Stock Markets January 27, 2026

Yardeni: Data Shows No Broad 'Sell America' Exodus Despite Dollar Slide and Gold Rally

Despite a weaker dollar and record bullion prices, foreign private investment into U.S. capital markets remains strong, Yardeni Research says

By Leila Farooq
Yardeni: Data Shows No Broad 'Sell America' Exodus Despite Dollar Slide and Gold Rally

Recent market moves - a more than 9% fall in the U.S. dollar over the past year, a rally in precious metals to record highs, and the S&P 500 lagging the All Country World index excluding the U.S. - have prompted discussion of a so-called "Sell America" trade. Analysts at Yardeni Research reviewed a range of flows and reserve data and concluded there is "no sign" that foreign investors as a group are abandoning U.S. assets. Private foreign accounts were substantial net buyers of U.S. securities over the 12 months through November 2025, while foreign official accounts registered net sales. Yardeni also noted large foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and substantial foreign direct investment in the United States.

Key Points

  • Private foreign accounts bought about $1.5 trillion of U.S. capital market assets over the 12 months through November 2025, near a record high.
  • Foreign official accounts were net sellers of $51 billion over the same 12-month period, while foreigners collectively hold a record $9.4 trillion in U.S. Treasuries.
  • Foreign direct investment into the U.S. totaled $324 billion in the four quarters through the July-September period, with potential for further increases if recent commitments are realized. Sectors impacted include equities, fixed income (Treasuries and corporate bonds), and commodities linked to reserve composition such as precious metals.

Market observers have pointed to several concurrent trends as evidence that investors might be shifting away from American assets. Over the past one-year period the U.S. dollar has weakened by more than 9%, while prices for precious metals have climbed to fresh all-time highs in recent days. At the same time, last year the benchmark S&P 500 underperformed the All Country World index excluding the U.S., a gauge that tracks large- and mid-cap equity exposure across most developed markets.

Those moves have been cast by some as the emergence of a "Sell America" trade - a broader reallocation of capital away from the United States and toward foreign markets. The phrase returned to market conversations following the sharp sell-offs in U.S. stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar around the April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs.

However, in a client note Yardeni Research contends that the available data do not support a broad-based abandonment of U.S. assets. Yardeni’s analysts pointed to detailed cross-border flow statistics to make that case.

  • Over the 12 months through November 2025, foreign official accounts were net sellers of U.S. securities to the tune of $51 billion.
  • By contrast, private foreign accounts bought approximately $1.5 trillion of U.S. capital market assets during that same 12-month window, near record highs for such purchases.
  • Broken down further, private foreign investors purchased about $664 billion of U.S. equities and roughly $949 billion of U.S. bonds.
  • Foreign direct investment into the United States totaled $324 billion in the four quarters through the July-September period, with Yardeni noting the potential for material increases if recent commitments by overseas firms and countries are realized.

Yardeni’s review also covered reserve holdings and official sector behavior. The analysts observed that, despite a notable rise in the value of gold reserves driven by higher bullion prices, foreign official accounts still hold more U.S. Treasuries than gold. In aggregate, foreigners now own a record $9.4 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, the note said.

The research team did flag a limitation in their analysis: they did not examine whether U.S. investors are themselves reducing holdings of American securities to buy foreign assets. That specific cross-flow is outside the scope of the Yardeni note, which focused on foreign purchases and official reserve positions.

Taken together, Yardeni’s read of the evidence is that net private foreign demand for U.S. capital markets has remained robust even as the dollar weakened and gold rallied. The data cited show strong inflows from private foreign accounts alongside relatively modest official-sector selling, substantial foreign direct investment, and record foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries.


Context for market participants - For investors and market strategists assessing allocation shifts, the Yardeni findings highlight that headline moves in currencies, commodities, and relative index performance do not automatically translate into a wholesale exit of foreign investors from U.S. assets. The note emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between private and official sector flows when diagnosing broad market trends.

Risks

  • Yardeni’s analysis does not measure whether U.S. investors are selling American securities to buy foreign assets, leaving uncertainty about bilateral portfolio rebalancing between U.S. and non-U.S. investors - this affects understanding of net global allocation shifts and has implications for equity and bond markets.
  • Foreign official account behavior remains a source of risk: while private foreign purchases were large, official-sector sales of $51 billion occurred over the same 12-month period, and shifts in official reserve strategies could influence Treasury demand and yields - relevant to sovereign bond markets and funding costs.
  • The projection that foreign direct investment could rise depends on commitments by overseas firms and countries being realized; if those commitments do not materialize, expected increases in capital spending and ownership could fail to appear, impacting corporate investment and certain sectors tied to FDI.

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