Stock Markets February 3, 2026

Severstal Sees Steel Demand Easing Further in 2026 Despite Planned Output Rise

Company posts steep earnings drop in 2025 and warns of continued domestic weakness even as production is set to increase

By Leila Farooq
Severstal Sees Steel Demand Easing Further in 2026 Despite Planned Output Rise

Russian steelmaker Severstal reported a sharp fall in 2025 profitability and revenue and warned that steel demand is likely to decline again in 2026 even as it plans to lift production. The company cited lingering economic cooling and reduced construction activity as drivers of lower domestic consumption.

Key Points

  • Severstal's 2025 net profit plunged 79% to 31.99 billion roubles and revenue fell 14% to 712.9 billion roubles due to lower steel prices.
  • Company expects domestic steel demand to decline further in 2026 despite plans to raise production to 11.3 million metric tons from 10.8 million tons.
  • Severstal reported negative free cash flow for 2025 and will not pay a dividend for the fourth quarter; last dividend was for Q3 2024.

Overview

Severstal, one of Russia's largest steel producers, reported a marked deterioration in financial results for 2025 and signalled that demand for steel is likely to weaken further in 2026 even as it intends to raise output. The company posted a large drop in net profit and lower revenue as prices for steel fell, and it described an operating environment constrained by subdued domestic consumption.


Financial results

For 2025, Severstal's net profit fell 79% to 31.99 billion roubles ($416 million). Revenue declined 14% year-on-year to 712.9 billion roubles, a decrease the company attributed to weaker steel prices. Severstal also recorded negative free cash flow for the year.


Demand outlook

While the company expects monetary policy to ease gradually, it said the economy's cooling has momentum, and that will weigh on steel consumption next year. "Despite the gradual easing of monetary policy, the cooling of the economy will have inertia, and therefore we expect a further decline in steel demand in 2026," Severstal CEO Alexander Shevelev said in a statement.

Severstal noted that Russia's steel demand has been contracting since 2024, hit by elevated interest rates and lower activity from major buyers, especially within the construction sector. The company estimated that domestic steel consumption fell by roughly 14% in 2025.


Production and volumes

Despite the weak demand outlook, Severstal plans to increase steel production to 11.3 million metric tons in 2026, up from 10.8 million tons in 2025. In 2025 the company's sales volume of metal products rose 4% to 11.24 million tons.


Capital returns and liquidity

Against the backdrop of negative free cash flow for 2025, Severstal said it will not pay a dividend for the fourth quarter. The company's last dividend payment was for the third quarter of 2024.


Macro context cited by the company

Severstal highlighted the impact of Russia's interest-rate path on demand. The central bank has been cutting its key rate since June last year, bringing it down from a peak of 21% - the highest level since the early 2000s - to the current 16%.


Implication

The combination of falling prices, sharply lower profitability, negative free cash flow and a pause in dividend payments underscores the strain on Severstal's operations amid softer domestic demand. The company is positioning for higher output next year even as it warns of continued weakness in demand.

Risks

  • Continued domestic demand deterioration - impacts construction and domestic metals markets, with lowered consumption likely to pressure prices and margins.
  • Negative cash flow and suspended dividend - raises questions on near-term shareholder returns and liquidity management for the company and could affect investor sentiment in the Russian metals sector.
  • High interest-rate legacy and economic inertia - despite recent rate cuts, the lingering effects of previously elevated rates may suppress investment and construction activity, prolonging weakness in steel consumption.

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