Summary
OPEC+ on Sunday approved a modest quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May 2026, a decision Bank of America described as symbolic. The increase affects eight OPEC+ members that had previously announced additional voluntary production cuts in April and November 2023.
Production increase and context
The quota adjustment totals 206,000 barrels per day and applies to eight countries within the OPEC+ grouping. Bank of America characterized the move as largely symbolic, noting that core Middle East OPEC output remains constrained by Iran's continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Disruption estimates from Rystad as cited by Bank of America
Using figures from Rystad cited by Bank of America, the current disruptions to Middle East liquids production amount to about 12.6 million barrels per day in aggregate. That total breaks down into 10.6 million barrels per day of oil, 900,000 barrels per day of condensate, and 1.1 million barrels per day of natural gas liquids.
Which countries are most affected
Iraq and Kuwait are identified as facing the largest disruptions, with most of their pre-war production currently shut-in. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also affected, primarily in offshore operations, although both countries have preserved significant production by routing flows through alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.
Nature of shut-ins and expected timelines
Bank of America notes a distinction in how shut-ins have been implemented across the region. Shut-ins in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have been mostly orderly. By contrast, shut-ins in Iraq and Kuwait were more abrupt, driven by security concerns and storage limitations rather than deliberate subsurface production strategies.
The bank expects fields in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar to be able to resume operations within days to weeks. Some fields in Iraq and Kuwait, however, may need several weeks to two to three months to restart and could require new drilling activity.
Potential longer-term capacity loss
Rystad provided a contingency estimate that between 0.4 million and 1.1 million barrels per day of Middle East oil production capacity could be lost if the currently shut-in fields are not brought back online within six months.
Implications
Given the limited scale of the quota increase relative to the magnitude of current disruptions, Bank of America's assessment frames the May 2026 quota change as more symbolic than materially easing supply constraints while restart timelines remain uncertain.