Morgan Stanley reported on Tuesday that existing home sales in the United States increased 3.2% in May, reaching an annualized rate of 4.17 million units. The firm’s analysis shows that single-family home transactions led the advance, climbing 3.5% month-over-month to 3.80 million units, while multifamily sales were unchanged at 370,000 units.
The May result exceeded both Morgan Stanley’s own projection of a 2.0% increase and the consensus estimate of a 1.1% rise. April’s level of existing home sales was revised modestly higher in the firm’s review, moving from 4.02 million units to 4.04 million units.
Regional patterns were mixed. Sales rose across all U.S. regions except the West, where transaction volumes were flat in May. Through May, the monthly average of existing home sales stood at 4.07 million units, which Morgan Stanley notes is in line with the full-year 2025 average.
Inventory measures continued to shift. Single-family inventories expanded for the sixth consecutive month and are now 5% higher than a year earlier. At the same time, the months of supply for single-family homes - on a seasonally adjusted basis - ticked down slightly as sales accelerated, moving from 4.5 months to 4.3 months.
Price dynamics showed a divergence between monthly momentum and annual appreciation. Median home prices accelerated on a monthly basis in May, but year-over-year growth slowed. Median prices rose 1.3% compared with May a year ago, down from a 1.6% annual increase recorded in May 2025.
Morgan Stanley’s housing strategists continue to highlight affordability constraints as a limiting factor for demand. The firm projects that existing home sales will finish 2026 essentially flat, citing those affordability challenges. In response to the May data, Morgan Stanley revised its tracking for second-quarter residential investment, now projecting a 1.2% quarter-over-quarter gain on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, up from its prior 0.6% estimate.
This updated tracking reflects Morgan Stanley’s calculation based on the stronger-than-expected sales pace in May and the accompanying inventory and price signals.