Stock Markets January 26, 2026

Tariffs Keep Pressuring Margins as Companies Prepare for Earnings Season

Corporate comments signal costs being passed to consumers unevenly, raising margin concerns ahead of major quarterly reports

By Nina Shah
Tariffs Keep Pressuring Margins as Companies Prepare for Earnings Season

U.S. companies continue to describe tariffs as manageable, but comments during early earnings season suggest profit margins remain under pressure as some costs are passed to consumers. Retailers and manufacturers, from Amazon and Procter & Gamble to Fastenal and Tractor Supply, have reported rising prices in certain categories and cautious consumer behavior, while economists and academics quantify notable price effects on domestic and imported goods.

Key Points

  • Companies including Procter & Gamble, Fastenal, 3M and Amazon report tariff-related cost pressures that may erode profit margins.
  • Academic and policy research shows notable price impacts - Harvard researchers estimate domestic goods roughly 4.3 percentage points more expensive and imports 5.8 points more expensive as of year-end; Yale Budget Lab puts the effective tariff rate at 14.4% as of mid-November.
  • Major U.S. firms with global footprints will report results next week - more than 100 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report, affecting sectors such as consumer goods, retail, industrials and autos.

Many U.S. firms are trying to calm investors by saying tariffs are controllable, yet recent comments as earnings season begins indicate profits could be squeezed as consumers push back on higher prices.

Executives at several large companies have highlighted the difficulties. Procter & Gamble, Fastenal and 3M have flagged complications tied to tariffs. Retail giant Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that the company was observing price increases on its e-commerce marketplace as sellers reduced inventories they had imported to front-run tariffs.

Several companies with global operations will report results in the coming week, including General Motors, Caterpillar, Colgate-Palmolive and Kimberly-Clark. According to LSEG data, more than 100 S&P 500 companies are slated to report next week.

While overall consumer spending has held up, households have been selective, often favoring lower-priced options. That pattern is especially evident among lower- and middle-income buyers. Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, summarized consumer sentiment by saying, "While some are less price-sensitive than others, most consumers are still mad about the level of current prices and won’t take kindly to further hikes."


How companies are responding

Some firms are attempting targeted price increases rather than broad hikes. Tractor Supply, the gardening and farm equipment seller, is expected to introduce tariff-related price increases this year, according to a note from brokerage Telsey Advisory Group. Tractor Supply reports results on Thursday. Executives at the company said shoppers have been buying with value in mind over the past year and that any price rises would be "surgical."

Levi Strauss, which reports holiday-quarter results on Wednesday, said in October that tariffs would reduce margins by 0.7%, an increase from an earlier estimate of 0.5%. The company has raised some prices while working to diversify its supply chain, but it also cautioned about a softer consumer backdrop.

Spice maker McCormick & Co said it is raising prices after tariff costs came in higher than expected during the fourth quarter. CEO Brendan Foley said, "Approximately 50% of the incremental tariffs on McCormick items remain in place, and we continue to face related inflationary pressures." McCormick reported gross profit margins down approximately 130 basis points from the year-earlier period.

Procter & Gamble has implemented some price increases in the U.S., its largest market, raising prices by roughly 2% to 2.5% to offset tariffs and soft sales. The company reported its fifth straight quarterly decline in margins last week.

Industrial distributor Fastenal also attributed higher prices to tariffs and said that demand has been affected. Fastenal’s CFO Max Tunnicliff noted the company would "go for more pricing" in 2026, conditional on input costs and customer behavior.


Measured price effects

Academic tracking has quantified the impact on prices. Harvard professors Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez have been monitoring the prices of roughly 360,000 goods - from carpets to coffee - sold at major online and brick-and-mortar retailers in the United States. They estimate that, as of year-end, domestic goods cost about 4.3 percentage points more than would have been expected under the pre-tariff regime, while imported goods are about 5.8 percentage points more expensive.

Separately, the Yale Budget Lab estimated that, as of mid-November, the effective tariff rate on U.S. consumers - accounting for product substitution - stood at 14.4%, the highest level in 85 years.


Policy uncertainty and corporate planning

Trade policy remains a potential source of change. The current tariff regime could be disrupted if the U.S. Supreme Court in February rules against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement existing tariffs - a decision that could open the possibility of substantial refunds for companies that paid duties under the emergency-powers framework. That legal process could take years to resolve. In the interim, the White House intends to use other tariff authorities to keep import duties in place.

Executives acknowledge they have been adapting. "Everyone has been working through the last eight months on how to navigate the new trade environment," said Larry Culp, CEO of General Electric.

As the earnings calendar unfolds, investors will be watching closely to see whether companies can protect margins without losing customers, and how management teams balance price moves, supply-chain adjustments and the risk of softer demand.

Risks

  • Potential Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA could disrupt the current tariff regime and create legal and financial uncertainty for companies that paid duties - this could affect corporate cash flows and financial reporting timelines.
  • Consumers are showing price sensitivity, especially lower- and middle-income buyers, which raises the risk that companies passing through tariff costs could see reduced demand and margin pressure in consumer-facing sectors.
  • Ongoing tariff-related input-cost inflation could further compress gross margins for manufacturers and branded consumer goods companies if companies are unable to fully offset costs with price increases.

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