A Morgan Stanley AlphaWise consumer poll conducted from January 22-26 finds that U.S. consumers are reporting improved views of the economy and their household finances even as planned purchases of consumer electronics and personal computers have weakened.
In a client note, analyst Erik Woodring summarized the January survey results, noting a clear split between rising sentiment metrics and deteriorating electronics spending intentions. The one-month outlook for the economy moved higher by seven points, reaching -6%, while the household finances metric increased by ten points to +22%.
Morgan Stanley described these increases as significant: the uptick in the economic sentiment measure was the largest month-on-month improvement in seven months, and the gain for household finances was the largest since 2023, according to the firm.
Despite that improvement in sentiment, the survey recorded declines in short- and medium-term spending intentions for consumer electronics and PCs. One-month forward net spending intentions fell to -2% for consumer electronics and to -7% for PCs. Looking further ahead, six-month electronics spending intentions weakened to -11%, down from -7% in November.
The change in planned electronics spending varied by income bracket. Lower-income households saw a five-point decline in their spending intentions, arriving at -21%. Higher-income households registered an 11-point drop to -12%. Morgan Stanley noted that these figures put spending plans "close to in-line with March 2025."
On the topic of tariffs, Woodring reported that tariff-related effects on purchase decisions appear limited in this survey. Only a net 5% of respondents said they expected to reduce electronics purchases in response to tariffs.
Morgan Stanley concluded that, although consumer sentiment measures are improving, early signs of moderation in consumer electronics spending are emerging, which could present headwinds for the sector in coming months. The firm emphasized the contrast between higher confidence readings and softer discretionary electronics demand as a notable feature of the January AlphaWise results.
Contextual note - The survey results reflect respondents' reported intentions at the time of the January 22-26 polling window; they do not constitute projections beyond the data captured in the AlphaWise survey.