Wolfe’s latest analysis of the business and information services sector positions a set of companies to benefit from market conditions expected in 2026. The firm emphasizes an environment marked by increased debt issuance and rising equity markets as key tailwinds that should favor firms with higher exposure to capital markets activity and data-driven services.
Highest-ranked pick: Moody’s Corporation (MCO)
Wolfe grants Moody’s Corporation the top slot among its outperform-rated names, assigning a price target of $630. The firm’s preference for Moody’s is driven by the company’s relatively greater revenue and earnings exposure to debt issuance compared with its peers. Wolfe expects that, with debt markets active in 2026, Moody’s stands to experience a larger magnitude of upside.
Recent broker activity has reflected improving sentiment toward Moody’s. Stifel upgraded the company’s rating to Buy, while Daiwa Securities moved its view to Outperform, both citing a favorable outlook for debt issuance. Separately, Moody’s announced the election of Lisa Sawicki to its board of directors.
S&P Global (SPGI) - close contender
S&P Global is a near-term peer to Moody’s in Wolfe’s ranking, carrying a price target of $635. Wolfe sees material potential for revenue and earnings upside at SPGI driven by the same market forces - a constructive environment for debt issuance alongside rising equities.
Wolfe also notes a structural difference between the two firms: even if debt issuance exceeds expectations, the firm does not expect the performance gap between S&P Global and Moody’s to meaningfully close in 2026. Recent corporate actions at SPGI include a 1% increase to its quarterly cash dividend, now $0.97 per share, and the launch of Mobility Pulse 360, a new data platform aimed at the automotive industry.
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) - high conviction long
Fair Isaac Corporation stands out in Wolfe’s view as one of the highest conviction longs, with a notably ambitious price target of $2,050. Wolfe characterizes FICO’s fiscal 2026 guidance as conservative and suggests that the market continues to underappreciate upside potential tied to recent pricing actions on mortgage royalties.
Wolfe also highlights the potential for expansion of FICO’s Direct License program, anticipating that additional resellers could join and contribute to growth. In its most recent reported quarter, FICO delivered first-quarter fiscal 2026 results above consensus: revenue of $512 million and non-GAAP earnings per share of $7.33.
TransUnion (TRU) - growth in Emerging Verticals
Rounding out Wolfe’s top picks, TransUnion carries a price target of $110. Wolfe’s upside case for the company rests on the prospect of multiple expansion should TransUnion sustain high-single-digit revenue growth within its Emerging Verticals segment. Analysts cite accelerating demand across non-financial verticals such as marketing and telecommunications as supporting this view.
Wolfe and the analysts it cites identify the company’s upcoming March investor day as a potential catalyst. Recent corporate developments include an agreement to acquire the mobile division of RealNetworks, a move intended to strengthen TransUnion’s fraud prevention capabilities. Broker activity has been constructive as well: Clear Street raised its price target on TransUnion to $103.
How Wolfe frames the sector opportunity
Across these names, Wolfe’s thesis is anchored to a few common themes. A more active debt issuance market should directly benefit firms with products and services tied to debt origination and surveillance. Rising equity markets are expected to provide parallel support for revenue that tracks capital markets activity. Within that context, companies with differentiated data platforms, pricing power, and expanding direct distribution models are identified as primary beneficiaries.
While the firms cited by Wolfe operate in adjacent spaces within business and information services, each offers a distinct pathway to capture upside under the scenarios Wolfe outlines: Moody’s through outsized exposure to debt issuance; S&P Global via broad market-linked revenue streams and new data products; FICO through pricing on mortgage royalties and direct licensing expansion; and TransUnion through growth in non-financial verticals and targeted M&A to bolster fraud prevention.
Investors and market participants will likely watch upcoming corporate events and market activity closely for confirmation of the themes Wolfe highlights, including debt issuance volumes, performance at the companies’ product initiatives, and updates delivered at scheduled investor events.