Lundbeck on Wednesday released fourth-quarter results that combined steady top-line performance with uneven profitability metrics and a cautious outlook for 2026.
For the quarter the company recorded revenue of DKK6.09 billion and adjusted EBITDA of DKK1.61 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were DKK0.94, below the consensus estimate of DKK1.17. The board declared a dividend of DKK1.15.
Operationally, a split performance among its product portfolio was evident. The company said Vyepti, the Abilify franchise and Trintellix outperformed expectations, while Rexulti fell short of consensus by 9%. Lundbeck noted that although gross margins declined, that deterioration was more than offset by lower selling, general and administrative expenses, which supported the adjusted EBITDA beat.
2026 guidance and assumptions
Lundbeck issued guidance for 2026 that assumes revenue growth of 5%-8% at constant exchange rates. Translating that into reported figures and assuming a negative 4% foreign exchange impact, management indicated an implied revenue range of DKK24.83-25.54 billion for 2026.
For adjusted EBITDA the company forecast growth of 4%-12% at constant exchange rates. Applying an assumed negative 9% foreign exchange effect, the implied adjusted EBITDA band becomes DKK7.46-8.03 billion.
Management identified adverse foreign exchange movements and higher anticipated research and development spending as factors weighing on the outlook. The guidance also assumes an intensifying generic competitive environment for the Abilify franchise and incorporates a one-off positive contribution of DKK0.5 billion from revenue build for partners.
Market implications and near-term timing
Current market consensus is reportedly already in line with Lundbeck's revenue guidance but sits above the company's implied adjusted EBITDA range. That divergence means consensus profit estimates may require downward adjustments in the order of 1%-8% to reconcile with the updated guidance.
While Lundbeck indicated it appears on track to hit mid-term targets through 2027, the company highlighted a revenue risk beyond that horizon. Key products - Abilify Maintena and Trintellix/Brintellix - are expected to face generic competition beginning in 2026. Pipeline assets are not forecast to reach the market until 2028, which the company said could create a temporary gap in revenue.