The investment firm forecasts steady growth in Siemens Energy's gas turbine order book through fiscal year 2026 and anticipates the company's earnings will outpace current consensus estimates by roughly 9% by fiscal 2030. At the newly set target of €175, Siemens Energy's shares would represent a 31% premium on their closing price of €133 recorded the day before the update.
Despite the optimism, Siemens Energy currently trades at a 10% discount relative to the European capital goods sector based on the fiscal 2028 enterprise value to EBIT ratio. This valuation gap persists even though Siemens Energy is projected to achieve the highest EBITA growth rate of 55% during the 2025 to 2028 period, according to UBS analysts.
The firm’s analysis of the gas turbine market suggests sustained demand averaging 88 gigawatts annually from 2026 through 2035, while industry production capacity is expected to reach only 90 gigawatts by 2030. This imbalance substantiates the outlook for a continuing undersupplied market environment. UBS's gas services order forecasts for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 are approximately 14% above consensus.
Specifically, UBS anticipates robust gas services order growth in the first half of fiscal 2026, citing parallels with GE Vernova’s guidance of approximately 20 gigawatts of orders projected for the fourth quarter of 2025. Siemens Energy secured 26 gigawatts in orders during fiscal 2025 and held reservations amounting to 36 gigawatts as of October 2025.
Profitability is also expected to improve, with gas services EBITA margins projected to reach 24% by fiscal 2030. This forecast surpasses the company’s own fiscal 2028 guidance, which targets a margin range of 18% to 20%. Backlog project margins in gas services new units showed a year-over-year increase of 5 percentage points in fiscal 2025, offering visibility into continued margin expansion.
Driving demand beyond data centers, which accounted for roughly 25% of orders in 2025, are factors such as growing U.S. baseload power needs, expansion in the Middle East, transitions from coal to gas in Asia, and Europe's energy security initiatives.
Within Siemens Energy’s Grid Technologies segment, the backlog has reached an all-time high of €42 billion, equivalent to roughly three years of revenue coverage. Margins in this division expanded by 3 percentage points in fiscal 2025. UBS projects EBITA margins in Grid Technologies will attain 21.5% by fiscal 2030, exceeding the 18% to 20% guidance for fiscal 2028, supported by €2 billion in capacity expansion investments planned through fiscal 2028.
On a group level, UBS forecasts Siemens Energy's fiscal 2028 EBITA to be €8,780 million, 6.2% above consensus expectations, with margins improving to 15.8%, up from 11.1% in fiscal 2026. Free cash flow is forecasted to reach €7,225 million in fiscal 2028, which translates to a 6.3% yield.
The broker also highlighted the potential for Siemens-Gamesa wind business to reach EBITA breakeven in fiscal 2026, following a €1.3 billion loss recorded in 2025, as a possible positive catalyst. UBS estimates the broader market assigns a negative enterprise value of €15.5 billion to this wind division, amounting to about €17 per share.
UBS arrived at the €175 price target using an equally weighted average of sum-of-the-parts and discounted cash flow valuation methods. The valuations conclude the company is trading at 20 times fiscal 2027 EBITA, which represents a 22% discount relative to GE Vernova, narrowing from a current 40% disparity.
Looking ahead beyond 2030, UBS expects more than 70% of group EBITA to derive from structurally growing segments in Grid Technologies and Gas Services aftermarket, supporting a 5% EBITA growth rate in the 2030 to 2034 timeframe.