Stock Markets January 26, 2026

Redburn Raises Price Target on Meta, Says AI Cost Fears Mask Long-Term Upside

Brokerage upgrades Meta to Buy and points to durable ad demand and AI-driven growth despite near-term cost pressures

By Marcus Reed
Redburn Raises Price Target on Meta, Says AI Cost Fears Mask Long-Term Upside

Redburn Atlantic upgraded Meta Platforms to Buy and lifted its target to $900 from $740, arguing that market anxiety about rising artificial intelligence spending has obscured the company's longer-term earnings potential. The firm raised its FY26 cost and capex estimates, cautioned on near-term EPS headwinds, but highlighted durable advertising strength and multi-year AI opportunities.

Key Points

  • Redburn Atlantic upgraded Meta Platforms to Buy and raised its price target to $900 from $740, citing obscured long-term upside due to investor worries about AI spending.
  • Meta’s advertising business remains a strength, with Redburn highlighting the company’s efficient matching of user demand and advertiser supply and potential to grow share in non-search advertising; Meta forecast an 18% ad revenue CAGR from 2025-2028 versus a 16% consensus.
  • Redburn increased its FY26 cost and capex estimates, but says longer-term returns from AI investments and opportunities such as agentic AI for Advantage+ and AI-driven video generation support a strong return on invested capital through 2028.

Redburn Atlantic has elevated Meta Platforms to a Buy rating and increased its price objective to $900 from $740, saying investor concern over escalating artificial intelligence outlays has overshadowed the longer-term profit potential of the company.

The brokerage noted that recent weakness in Meta's share price reflects uncertainty tied to the company’s substantial AI investments, with particular attention focused on its Superintelligence Labs program. Meta is scheduled to release quarterly results on Wednesday. In Monday premarket trading, the shares were down about 1%.

Redburn argues that Meta still operates the most effective digital advertising "demand machine," matching user attention with advertiser dollars with high efficiency. The firm also notes that Meta can still expand in non-search advertising, where it currently holds roughly one-third of the market. Meta itself forecast an 18% compound annual growth rate for ad revenue from 2025 through 2028, a pace Redburn highlights as above the 16% consensus figure.

At the same time, Redburn expects concern about AI expenses to intensify around the company’s issuance of fiscal 2026 guidance. The brokerage has raised its FY26 total cost estimate to $158.6 billion, which exceeds the consensus estimate of $150.5 billion, and has lifted its capital expenditure projection to $117.1 billion from a prior $110.0 billion.

Those adjustments, Redburn warned, could produce a near-term earnings-per-share headwind of approximately $2.75. The firm said that such pressures could drag consensus FY26 EPS down to a range of $27 to $28, versus a prior consensus figure near $29.55.

Despite the shorter-term earnings risks tied to elevated operating expenses and capex, Redburn maintains that Meta is well positioned to generate returns from its AI investments over time. The brokerage highlighted two specific long-horizon opportunities. First, it sees potential for agentic AI capabilities to expand Meta’s Advantage+ product into a broader platform for small and medium-sized businesses. Second, Redburn pointed to AI-driven video generation as a capability that could reshape aspects of consumer entertainment, an area where Meta already has significant scale.

Redburn also stated its expectation that Meta is likely to return near the frontier of AI model development during the year, aided by improving hardware cycles and advancements in model execution. The firm projects that, even after incorporating higher AI-related expenditures, Meta’s return on invested capital should remain above 20% through 2028.

On valuation, Redburn said that at roughly $650 per share the stock does not fully reflect these longer-term opportunities, even if near-term guidance or spending commentary produces volatility in the months ahead.


Note: This article reports Redburn Atlantic’s published estimates, forecasts and assessments regarding Meta Platforms. The figures and projections cited above reflect the brokerage’s stated views.

Risks

  • Rising operating expenses and higher capital expenditures tied to AI initiatives could pressure near-term earnings and guidance, affecting technology and advertising sector investor sentiment.
  • Redburn’s raised FY26 total cost and capex estimates may create an EPS headwind (about $2.75), which could reduce consensus FY26 EPS to $27-$28 from around $29.55, introducing volatility into Meta’s stock and related tech sector valuations.
  • Near-term uncertainty around fiscal 2026 guidance and investor reaction to AI spending could produce share price volatility despite long-term opportunities, impacting market participants focused on growth and capital-intensive tech companies.

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