Guardant Health (GH) is back in that familiar “leadership stock” posture: making new highs, holding trend, and catching incremental fundamental wins that keep the buy-side narrative intact. The stock is at $117.03 this morning after tagging a new 52-week high of $120.74 on 01/22/2026. That’s not a sleepy grind. That’s price discovery.
The trade idea is straightforward: look for explosive revenue growth ahead as liquid biopsy adoption keeps expanding and Guardant stacks up regulatory validation. The market is already paying a premium for that outcome (GH trades at ~16.5x price-to-sales), but premium multiples can stay premium when the story keeps tightening and the chart keeps cooperating. I want to own the breakout, not chase it blindly.
My base case is a continuation move driven by a combination of (1) fresh FDA momentum, (2) a structurally growing genomics testing market, and (3) technical strength that invites trend-following flows. The pushback, of course, is that GH is still losing money (EPS is -$3.07), and when sentiment turns, expensive growth names can re-rate fast. That’s why this is a trade idea, not a marriage.
What Guardant does and why the market cares
Guardant Health is a precision oncology company built around blood-based tests and analytics. In plain English, they’re using liquid biopsy to help doctors make better cancer treatment decisions, monitor disease, and push earlier into detection over time. Their platform spans three buckets the market tends to pay up for:
- Treatment selection (actionable genomic insights without invasive tissue biopsies)
- Recurrence detection (monitoring after treatment, where time matters)
- Early detection (the biggest prize, and also the toughest regulatory and reimbursement grind)
The market cares because liquid biopsy keeps moving from “nice innovation” to “standard-of-care adjacent.” Every time you see another FDA-related headline, it’s not just a press release. It’s a credibility increment that can unlock clinical adoption and reimbursement confidence, especially in oncology where workflows are conservative and evidence-driven.
On 01/22/2026, the FDA approved Guardant’s Guardant360 CDx blood test as a companion diagnostic to identify patients with BRAF V600E-mutant metastatic colorectal cancer who may benefit from Pfizer’s Braftovi (with cetuximab and chemotherapy). The headline detail that matters: this marked the 25th companion diagnostic indication for Guardant360 CDx. That’s a lot of shots on goal turning into real labels.
When a diagnostics platform racks up multiple companion diagnostic indications, it becomes harder for skeptics to frame it as “early.” It starts to look entrenched.
Numbers that matter right now (and what they imply)
We don’t have a clean revenue line item in front of us here, so I’m not going to fake precision. But we do have enough market and financial signals to frame how investors are positioning around growth expectations.
| Metric | GH (latest) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $15.13B | Large enough for institutions, still growth-priced |
| Price | $117.03 | Near highs, momentum regime |
| 52-week range | $34.88 - $120.74 | Massive re-rating already happened; trend is real |
| Price-to-sales | 16.51x | Market is underwriting strong growth ahead |
| EV/Sales | 17.10x | Confirms premium valuation remains intact |
| EPS | -$3.07 | Still a loss-making growth story |
| Free cash flow | -$263.2M | Cash burn is the tax you pay for growth optionality |
| Current ratio / Quick ratio | 3.5 / 3.12 | Balance sheet liquidity helps reduce dilution panic |
Two things stand out. First, liquidity is solid: a 3.5 current ratio and 3.12 quick ratio is what you want to see in a company still investing heavily. It doesn’t make the business profitable, but it buys time, which matters when the thesis is “growth accelerates and operating leverage arrives later.”
Second, positioning is interesting. Short interest was 10,369,455 shares as of 12/31/2025, with ~6.07 days to cover. That’s not meme-stock territory, but it’s meaningful. Add in the fact that recent daily short volume has been running heavy (for example, 331,779 shares short on 01/23/2026 versus 645,712 total volume), and you have a setup where good news plus a breakout can force incremental buying.
Valuation framing: expensive, but not irrational
At ~16.5x sales and a negative P/E (because earnings are negative), GH is clearly not a “value” stock. You’re paying for a future state where adoption broadens and the company grows into its cost structure. The bull case is that Guardant isn’t just selling a single test. It’s building a platform with multiple clinical use cases, and every additional FDA companion diagnostic indication reinforces the platform’s relevance.
