TSX futures hold steady near peak as gold prices surge amid geopolitical tensions

At the start of Friday’s session, futures tied to Canada’s principal stock benchmark showed little movement, maintaining a position near recent record levels. By 07:29 ET (12:29 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 futures were marginally higher by one point, representing a 0.1% increment. The broader S&P/TSX composite index had closed the previous day up 0.5%, reaching 33,002.70 points, which is within a small margin of the all-time peak recorded earlier in the month.

Investor sentiment was supported by robust economic indicators from the United States coupled with diminishing threats of tariffs from the U.S. against European nations. These easing trade tensions helped underpin positive momentum in North American equities.

Gold prices played a crucial role in supporting the TSX’s commodity-laden components. The precious metal surged beyond the $4,900 per ounce threshold for the first time in history, propelled by a combination of geopolitical conflict and forecasted interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the week ahead. This spike invigorated the materials sector of the Canadian market, which climbed sharply by 2.2%, led by metal mining stocks and other commodity-related equities.

Conversely, futures on major U.S. stock indices trended downward during early trading hours Friday, concluding a volatile week with losses spurred by underwhelming earnings from semiconductor leader Intel. At 07:41 ET, Dow Jones futures declined by 117 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures dropped 10 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 59 points (0.2%).

Earlier in the week, gains were recorded on Wall Street as concerns over additional tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump against European countries eased. This development restored some previously lost ground, especially for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices still faced the prospect of their second consecutive week of declines.

The market’s respite followed President Trump’s announcement that a trade agreement framework had been established with European powers concerning Greenland, a Danish autonomous region. Trump reversed earlier aggressive rhetoric by retracting his threat to impose tariffs or use military force to assert U.S. control over the island. This reversal helped to alleviate heightened geopolitical anxieties that had dampened investor confidence.

Nevertheless, the broader relationship between the U.S. administration and European nations continues to face challenges. Further geopolitical strain arose as President Trump deployed a naval fleet towards Iran, citing concerns about Iran’s internal protest crackdown and potential nuclear program resurgence. While Trump expressed a preference for peaceful outcomes, he emphasized vigilance regarding Iran’s actions.

In corporate news, Intel shares dropped in premarket trading following the company’s report of a net loss of $333 million in the fourth fiscal quarter, a result worse than analyst estimates. The chipmaker also issued a cautious outlook, highlighting that persistent supply shortages driven by surging demand in data centers—which support advanced AI technologies—could extend into 2026. Despite previous backing from influential investors, including Nvidia and government entities, the company’s current challenges weigh on its stock performance.

As the technology sector braces for upcoming earnings releases from major players such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla next week, market participants remain attentive to corporate data that may influence overall market direction.

On the economic front, Friday’s agenda included January S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index readings and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. These data points, however, are expected to have limited impact ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, where interest rates are widely anticipated to remain steady amidst economic uncertainties.

President Trump also announced the conclusion of his search for a new Federal Reserve chair, having interviewed a shortlist including candidates from both institutional and private sectors. The finalists feature officials such as National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, and current and former Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh.

Gold prices reached record highs earlier in the day, approaching the psychologically significant $5,000 per ounce mark. The precious metal’s escalation reflects its status as a safe haven amid the deployment of U.S. naval assets to the Middle East and amplified geopolitical concerns. Spot gold increased by up to 0.7%, peaking at $4,967.48 per ounce, while futures contracts for February delivery rose over 1% to $4,969.69.

Energy markets also responded to escalating tensions, with Brent crude futures climbing 1.3% to $64.86 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rising 1.4% to $60.17. Both benchmarks are positioned to close the week with gains just shy of 1%. Analysts noted reports of a U.S. aircraft carrier group en route to the Middle East, heightening concerns about potential military conflict. Considering Iran’s significant role within OPEC and its status as a major supplier to China, developments in the region are particularly influential for global energy prices.

Investors are closely monitoring these evolving geopolitical, economic, and corporate developments as markets navigate a complex landscape marked by persistent uncertainties and sector-specific challenges.