UBS has moved Swiss composite materials supplier Gurit Holding AG to a "buy" rating from "neutral," simultaneously lifting its 12-month price target to CHF43 from CHF25. The brokerage's reassessment rests on a mixture of company-specific operational improvements and what it characterises as a healthier demand environment in the wind-energy sector.
Analysts Marti Queral Ferre and Joern Iffert derived the new target using a discounted cash flow framework. Their model assumes a weighted average cost of capital of 8.5%, a terminal sales growth rate of 1.5% and a terminal EBITDA margin of 9%.
On valuation, UBS notes that Gurit is trading at about seven times its estimated 2026 EV/EBIT, which the bank describes as approximately a 50% discount to the median multiple of Swiss small and midcap industrials. UBS characterised that valuation gap as offering an "attractive risk reward."
Following the update, UBS increased its earnings-per-share projections by between 3% and 8% for the 2026-2028 period. The analysts now expect Gurit to reach a 10% EBIT margin by 2028, above the Refinitiv-based consensus figure of 9.4%. UBS also said its projected EBIT sits roughly 5% and 8% ahead of consensus for 2027 and 2028, respectively.
UBS cited three principal factors supporting the upgrade:
- Operational simplification: Gurit has streamlined its stock-keeping units, including the Fiberline product line, and rationalised its contract portfolio. UBS said these moves improve scalability and support higher margins.
- Sales inflection: After the rationalisation, UBS expects Gurit to hit an organic sales inflection point, moving to positive growth in 2026.
- Market balance: Following prolonged overcapacity in the wind market, UBS assesses that supply and demand are now more balanced, which it says has produced more stable pricing across the industry.
UBS pointed to wind-market data indicating that new global wind installations rose by around 40% year-on-year in 2025. The broker highlighted industry projections of roughly 8% global growth in 2026 and a stronger expansion of 20% to 25% excluding China.
On a related note, UBS estimated wind-generated electricity used to power artificial intelligence infrastructure could grow at about a 20% compound annual growth rate over 2025-2030, citing International Energy Agency forecasts as the underlying basis for that projection.
The bank also outlined two principal downside risks. First, UBS flagged the potential for Chinese original equipment manufacturers to penetrate Western markets, particularly Europe. However, UBS said it does not expect an immediate effect and referenced the European Commission's antidumping investigation into Goldwind and the United Kingdom's blocking of a wind turbine factory from Ming Yang in Scotland in March 2026.
Second, UBS identified pricing pressure within the wind supply chain as a risk. The broker noted, though, that such pressure appears to be easing, referencing stable average selling prices and rising margins at original equipment manufacturers.
Looking toward near-term results, UBS forecast an approximately 10% EBIT margin for the first half of 2026, compared with 5.7% in the first half of 2025. The bank said it expects Gurit to reiterate full-year guidance for mid-single-digit organic growth and an EBIT margin above the 2025 level of 8.1% when the company releases first-half 2026 results on August 26.