Stock Markets January 30, 2026

Scatec Reports Q4 Shortfall on Consolidated Metrics, Backlog Expands Sharply

Consolidated revenues and EBITDA missed analyst forecasts while proportionate performance and a sizeable Egypt deal underpin backlog growth

By Jordan Park
Scatec Reports Q4 Shortfall on Consolidated Metrics, Backlog Expands Sharply

Scatec posted fourth-quarter consolidated results that fell short of analyst expectations, with revenue and EBITDA declining year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. On a proportionate basis, power production and Power Production EBITDA were roughly in line with forecasts, and Development & Construction delivered materially stronger EBITDA than anticipated. The company also disclosed a substantial increase in project backlog driven by the Energy Valley solar-plus-storage agreement in Egypt and maintained a robust liquidity position heading into 2026 guidance.

Key Points

  • Consolidated revenues of NOK1,028 million were down 11% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, missing Kepler Cheuvreux and consensus estimates.
  • Consolidated EBITDA fell to NOK697 million with a margin contraction to 68%, while proportionate Power Production EBITDA was NOK842 million and Development & Construction EBITDA outperformed at NOK251 million.
  • Backlog expanded to 5.3 GW of solar plus 4.7 GWh of battery storage, led by the 1.95 GW / 3.9 GWh Energy Valley project in Egypt with a 25-year USD-denominated power purchase agreement, and liquidity stood at NOK5.6 billion.

Scatec on Friday released fourth-quarter results showing consolidated metrics that did not meet market forecasts, although proportionate figures were largely consistent with expectations.

At the consolidated level, the company recorded revenues of NOK1,028 million for the quarter, representing an 11% decline from the same period a year earlier and a 5% decrease versus the prior quarter. Those top-line figures were below Kepler Cheuvreux's estimate of NOK1,302 million and the consensus forecast of NOK1,133 million.

Consolidated EBITDA amounted to NOK697 million, down 15% from a year ago and 11% from the previous quarter. The consolidated EBITDA margin narrowed to 68% from 71% in the comparable quarter last year.

Net income for the quarter was a loss of NOK28 million, an improvement versus a NOK101 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2024, but still well under analysts' expectations of NOK114 million.

On a proportionate basis, Scatec's power production totaled 1,017 GWh in the quarter, an 11% decrease year-on-year and a 15% decline quarter-on-quarter. Power Production EBITDA was reported at NOK842 million, marginally below expectations.

Offsetting the modest shortfall in Power Production, the company's Development & Construction business delivered EBITDA of NOK251 million, a result described by the company as significantly ahead of the forecasts.


Backlog and strategic contract

Scatec highlighted a major pipeline development: its backlog rose to 5.3 GW of solar capacity together with 4.7 GWh of battery energy storage systems. This increase was driven in large part by the signing of the Energy Valley project in Egypt, a combined asset that comprises 1.95 GW of solar capacity paired with 3.9 GWh of storage. The project includes a 25-year power purchase agreement denominated in US dollars.


Liquidity and outlook

The company reported a solid liquidity position at quarter-end of NOK5.6 billion, which included NOK3.3 billion in free cash and NOK2.4 billion in undrawn facilities.

For 2026, Scatec reiterated its guidance for proportionate power production of 5.2-5.6 TWh and projected Power Production EBITDA in the range of NOK3.8-4.1 billion.

These results present a mixed operational picture: consolidated headline numbers underperformed relative to analyst models while proportionate operations and project development activity showed resilience and meaningful growth in contracted pipeline.

Risks

  • Consolidated revenue and EBITDA underperformance indicates potential near-term headline volatility for the renewable energy sector and related equity valuations.
  • Power production declined on both a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis, implying operational and generation risks that could affect electricity-focused revenues.
  • Despite a strengthened backlog, execution risk for large-scale projects such as the Energy Valley development could influence project timelines and future cash flows in the project development and construction segment.

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