The Polish Bank Association (ZBP) said on Tuesday that the country’s banking sector is expected to report a total net profit of roughly 30.8 billion zlotys in 2026.
That forecast represents a marked drop from ZBP’s projection for 2025, when industry profits were placed in a range between 44.1 billion and 46.1 billion zlotys. The association identified two principal drivers behind the anticipated decline.
Primary downward pressures
- Lower interest rates: ZBP estimates that a reduction in interest rates will reduce sector profits by about 18.4%.
- Higher corporate taxes on banks: The association expects this change to subtract around 14.8% from profits.
In addition to these quantified effects, ZBP highlighted constraints on balance-sheet growth. The association said banks face limited opportunities to expand their loan books in 2026 and noted there are no clear signs of a meaningful pickup in corporate lending.
Those constraints on lending growth, combined with the dual headwinds of lower rates and higher taxation, form the core of the association’s explanation for the projected profit decline.
Context and limits of the forecast
ZBP’s figures present a consolidated view of the domestic banking sector’s earnings outlook, but the association’s commentary also makes clear that the projection rests on current expectations about interest-rate trends and tax policy. ZBP additionally points to structural limits on loan book expansion and the absence of an identifiable recovery in corporate lending as contributors to the weaker profit outlook.
Beyond the metrics and drivers cited by ZBP, the association did not provide further detail in its announcement about timing, individual-bank impacts, or potential mitigating factors. Where information is limited, ZBP’s statement is explicit rather than speculative.
Implications
The forecast signals a significant earnings adjustment for Poland’s banking industry in 2026 versus 2025, with lower rates and increased taxation quantified as the main negative contributors and constrained lending activity highlighted as an additional headwind.