Raymond James elevated Maplebear, the parent company of Instacart, to an Outperform rating with a $50 price target in a client note on Thursday, arguing that the company's formal rollout of its Cart Assistant feature is a pivotal moment for the online grocery operator.
Context and thesis
Analyst Josh Beck framed grocery as a complex and still lightly penetrated e-commerce category, estimating online penetration at roughly 13% versus 40% or more in categories such as apparel, electronics and home goods. He said agentic shopping experiences - including improved list building through natural language, more tailored recommendations and deal-seeking functionality - should meaningfully lift conversion rates and average order values for Instacart.
"The formal launch of Cart Assistant is an underappreciated tailwind coming to Instacart web/app and enterprise partners like Kroger in months/quarters ahead," Beck wrote.
Raymond James currently estimates Instacart's conversion rate at approximately 13% using third-party traffic data, and the firm sees room for improvement as Cart Assistant is deployed more broadly. The note also identified the potential for third-party agentic platforms - specifically ChatGPT, Gemini and Meta AI - to attract new monthly active orderers beyond Instacart's existing base of 10 million.
Competitive dynamics and pricing observation
On competitive pressure from Amazon, Beck reported findings from a test basket in Valdosta, Georgia. In that comparison, Amazon-Winn-Dixie provided roughly a $50 discount on a large order, but Instacart's fulfillment window of one to two hours compared favorably with Amazon's three to five hour window. Raymond James interpreted that discrepancy as evidence of structurally different markets rather than a simple price vs. service trade-off.
Financial outlook and valuation scenarios
The firm raised its gross transaction value (GTV) estimates to $42.1 billion for 2026 and $47.7 billion for 2027, placing Raymond James at the top of Street estimates. The note included a bull case valuation of $65 per share, which is premised on approximately $5 of EPS power and a 13x price-to-earnings multiple.
Additional note on model-driven stock selection
The client note also referenced a separate ProPicks AI tool that evaluates stocks using more than 100 financial metrics. That tool assesses whether CART appears in current strategies and highlights past winners including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%).
Raymond James' upgrade and raising of GTV forecasts center on product-driven improvements to conversion and order economics, as well as the prospect that external AI agents could broaden Instacart's user base. The firm quantifies current conversion at roughly 13% and cites both price and fulfillment timing as differentiating factors in local market tests.