Stock Markets January 29, 2026

Oracle Stock Slumps More Than Half From Peak as AI-Driven Optimism Fades

Market reappraisal of AI investments and OpenAI ties erases roughly $463 billion from Oracle’s market value

By Hana Yamamoto ORCL MSFT NVDA
Oracle Stock Slumps More Than Half From Peak as AI-Driven Optimism Fades
ORCL MSFT NVDA

Oracle Corp. has seen its share price fall by over 50% from the record high set last year, wiping out about $463 billion in market capitalization as investor enthusiasm for AI-linked investments cools and scrutiny grows around the company’s relationships with OpenAI and related capital deployments. Broader technology sector weakness, amplified by a sharp drop in Microsoft shares, has put further pressure on Oracle stock.

Key Points

  • Oracle shares have declined more than 50% from last year’s peak, reducing market value by about $463 billion.
  • The company hit a record valuation above $933 billion on September 10 after reporting strong cloud projections tied to AI demand.
  • Wider technology sector weakness, including an 11.3% drop in Microsoft shares, and concerns over capital spending and deals tied to OpenAI have intensified selling pressure.

Shares of Oracle Corp. have retreated more than half from their all-time high reached last year, costing the company about $463 billion in market value as investors reassess the artificial intelligence space and Oracle’s connections to OpenAI.

The company’s peak valuation exceeded $933 billion on September 10, a level that briefly positioned Oracle among the 10 most valuable publicly listed U.S. firms after management laid out robust cloud business projections tied to AI demand.

But optimism around AI investments has cooled. Market participants are increasingly cautious as large technology firms continue to spend heavily on data center expansion and other capital expenditures without clear evidence that those outlays are producing commensurate near-term returns. That shift in sentiment has weighed on companies positioned as AI enablers.

Investors have also expressed concern about so-called circular arrangements involving OpenAI - which remains a private and unprofitable company - and corporate partners, including Oracle and Nvidia. Those arrangements have prompted questions about the sustainability and transparency of revenue and investment flows tied to AI initiatives.

Oracle’s recent capital-raising activity has added to investor wariness. The company has raised tens of billions of dollars through bond offerings, both directly and via projects backed by those financings, a dynamic that market participants have factored into their reassessments.

The stock faced further downward pressure on Thursday, sliding an additional 6% amid broader weakness across the technology sector. The sell-off followed disappointing results from Microsoft, whose shares dropped 11.3% after cloud revenue performance raised doubts about the pace at which investments connected to its OpenAI partnership are delivering returns.

The cumulative effect is a marked re-pricing of expectation for companies tied to AI demand and cloud infrastructure spending. Market participants are now weighing the sizable capital commitments being made against an uncertain timeline for return on investment.


Summary

Oracle’s stock has fallen over 50% from its high achieved last year, eliminating about $463 billion in market value amid cooling AI enthusiasm, concerns over ties with OpenAI, large-scale fundraising through bond sales, and renewed technology sector weakness after Microsoft’s results.

Risks

  • Continued investor skepticism about the returns from large capital expenditures on data centers could pressure cloud and infrastructure providers - impacting the technology sector.
  • Market concerns over financing activity, including tens of billions raised via bond sales, could weigh on corporate valuations for companies pursuing sizable external funding - affecting corporate credit and equity markets.
  • Uncertainty around commercial arrangements involving OpenAI and private, unprofitable entities may heighten scrutiny of revenue visibility for firms linked to those partnerships - affecting AI-focused businesses and cloud vendors.

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