Stock Markets June 15, 2026 03:38 PM

S&P Upgrades Victoria's Secret Outlook After Strong Q1 Sales and Margin Improvement

Ratings agency raises outlook to positive and affirms 'BB-' as company posts robust revenue gains and stronger customer acquisition

By Marcus Reed
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S&P Global Ratings upgraded its outlook on Victoria's Secret & Co. to positive from stable while keeping the issuer credit rating at 'BB-'. The move follows stronger-than-expected operating results in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, including a 15% rise in consolidated revenue and notable gains in digital engagement and new-customer growth. S&P projects higher margins, improved leverage and increased free operating cash flow for fiscal 2026, while noting governance risks tied to an activist shareholder.

S&P Upgrades Victoria's Secret Outlook After Strong Q1 Sales and Margin Improvement
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Key Points

  • S&P Global Ratings raised Victoria's Secret outlook to positive from stable and affirmed the 'BB-' issuer credit rating.
  • Victoria's Secret reported 15% consolidated revenue growth in Q1 (ended May 2, 2026) with 13% comparable sales growth and a 50% jump in app downloads.
  • S&P projects mid- to high-17% adjusted operating margins for fiscal 2026, roughly 8% revenue growth, improved leverage to about 2.4x, and higher free operating cash flow (~$356 million).

S&P Global Ratings on Monday moved Victoria's Secret & Co.'s outlook to positive from stable and affirmed the company's 'BB-' issuer credit rating. The ratings action reflects what S&P described as better-than-expected operating results and double-digit growth in market share during the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

Victoria's Secret reported a 15% increase in consolidated revenue for the quarter ended May 2, 2026, driven by 13% comparable sales growth. Digital engagement was pronounced, with app downloads climbing 50%. Stores also saw traffic improvements, registering mid-single-digit gains. The company recorded double-digit increases in new customers, concentrated among shoppers aged 18 to 24, and noted stronger customer acquisition among households earning under $50,000 and over $200,000 annually, even as promotional activity declined.

S&P's analysis incorporated expectations that the company's adjusted operating margin will expand to the mid- to high-17% range in fiscal 2026, compared with 16.6% in fiscal 2025. The ratings agency forecasts roughly 8% total consolidated revenue growth for fiscal 2026, citing support from a mix of new store openings, brand campaigns across Victoria's Secret, PINK and Beauty, and influencer partnerships. S&P highlighted the company's "promo detox" initiative and disciplined inventory management as contributors to margin stability.

On balance-sheet and cash-flow metrics, S&P expects adjusted leverage to improve to roughly 2.4x in 2026 from about 2.6x in 2025. Reported free operating cash flow is projected to rise to roughly $356 million in fiscal 2026 from approximately $312 million in fiscal 2025. At the end of the first quarter of 2026 the company held roughly $207 million in cash and had about $685 million available under a $750 million asset-based lending facility.

S&P framed the positive outlook around sustained improvements in operating performance and profitability if management continues to execute the company's strategy under CEO Hillary Super. The ratings agency did, however, call out governance-related uncertainty stemming from activist investor BBRC International. That investor holds an 11.6% stake and has advocated for board changes. Shareholders subsequently voted to re-elect the incumbent board at the annual meeting held in June 2026.

The ratings action indicates S&P's view that the company is on a path to stronger margins, modest leverage reduction and higher free cash generation, supported by digital traction, customer acquisition among younger cohorts and continued brand investments. S&P's projections rely on the company's plans for controlled promotions and inventory management to preserve profitability while pursuing top-line growth through store openings and marketing initiatives.


Contextual notes

  • All financial and operational figures are taken from S&P Global Ratings' assessment and the company's reported first-quarter results for the period ended May 2, 2026.
  • S&P's projections for margins, leverage and free operating cash flow reflect its adjusted measures and forward-looking estimates for fiscal 2026.

Risks

  • Governance uncertainty tied to activist investor BBRC International, which holds an 11.6% stake and has pushed for board changes - this could affect strategic direction and investor relations.
  • Projections for improved margins and cash flow depend on execution of the company's 'promo detox' strategy and disciplined inventory management - failure to maintain that discipline could pressure profitability.
  • Revenue and margin forecasts assume continued benefits from new store openings, brand campaigns and influencer collaborations - underperformance in these channels could limit the expected gains.

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