Futures linked to Canada’s commodity-focused primary stock index ticked upward on Friday as strength in metals markets outweighed renewed tariff threats from the United States.
By 07:09 ET (12:09 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had added 11 points, or 0.6%. The broader S&P/TSX composite index rose 0.4% to 33,144.98 on Friday, closing the trading week at a record high. For the week, which featured bouts of volatility tied to geopolitical uncertainty, the index averaged a gain of 0.3%.
The advance was led by the materials sector, which includes companies exposed to metals mining. Gold moved to fresh all-time highs amid a wave of buying tied to perceived safety in bullion, and silver also climbed as demand for the industrial metal increased. Silver was noted for its practical applications that range from solar panels to medical coatings, underlining the combination of safe-haven and industrial drivers behind the rally.
U.S. equity futures were relatively muted as market participants prepared for a pivotal week that includes a two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting and a heavy slate of corporate earnings against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions. At 07:27 ET, Dow Jones futures were mostly unchanged, S&P 500 futures had slipped 6 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen 51 points, or 0.2%.
Wall Street entered the week coming off a losing stretch, with the benchmark S&P 500 down roughly 0.4% for its second consecutive weekly decline. A focal point for markets this week will be the Fed’s meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. Market participants generally expect the central bank to keep interest rates steady after three consecutive cuts in previous meetings.
Trade tensions reappeared over the weekend when President Donald Trump warned he would impose a 100% duty on Canada if Canada struck a trade deal with China. In social media posts, he named Prime Minister Mark Carney and wrote that "China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life," adding that "all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A." would face the 100% import tax if an accord is made. The White House tariff threat elevated policy risk between the two neighbors even as markets continued to price in other influences.
Mark Carney, who had recently visited China to discuss trade and delivered remarks in Davos calling for smaller countries to address economic coercion by global powers, said Canada has "no intention" of going after a free trade deal with China. He added that Ottawa respects its commitments made under a separate pact with the U.S. and Mexico, and that Canada would inform both partners before pursuing any such agreement.
Precious metals set fresh milestones during the week. Gold pushed past the $5,100 an ounce level on Monday, while silver also climbed to new record highs. Gold rose more than 8% over the prior week and has gained nearly 17% year to date, driven by a mix of geopolitical risk, expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy later in 2026, and continued central bank purchases. Analysts at ING wrote in a client note that "While market conditions remain volatile, the broader backdrop remains supportive. Geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and structural supply deficits leave both metals well positioned." They added that "Silver’s tight physical market and strong industrial demand should continue to provide a solid floor, though its elevated volatility means sharp swings remain likely."
Energy markets were more unsettled as traders weighed renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and the impact of a heavy winter storm across broad swaths of the United States. Brent futures were last down 0.1% at $65.04 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 0.2% to $60.98 a barrel. Both benchmarks recorded weekly gains of 2.7% the prior week, finishing Friday at their highest levels since January 14.
On Thursday, President Trump said the U.S. had an "armada" en route to Iran, and that a U.S. military aircraft carrier strike group and other assets were expected to arrive in the region in the coming days. The comments added to supply-risk sentiment in oil markets.
At the same time, the severe winter storm in the U.S. reduced crude and natural gas production and drove spot power prices higher in affected regions as operations were disrupted by weather-related outages and demand spikes. Those market effects contributed to the bout of oil volatility over the period.
Overall, Canadian markets were able to advance alongside the metals rally despite elevated geopolitical and trade-related headlines. The composition of the S&P/TSX, with a sizable weighting toward natural resources and materials names, left the index particularly sensitive to moves in gold, silver, and related commodities as traders weighed safety flows and industrial demand signals.
Key points
- The S&P/TSX composite closed at a record 33,144.98, with futures for the S&P/TSX 60 rising 11 points or 0.6% as metals led the advance.
- Gold and silver reached new all-time highs, supporting the materials sector and reflecting both safe-haven buying and industrial demand for silver.
- U.S. futures were subdued ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting and a busy corporate earnings week; oil traded choppily due to Middle East tensions and a major U.S. winter storm.
Risks and uncertainties
- Escalating trade rhetoric between the U.S. and Canada - including a U.S. threat of a 100% duty if Canada signs a deal with China - may increase policy risk for Canadian exporters and resource companies.
- Heightened geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Iran interactions and military movements, pose upside risk to oil prices and volatility in energy markets.
- Severe weather in the U.S. that curtails energy production and pushes spot power prices higher can create short-term disruptions for oil and gas markets.
Note: This report reflects market moves, policy statements, and analyst commentary as presented during the referenced trading period.