Stock Markets January 29, 2026

Valero Posts Q4 Beats as Refining Margins Recover and Throughput Rises

Stronger crack spreads and slightly higher runs lift adjusted earnings; company advances St. Charles FCC upgrade amid Venezuela crude developments

By Nina Shah VLO
Valero Posts Q4 Beats as Refining Margins Recover and Throughput Rises
VLO

Valero Energy reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings above Street estimates, driven by a recovery in U.S. refining margins and modest growth in throughput. The Houston-based refiner cited a material increase in per-barrel refining margin versus the prior year and noted progress on a refining optimization project at its St. Charles facility. Market commentary highlights potential benefits from renewed Venezuelan crude flows following recent U.S. policy signals.

Key Points

  • Valero exceeded fourth-quarter adjusted earnings expectations, reporting $3.82 per share versus the $3.27 consensus.
  • U.S. refining margins improved, with Valero's refining margin per barrel rising to $13.61 from $8.44 a year earlier; average throughput increased to 3.1 million bpd from 2.9 million bpd.
  • Valero is advancing a $230 million FCC Unit optimization at its St. Charles Refinery and stands to benefit from potential increases in Venezuelan crude availability, with BofA estimating an incremental 200,000 bpd of run capability.

Valero Energy reported adjusted earnings that surpassed analyst expectations for the fourth quarter, propelled by a rebound in refining margins and a small gain in throughput volumes. Shares of the company traded higher in pre-market action, rising 1.6% to $186.97.

The company said its refining margin per barrel of throughput came in at $13.61 for the quarter, up from $8.44 a year earlier. The reported improvement follows a recovery in U.S. refining margins measured by the 3-2-1 crack spread, which rebounded from the multi-year lows observed in 2024 when profits had been reduced after earlier post-pandemic peaks amid supply disruptions tied to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Valero's average throughput increased modestly to 3.1 million barrels per day in the quarter, compared with 2.9 million bpd in the same period a year earlier. The company reported adjusted earnings of $3.82 per share for the three months ended December 31, topping the $3.27 per-share expectation compiled by LSEG.

Market participants and analysts have noted that refiners such as Valero could gain from a recovery in Venezuelan crude imports to the U.S. The article cites commentary that the energy sector is preparing to increase output in Venezuela after the Trump administration laid out a long-term plan urging companies to invest $100 billion to revive the country's oil industry. According to BofA analysts referenced by the company, Valero could run an incremental 200,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan output in the near term.

On capital projects, Valero said it is advancing an FCC Unit optimization project at its St. Charles Refinery to boost production of higher-value products. The company expects the St. Charles project to cost $230 million and to be completed in the second half of the year.

The fourth-quarter results positioned Valero as among the early reporters in U.S. refining earnings this season. The company's stated performance reflects both margin expansion versus a year earlier and a slight increase in throughput, while management also flagged a specific refinery upgrade and potential feedstock upside tied to Venezuelan crude.

Investors will likely weigh the margin recovery reported this quarter alongside any follow-through in crude supply developments and project execution timelines. For now, Valero's reported metrics - higher per-barrel refining margins, increased runs, and adjusted EPS that exceeded expectations - underpin the near-term market reaction noted at the open.

Risks

  • Refining margins remain subject to volatility - margins earlier in 2024 hit multi-year lows, indicating ongoing market swings that could pressure profitability in the refining sector.
  • Outcomes tied to Venezuelan crude depend on policy-driven developments and investment plans; the scale and timing of any sustained uplift in feedstock availability remain uncertain.
  • Capital project timing and costs carry uncertainty - the St. Charles FCC upgrade is expected to cost $230 million and to be completed in the second half of the year, but completion timing and execution are projected rather than guaranteed.

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