Stifel acknowledged that Macau's March gross gaming revenue results exceeded consensus expectations, but cautioned that investors may not be swayed by the topline beat alone. The firm highlighted that market attention has shifted toward profitability indicators as a means to determine whether recent revenue gains are sustainable.
Central to Stifel's concern is uncertainty about the source of the revenue uptick. If the improvement was achieved through heavier promotional activity and marketing spend, investors will find it difficult to judge the persistence of the recovery. For that reason, the brokerage said scrutiny will intensify around operator-specific margin performance when first-quarter 2026 earnings are released, as margins will provide a clearer signal of promotional intensity across the industry.
On visitation metrics, Stifel reported that visitor arrivals to Macau remain healthy and have surpassed 2019 levels. Despite stronger footfall, spending per visitor has yet to return to historical norms. The firm linked this weaker spend to ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that are shaping consumer behavior.
Stifel noted that VIP and premium mass segments have made a comeback in Macau, but that the base mass customer segment has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. That shift in customer mix is exerting margin pressure on certain operators, prompting them to step up marketing and promotional efforts aimed at attracting higher-value patrons.
Maintaining its earlier outlook, Stifel kept its 2026 gross gaming revenue forecast unchanged at 4% to 8% growth. The midpoint of that range now aligns with consensus estimates. The firm added that there is upside risk to the forecast if VIP and premium mass play continue to strengthen.
Looking ahead, Stifel projected April 2026 GGR growth of 7% to 11% year-over-year, a pace that would still leave April approximately 13% below 2019 levels. For the second quarter of 2026, the firm expects GGR to increase 5% to 9% versus the prior year.
Stifel observed that current consensus estimates call for 6.6% growth for full-year 2026, a level the firm regards as more realistic than estimates from 60 days earlier.