Stock Markets April 15, 2026 08:59 AM

Stifel: EU Industrial Output Edges Higher in February; 2026 Seen as Positive but Uneven

Eurostat data shows 0.4% month-on-month gain across EU21 and EU27; Stifel flags U.S. policy uncertainty and anticipates a choppy recovery with policy-driven capacity expansion

By Avery Klein
Stifel: EU Industrial Output Edges Higher in February; 2026 Seen as Positive but Uneven

Eurostat figures analyzed by Stifel show European industrial production rose 0.4% month-on-month in February for both the EU21 and EU27, topping the 0.3% consensus. Sector-level gains in capital, intermediate and non-durable consumer goods contrasted with declines in energy and durable consumer goods. Stifel projects a generally positive yet volatile trajectory for industrial output through 2026, citing uncertainty from U.S. policy and renewed policy-driven investment in European industrial and defense capacity.

Key Points

  • February industrial production rose 0.4% month-on-month in both the EU21 and EU27, beating the 0.3% consensus.
  • Within the EU21, capital goods, intermediate goods, and non-durable consumer goods recorded gains while energy and durable consumer goods declined.
  • Stifel expects a positive but choppy trend for industrial production through 2026, noting that U.S. policy uncertainty could affect global industrial economies and capital investment plans; policy-driven expansion may bolster European industrial and defense capacity.

European industrial production increased by 0.4% month-on-month in February for both the EU21 and EU27, according to Eurostat data examined by Stifel. The result exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.3% growth.

A sectoral breakdown within the EU21 shows a mixed picture:

  • Intermediate goods rose 0.5%.
  • Capital goods increased by 1.0%.
  • Non-durable consumer goods climbed 2.6%.
  • Energy production fell 2.1%.
  • Durable consumer goods declined 1.3%.

Among major European economies, sequential figures were uneven. Germany recorded a 0.1% decline in industrial production, France fell 0.8%, and Spain was unchanged from the prior month. Of the 30 countries reporting data, 12 posted month-on-month increases, 17 showed decreases, and one reported no change.

On an annual basis, industrial production was lower across the broader region. The EU21 saw a 0.7% year-over-year decrease, while the EU27 recorded a 0.1% decline. Looking at country-level annual performance, 16 nations reported increases, 13 reported decreases, and one was unchanged.

Leading indicators showed some improvement in underlying activity. The Eurozone purchasing managers index expanded in March, rising 0.8 points from February to 51.6, a level described as a 45-month high.

Stifel framed the near-term outlook for industrial production as positive but choppy through 2026. The firm highlighted uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy as a factor that could influence global industrial economies and companies' capital investment plans. At the same time, Stifel said the European industrial economy has likely reached a bottom and that policy pressure is expected to support growth in European industrial and defense capacity.

In sum, the latest Eurostat readings point to modest sequential gains in February, uneven country and sector performance, and a forward view from Stifel that balances a likely recovery with potential volatility tied to external policy developments and investment decisions.


Impacted sectors: Manufacturing, capital goods, consumer goods, energy, and defense-related industrial capacity.

Risks

  • Uncertainty from U.S. policy that could influence global industrial demand and corporate capital expenditure decisions - affecting manufacturing and capital goods sectors.
  • Mixed country-level performance and sectoral declines, such as in energy and durable consumer goods, which could weigh on specific domestic industrial outputs.
  • Potential volatility in the recovery trajectory despite an overall positive outlook, creating uneven impacts across countries and sub-industries including defense-related capacity.

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