
- Operating and jurisdictional complexity: Newmont’s global footprint is a double-edged sword. Broad geographic exposure can reduce single-country risk, but it also increases execution complexity across regulatory regimes.
- Gap risk: miners can gap on macro moves. Stops are not guaranteed fills if the whole sector reprices overnight.
Counterargument to my thesis: you could argue the market is not undervaluing Newmont at all - it’s simply pricing it correctly as a mature, capital-intensive miner with volatile earnings power. Under that view, today’s valuation is already a fair reflection of a gold-led boom, and the risk/reward from $125-$129 is skewed toward disappointment if gold cools.
I don’t fully buy that, mainly because Newmont’s balance sheet metrics (low debt-to-equity, strong liquidity) and current free cash flow profile suggest it deserves more benefit of the doubt than a highly levered miner. But it’s a legitimate pushback, especially given how extended the chart is.
Conclusion: bullish stance, with a clear line in the sand
I’m constructive on Newmont here. The market is treating NEM like a hot gold proxy that can be rented and returned. I think that misses the point: this is a massive, liquid miner with meaningful free cash flow ($6.122B), low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.16), and a chart that remains in a clean uptrend despite being overbought.
My stance would change if the stock loses the trend support area around the 10-day moving average and fails to reclaim it. Practically, that’s why the stop at $117.90 exists. A decisive breakdown there would tell me this move was more about short-term gold excitement than a durable rerating.
If gold stays bid and NEM can base above trend support, I like the odds of a push back through $129 and toward $139 over the next 45 trading days.