Overview
Morgan Stanley has moved Accor SA up from equal-weight to overweight and added the hotel operator to its Top Picks list. The broker pointed to a projected RevPAR inflection in 2027, anticipated net unit growth improvement, leverage from the company fee algorithm and a meaningful increase in shareholder cash returns as the levers that will offset near-term weakness in Middle East travel demand.
Accor shares reacted positively to the note, trading up 2.5% as of 05:13 ET (09:13 GMT).
Valuation and forecasts
Alongside the upgrade, Morgan Stanley increased its price target on Accor to c55 from c51, a level the broker says implies roughly 18% upside to the share price. The bank also raised its FY27 RevPAR forecast to 3.5% from 2.6% - a revision which it said translates into about a 1% lift to group EBITDA.
In its updated modelling Morgan Stanley projects group EBITDA of c1.27 billion in 2026e, rising to c1.39 billion in 2027e and c1.51 billion in 2028e. Corresponding EPS estimates are c2.28 for 2026e, c2.87 for 2027e and c3.39 for 2028e.
Cash returns and shareholder distributions
The broker expects the current Accor share buyback to complete by October. It then anticipates a c500 million program funded by Essendi over the following 12 months, an additional free-cash-flow-funded buyback of about c0.4 billion and a c0.3 billion dividend. Taken together, Morgan Stanley calculates total shareholder distributions of more than c1 billion - roughly 10% of Accor market capitalization under its framework.
Middle East disruption and RevPAR dynamics
Morgan Stanley highlighted sharp near-term weakness in the region, noting that UAE and Middle East & Africa RevPAR were down 53% and 25%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2026. The broker observed improvement in July, with declines moderating to 20% and 4% for the UAE and MEA. It expects Accor RevPAR to begin a stronger trajectory from the second quarter of 2027 as weak Middle East comparatives start to annualize.
The note emphasizes that the Middle East accounted for about 12% of Accor fees in 2025 - about double the exposure of global peers in the broker s view - which helps explain the outsized impact of regional travel softness on Accor metrics.
Morgan Stanley forecasts group RevPAR growth of 2.3% in 2026, accelerating to 3.5% in 2027.
Net unit growth and portfolio dynamics
On supply-side metrics, Morgan Stanley reports Accor net unit growth of 3.2% in the first half of the year, short of the company s original target of about 4% for the full year. The bank attributes the shortfall largely to higher-than-expected churn, including a 40-basis-point headwind from the so-called "Revo collapse," and more hotel closures in China than anticipated.
In the broker s view, the Revo impact should wash out from the second quarter of 2027, allowing net unit growth to recover to 4.1% in FY27e and 4.3% in FY28e from 3.4% in FY26e by the bank s estimates.
Strategic options and multiples
Morgan Stanley noted Accor is exploring a potential listing of its lifestyle business Ennismore, with a decision expected around the end of the third quarter. Press reports referenced in the note pointed to an enterprise value of c3.2 billion for Ennismore based on FY25 financials.
On valuation, the broker says Accor trades at roughly 11 times EV/EBITDA and about 16 times FY27e price-to-earnings - metrics that sit around 25% below asset-light peers such as IHG, Hilton and Marriott, and below Accor own historical multiples.
Downside and scenarios
Morgan Stanley set a bull-case target of c70 and a bear-case of c37, implying about 50% upside and 20% downside respectively from the base case. The note also identifies a set of risks that could limit upside or deepen downside for Accor shares.
Key risks highlighted
- Prolonged softness in the Middle East market into early 2027, which would continue to pressure RevPAR and fees.
- Weaker net unit growth relative to major peers - such as IHG, Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt - that could weigh on scale and fee income.
- Earnings-quality and mix concerns, together with uncertainty from an ongoing management transition; chairman and CEO S e9bastien Bazin has confirmed he will leave no later than May 2028.
Conclusion
Morgan Stanley s upgrade of Accor is driven by an expectation that a RevPAR recovery beginning in mid-2027, improved net unit growth and a substantial program of buybacks and dividends will offset near-term regional travel headwinds. The broker s revised forecasts raise medium-term EBITDA and EPS projections and position Accor as a relatively cheaper asset-light hotel name versus peers, while also warning of concentrated regional exposure and operational risks that could derail the upside case.
Notes: All figures and timelines above reflect Morgan Stanley s projections and the specific figures cited in its research note. The timing and sizes of buybacks, dividends, unit growth and RevPAR outcomes are those presented by the broker.