Hook & thesis
Bridger Aerospace has the right product at the right time — aerial firefighting capacity — and the market is rewarding that with momentum. The shares have run from the $1.02 low in 2025 to about $2.99 today, and recent operational headlines (a $50 million Super Scooper purchase and improved flight revenue) plus technical strength set up a sensible swing trade.
That said, this is a momentum trade built on seasonal demand and capacity growth, not a story of a multi-year compounder. Bridger's economics and governance profile leave material long-term execution risk. For traders, that means a clearly defined entry, a tight stop and a mid-term horizon — capture the run into and through the 2026 wildfire season, then re-evaluate.
What the company does and why the market cares
Bridger Aerospace provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression and aerial firefighting services. Its fleet includes specialized aircraft such as De Havilland CL-415EAF Super Scoopers, Pilatus PC-12s and Twin Commanders. Governments and large utilities contract the company for time-sensitive firefighting services; demand spikes during the U.S. wildfire season and in unusually active fire years.
The market cares because contracts are near-term and revenue can ramp quickly with demand: flight revenue rose materially in the last reported beats and management highlighted the Super Scooper and Air Attack performance as primary drivers of a revenue beat. The company also expanded capacity by acquiring two CL-215T amphibious aircraft in a $50 million deal announced on 11/24/2025, increasing the Super Scooper fleet to eight. More scooper days = more billable hours in a high-rate seasonal window.
Key fundamental and valuation facts
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | $2.99 |
| Market cap | $166,073,869 |
| Enterprise value | $305,573,415 |
| Free cash flow (latest) | $25,395,000 |
| EV / EBITDA | ~7.0x |
| EPS (TTM) | -$0.36 |
| Price to sales | ~1.21 |
| Cash (reported) | $2.47 |
Put simply: the company is small-cap with a market cap around $166 million and an enterprise value of roughly $306 million. The EV/EBITDA of ~7x and positive free cash flow of $25.4 million suggest the business can generate cash in active seasons, but earnings are negative on an EPS basis (-$0.36). The valuation is therefore tied closely to near-term utilization, contract wins and fleet availability rather than long-term compounding unit economics.
Technical and market-structure context
Technicals support a momentum entry: the stock sits above its 10-day and 20-day SMAs ($2.945 and $2.7225), the 9-day EMA is $2.928 and the 21-day EMA $2.694. RSI at ~63 shows strength without being overbought. MACD is marginally negative but effectively flat, so momentum can still push the stock higher on positive headlines.
Trading is relatively thin by large-stock standards: float is ~35.6 million shares and average volume in the last 30 days is roughly 1.2 million shares. Short activity has been elevated on certain dates (large short volumes in late January), which can amplify moves in both directions.
Trade plan (actionable)
- Direction: Long
- Entry: $2.99 (use limit or staged entry up to $3.05)
- Stop loss: $2.60 (hard stop)
- Target: $3.80
- Horizon: mid term (45 trading days) — expect to hold through seasonal ramp and early operational updates tied to the 2026 wildfire season
Rationale: entry at $2.99 captures current momentum. Stop at $2.60 limits downside to roughly 13% if the momentum fades or if headline risk hits the tape. Target $3.80 sits above the 52-week high ($3.44) and provides a ~27% upside from entry, giving an attractive ~2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. The mid-term 45 trading days horizon allows the trade to capture pre-season utilization, any early-season contract activations and potential re-rating if revenue and utilization prints beat expectations.
Catalysts that could drive the trade
- Fleet expansion impact: the November 24, 2025 $50 million purchase of two CL-215T amphibious aircraft increases scooper days available for 2026 and can lift revenue if deployed early.
- Seasonal demand: the 2026 wildfire season ramp — higher-than-normal fire activity would materially increase flight hours and utilization.
- Operational wins / contract announcements: multi-year or large government contracts would de-seasonalize revenue expectations and re-rate the multiple.
- Positive cash flow or guidance updates in quarterly reports that demonstrate capacity monetization and margin improvement.
Risks and counterarguments
There are multiple reasons to treat this as a trade, not a long-term buy-and-hold:
- Seasonality and revenue volatility. The business is heavily seasonal. A mild wildfire season or slower-than-expected contract activations can cause sharp revenue and margin swings that hit the share price.
- Governance and accounting history. The company previously announced an EPS restatement that prompted a shareholder alert on 08/03/2024. That history raises the bar for management credibility and increases headline risk around reported results.
- Small-cap liquidity and short interest. With a float around ~35.6M and periods of concentrated shorting, the stock can gap wider on low volume, leading to slippage and volatile intraday moves.
- Capital intensity and leverage to fleet investments. Large aircraft purchases (e.g., the $50M scooper deal) increase capital commitments; if seasonality or contract rates disappoint, returns on those investments may take multiple seasons to realize.
- Execution risk on integration and acquisitions. The July 01, 2024 acquisition of FMS Aerospace aims to diversify services, but integration and the realization of synergies are not guaranteed.
Counterargument to the thesis: a longer-term investor could argue that Bridger's free cash flow generation ($25.4M reported) and improving fleet scale justify a multi-year hold. If the company secures multi-year contracts, reduces governance risk, and proves consistent off-season monetization through engineering and government services, it could become a genuine compounder. That outcome would change my view, but it requires repeated delivery across multiple seasons — not a single good year.
What would change my mind
I will upgrade this from a momentum/swing trade to a longer-term buy if the company does three things in sequence: (1) posts consecutive seasons with materially higher utilization and positive guidance that is conservative, (2) demonstrates clean and transparent financial reporting for at least two quarters after the restatement, and (3) converts FMS Aerospace and newly purchased scooper capacity into predictable, non-seasonal revenue via multi-year contracts. Anything short of that keeps this as a tactical play.
Position sizing and execution notes
Because of the stock's small-cap profile and event risk, limit individual position size to a modest percent of liquid capital (for most retail traders, single-digit percent risk per trade). Use limit orders to control entry slippage; consider scaling in if the price retraces toward the 21-day EMA near $2.69. Reassess if the stock gaps down below the stop or if headline risk (audit, restatement follow-up, contract loss) appears.
Bottom line: Bridger Aerospace offers a near-term momentum setup tied to fleet expansion and seasonal demand. Enter at $2.99, stop $2.60, target $3.80, and treat this as a mid-term trade (45 trading days) rather than a long-term compounder.