Lockheed Martin raised its 2026 financial targets on Thursday, forecasting revenue and earnings per share that exceed Wall Street expectations as demand for its aircraft and weapons systems remains elevated amid international instability.
The Maryland-based defense contractor said it expects 2026 revenue of $77.5 billion to $80.0 billion, compared with analysts estimates of $77.83 billion compiled by LSEG. It also projected earnings per share in a range of $29.35 to $30.25, above consensus of $29.28.
Management credited a string of global crises for lifting demand for Lockheed products. Conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war have coincided with stronger arms procurement activity, the company said. Lockheed also noted that the capture of the Venezuelan president by U.S. forces further intensified geopolitical tensions; CEO Jim Taiclet said Lockheed platforms used in that operation included the F-35 and F-22 fighters, RQ-170 stealth drones and Sikorsky Black Hawk helicopters.
On the procurement front, Lockheed said it secured a seven-year pact with the Department of War to increase Patriot PAC-3 missile interceptor output to 2,000 units per year, up from 600. The company highlighted its missiles business as the fastest-growing unit in the fourth quarter, with sales up 17.8% year-on-year. Its aeronautics division, the largest by revenue and the producer of the F-35, reported quarterly sales growth of 6.4%.
Lockheed also disclosed operational milestones: the company delivered a record 191 F-35 fighter jets in 2025, compared with 110 in 2024. The F-35 program remains the Pentagon's largest acquisition effort, with estimated lifetime costs for purchasing, operating and maintaining the aircraft exceeding $2 trillion.
Financial results for the most recent quarter showed Lockheed posted revenue of $20.32 billion, up from $18.62 billion a year earlier.
Capital-return policy has emerged as an area of uncertainty. In January, President Donald Trump signed an order that links dividends, share buybacks and executive pay to weapons delivery schedules, a step the company said introduces ambiguity around future capital distributions. Peers in the sector have responded differently: RTX reaffirmed its commitment to dividends, while Northrop Grumman said it would pause buybacks beyond January.
Lockheed reported it paid $3.13 billion in dividends in 2025, an increase from $3.06 billion the prior year.
What this means
- Lockheed's guidance points to a demand environment for defense platforms and munitions that remains robust amid ongoing global conflicts.
- Missiles and aeronautics were key growth drivers in the quarter, while record F-35 deliveries underscore production scale-up.
- Policy actions linking capital returns to weapons delivery schedules create uncertainty for shareholder payouts across the defense sector.
Data summary
- 2026 revenue guidance: $77.5 billion to $80.0 billion (analysts: $77.83 billion).
- 2026 EPS guidance: $29.35 to $30.25 (analysts: $29.28).
- Quarterly revenue: $20.32 billion vs $18.62 billion a year earlier.
- Fourth-quarter missiles sales growth: +17.8% year-on-year.
- Aeronautics quarterly sales growth: +6.4% year-on-year.
- F-35 deliveries in 2025: 191 (2024: 110).
- Dividends paid in 2025: $3.13 billion (2024: $3.06 billion).
Context and market implications
Lockheed's updated outlook and quarterly performance reflect continued procurement momentum across its core platforms - notably fighters, missiles and helicopters. That dynamic has implications for aerospace and defense suppliers, as sustaining higher production rates can affect supply chains, capacity utilization and capital spending plans across the sector.
At the same time, new policy directions on linking corporate payouts to delivery schedules introduce a variable that could influence capital allocation decisions by defense companies and investor expectations for dividends and buybacks.