Hook & thesis
Kaspi is no longer just a P2P payments success story. The company’s real lever for durable earnings growth is the migration of activity inside its Super App toward m‑commerce and merchant services — higher‑frequency customer interactions that convert into marketplace GMV, merchant fees and cross‑sell of fintech products. At a market cap of roughly $15.5 billion and a P/E near 7.0, the market is pricing in a lot of uncertainty. I believe a disciplined, mid‑term buy captures asymmetric upside if Kaspi continues to shift revenue mix from low‑margin P2P flows to higher‑take‑rate merchant commerce.
Why the market should care
Kaspi operates three tightly integrated platforms: Payments (consumer and merchant payments), Marketplace (merchant-to-consumer commerce) and Fintech (deposits, consumer loans and other financial services delivered in the Super App). That integration is potent: payments create customer touchpoints, marketplace increases transaction frequency and fintech captures wallet balances and credit demand. When merchant commerce grows as a share of overall GMV, the company benefits from higher take rates, stickier merchant relationships and more opportunities to cross‑sell lending and deposits.
Two datapoints matter.
- The market capitalization sits at approximately $15,512,710,802 and the company trades at a P/E of about 7.01 with a PB of 3.63 — valuation metrics that imply the market is either pricing in near‑term growth headwinds or elevated risk premia.
- Kaspi yields a cash dividend of about 5.68%, which supports income‑sensitive investor demand even while growth transitions occur.
Supporting evidence from recent corporate activity
Kaspi issued a $650 million USD Eurobond at a 6.25% coupon maturing in 2030 in March 2025, providing capital for corporate purposes and optional inorganic growth. More recently, the company signed an agreement to acquire Rabobank’s Turkish subsidiary, with closure expected in mid‑2026 (announcement 11/28/2025). That deal signals management is pursuing merchant expansion beyond Kazakhstan — a geographic lever to increase marketplace GMV and diversify merchant revenue.
At the same time, the company has compact trading dynamics: 52‑week range is $70.61 to $111.45, and recent technicals put the stock near $79.21. Short interest has ticked higher in recent months (settlement 01/15/2026 short interest ~1,573,812 shares), suggesting skeptics are positioning for downside, but days to cover remain modest (about 3.68), so short pressure could amplify volatility rather than drive a long structural decline.
Valuation framing
At a market cap of roughly $15.5B and earnings multiple of 7.0, Kaspi looks relatively cheap compared with high‑growth fintech peers, though cross‑country comparisons are imperfect because Kaspi mixes marketplace, payments and banking. The current price is about 29% below its 52‑week high of $111.45, but only ~12% above the 52‑week low of $70.61 — a range that reflects both growth opportunity and headline legal/regulatory concerns from 2025.
Valuation makes sense only if the company can convert marketplace GMV growth into improved margins and predictable fintech earnings. If merchant adoption increases take rates and average revenue per user (ARPU), earnings can expand materially without a miraculous top‑line rebound — which would justify a move toward the prior multiples and a return toward the $95–$110 range. That is the upside scenario this trade targets.
Trade plan (actionable)
Entry price: $79.21
Stop loss: $72.00
Target price: $95.00
Position horizon: mid term (45 trading days). I expect a 6–9 week window is sufficient for one or more catalysts — a quarter update or progress on the Rabobank Turkey acquisition — to move sentiment and re‑rate the multiple if merchant GMV shows continued acceleration.
Why these levels? Entry is set at the current trading price to capture the market's recent consolidation. The stop at $72 sits below the recent short‑term support area and gives room for intraday volatility while limiting downside to approximately $7.21 per share (~9.1% from entry). The target of $95 implies upside of $15.79 (~19.9%) and produces an acceptable risk/reward ratio of roughly 2.2:1 for a swing trade. Adjust position sizing to cap risk at a pre‑determined portfolio percentage.
Catalysts to watch
- Regulatory close of the Rabobank Turkey acquisition (expected mid‑2026) — adds merchant footprint and cross‑border volumes.
- Quarterly metrics showing rising share of marketplace GMV versus P2P transfers and improving take‑rates.
- Management commentary on merchant ARPU and retention in quarterly calls; any upgraded guidance would be a near‑term re‑rating event.
- Resolution or material progress on the 2025 class action and related sanctions allegations; legal clarity would materially reduce risk premium.
Risks and counterarguments
Kaspi’s upside is meaningful, but several non‑trivial risks could invalidate the trade:
- Regulatory and legal overhang: Multiple class action filings in February 2025 allege undisclosed dealings with Russian entities and related‑party transactions. Sanctions risk or an adverse legal outcome could impair investor sentiment and restrict cross‑border activities.
- Execution risk on merchant adoption: Turning P2P users into paying marketplace customers requires product execution, competitive pricing and merchant retention. If marketplace take‑rates stall or merchants prefer other channels, the margin expansion scenario weakens.
- Acquisition risk: The Rabobank Turkey deal needs regulatory approvals and integration execution. Any delay or unexpected costs would hit near‑term cashflow and might push the company to conserve capital rather than accelerate merchant initiatives.
- Macroeconomic / currency exposure: Kaspi operates in a single emerging market and will be exposed to currency moves, inflation and consumer credit cycles. A macro slowdown would reduce transaction volumes and fintech demand.
- Funding and leverage: The $650 million Eurobond issuance in 03/21/2025 increases debt service obligations; if earnings miss, higher financing costs could compress free cash flow and limit buybacks or dividend payouts.
Counterargument to the thesis: One could argue the market rightly discounts Kaspi because marketplace growth may be slower than hoped, and regulatory/legal overhangs combined with geopolitical risk justify a lower multiple. If merchant economics fail to scale or if Kaspi’s take rates remain constrained by competition, the company’s fintech business may not offset softness, validating the current depressed multiple.
How I will monitor the trade
I will watch three things closely: (1) successive quarterly disclosures for the mix of GMV — specifically the percentage contribution from marketplace/merchant flows vs. P2P; (2) margin progression and ARPU trends for merchants; (3) headlines on the Rabobank Turkey acquisition and any legal updates. A positive read on any two of the three increases the likelihood of a re‑rating toward the target. Conversely, adverse legal rulings, missed GMV trends or acquisition setbacks would trigger discipline toward the stop.
Conclusion and what would change my mind
Kaspi presents a practical mid‑term trade: the company’s structural shift from P2P to m‑commerce and merchant services can lift earnings power without heroic revenue growth. The balance sheet and dividend yield provide income support while management pursues geographic expansion. The entry at $79.21, stop at $72.00 and target at $95.00 gives a reasonable risk/reward for a mid‑term swing trade anchored on marketplace monetization and deal execution.
I will change my view if any of the following occur: a material regulatory or sanctions penalty; clear evidence that marketplace take‑rates are compressing rather than expanding; or a failed acquisition that meaningfully increases leverage without visible benefit. Conversely, consecutive quarters of rising merchant GMV share, improved take‑rate disclosure and clean legal progress would make me more constructive and potentially add to the position on pullbacks.
Trade details recap: Entry $79.21; Stop $72.00; Target $95.00; Horizon: mid term (45 trading days); Risk profile: medium. Size the position to your risk tolerance, and update stops to lock in gains if the stock trades toward the target.