China’s outbound aluminium volumes increased markedly in May, with combined exports of aluminium and aluminium products reaching 632,000 metric tons, a 16% gain compared with the same month a year earlier and the largest monthly total since November 2024, according to Morgan Stanley data released Tuesday.
The bank attributes part of the move to supply disruptions in the Middle East that have tightened markets outside China. Those developments pushed London Metal Exchange prices higher and expanded the export arbitrage for aluminium, making shipments from China more commercially attractive. At the same time, Chinese aluminium inventories have started to decline, a trend that has coincided with a pickup in semi-finished product shipments abroad.
Steel shipments painted a different picture. Steel exports in May were down 2% year-over-year, even though monthly totals improved on a sequential basis. May steel exports amounted to 10.3 million metric tons, a 9% increase month-over-month. Morgan Stanley noted that the month-on-month improvement likely reflects a low comparative base in April. Cumulative steel exports for the first five months of 2026 stood at 44.6 million metric tons, representing an 8% decline relative to the same period last year.
Other major commodity flows showed mixed signals. China’s imports of copper and copper products totaled 446,000 metric tons in May, a 1% decline from April but a 4% rise from May of the prior year. The Yangshan premium, a gauge of physical demand in China’s import hub, traded in a range between $60 and $75 per metric ton during the month, indicating continued robust physical interest.
Iron ore arrivals in May were recorded at 98 million metric tons, down 6% month-over-month and essentially flat on a year-over-year basis. Coal imports fell 8% versus May of last year but increased slightly month-over-month by 1%, reaching 33 million metric tons in May. Year-to-date coal imports totaled 183 million metric tons, a 3% decline compared with the same period last year.
Taken together, the data depict stronger export momentum for aluminium amid tightening external markets, contrasted with softer performance in steel exports year-to-date and mixed import trends across other industrial commodities.