The bear case is equally simple: if revenue growth doesn’t live up to expectations or reimbursement/clinical adoption slows, this multiple can compress even if the company is executing “okay.” That’s the central tension. The reason I’m leaning bullish as a trade is that price action suggests the market is currently rewarding the story, not litigating it.
Technical setup: trend intact, breakout zone is nearby
GH is trading above key moving averages: 10-day SMA $112.69, 20-day SMA $108.94, and 50-day SMA $104.82. The RSI is 67.14, which is warm but not an automatic reversal signal. MACD is showing bullish momentum with a positive histogram (0.63).
Translation: buyers are in control, and dips have been getting absorbed. The risk is that we’re close enough to the 52-week high area that you can get a sharp shakeout if momentum funds decide to take profits. That’s why the trade plan focuses on owning GH with a defined stop under a level that would indicate the breakout attempt failed.
Catalysts (what can push this higher)
- More clinical/regulatory momentum following the 01/22/2026 FDA approval for Guardant360 CDx in advanced colorectal cancer treatment selection.
- Category growth tailwinds: multi-gene panel testing and molecular diagnostics markets are projected to grow at low-double-digit CAGRs over the coming years, which supports expanding budgets and adoption.
- Short interest as fuel: ~6.07 days to cover can amplify upside if the stock breaks and holds new highs.
- Technical confirmation: a clean reclaim and hold above the recent peak area can attract systematic and momentum buyers.
The trade plan
I’m treating this as a mid term (45 trading days) momentum-plus-catalyst trade. Why 45 trading days? Because liquid biopsy adoption and FDA companion diagnostic wins tend to influence sentiment over weeks, not hours, and GH is liquid enough for trends to develop without needing perfect timing. I want enough time for a breakout to either follow through or fail decisively.
- Trade direction: Long
- Entry: $117.10
- Target: $134.00
- Stop loss: $109.80
How I’m thinking about these levels
The stop at $109.80 sits below the 20-day trend area (20-day SMA is around $108.94) and gives the stock room to wiggle without letting a trend break turn into a slow bleed. If GH loses that zone with conviction, it’s telling you the market is no longer rewarding the story near highs.
The target at $134.00 assumes a continuation leg that’s meaningful but not fantastical. Given the stock has already traveled from a 52-week low of $34.88 to above $117, it’s proven it can trend. A move to $134 is essentially betting that the next wave of buyers shows up, not that fundamentals get “solved” overnight.
Risks and counterarguments (read these, seriously)
- Valuation risk: At ~16.5x sales, GH is priced for strong growth. If the market rotates away from high-multiple healthcare growth, the stock can drop even on neutral company news.
- Execution and adoption risk: FDA companion diagnostic wins are important, but commercial uptake still depends on oncologist behavior, payer dynamics, and hospital workflows. Label expansions don’t automatically translate into linear revenue.
- Cash burn risk: Free cash flow is -$263.2M. Even with strong liquidity ratios (current 3.5, quick 3.12), sustained burn can eventually raise dilution concerns if markets tighten.
- Technical failure at highs: With RSI near 67 and the stock near its 52-week high zone, a failed breakout can trigger fast profit-taking. Momentum names can fall quicker than they rise.
- Short interest isn’t always bullish: ~6 days to cover can add fuel on the way up, but it also signals a real population of investors betting that the story is over-earning its hype.
Counterargument to the thesis: the cleanest pushback is that the market already “knows” the liquid biopsy growth story, and GH’s move to new highs suggests a lot of optimism is already embedded. If revenue growth is merely good rather than explosive, the stock might chop sideways or compress, and this becomes dead money for months even if the company is executing.
Conclusion: bullish trade, but only while the chart stays healthy
GH is one of the cleaner ways to express bullishness on liquid biopsy adoption right now: a platform narrative, an FDA-driven credibility flywheel, and a chart that’s behaving like institutions still want exposure. I like it long above $117 with risk defined under $109.80, aiming for $134 over a mid term (45 trading days) window.
What would change my mind? A decisive break below the low-$110 area that doesn’t snap back quickly, or any price action that starts living below the 20-day trend line for more than a couple of weeks. In that scenario, the market is telling you the “explosive growth ahead” narrative is no longer the dominant driver, and there’s no reason to argue with tape.