Stock Markets January 28, 2026

Labor report takes center stage as markets brace for a dense U.S. data slate

Initial Jobless Claims headline a packed January 29, 2026 schedule that includes productivity, trade and multiple Treasury auctions

By Avery Klein
Labor report takes center stage as markets brace for a dense U.S. data slate

Markets are set to focus on the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday, January 29, 2026, with a broad set of additional U.S. economic releases and Treasury auctions scheduled the same day. The Initial Jobless Claims print, due at 8:30 AM ET and expected at 206K versus the prior 200K, will sit alongside data on unit labor costs, continuing claims, trade flows, and nonfarm productivity. A series of manufacturing and wholesale reports, as well as Treasury bill and note auctions, complete a full calendar that could affect liquidity and short-term market sentiment.

Key Points

  • Initial Jobless Claims due at 8:30 AM ET are forecast at 206K versus the prior 200K, serving as the primary focus for markets.
  • A broad set of releases at 8:30 AM ET - including unit labor costs, continuing claims, trade balance and nonfarm productivity - will provide multiple signals on labor, inflation and external demand.
  • Treasury bill and note auctions, factory orders and wholesale data later in the day add depth to the economic picture and could influence short-term liquidity and yields.

As the markets prepare for Thursday, January 29, 2026, attention is concentrated on a heavy economic calendar. The centerpiece of the day is the weekly Initial Jobless Claims release, but a range of other data and Treasury operations scheduled throughout the session will give investors multiple datapoints to digest.


Main focus - Initial Jobless Claims

The Initial Jobless Claims report, due at 8:30 AM ET, is expected to show 206K new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous reading of 200K. This weekly indicator measures the number of people filing for benefits for the first time over the past week and is widely used to gauge shifts in labor market conditions.


Other major releases at 8:30 AM ET

  • Unit Labor Costs - Forecast -1.9% versus prior -2.9%. This metric tracks the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding farming, and is a leading indicator for consumer inflation.
  • Continuing Jobless Claims - Expected at 1,860K versus prior 1,849K. This statistic counts the number of unemployed individuals who remain eligible for unemployment insurance benefits.
  • Trade Balance - Forecast at -$43.40B compared to previous -$29.40B. This measures the difference between the value of goods and services imported into and exported from the United States.
  • Nonfarm Productivity - Expected at 4.9% versus previous 4.1%. This captures the annualized change in labor efficiency for producing goods and services, excluding farming.
  • Imports - Previous reading $331.40B. This is the total value of goods and services brought into the U.S. from abroad.
  • Exports - Previous reading $302.00B. This is the U.S. dollar amount of merchandise exports recorded in the prior report.

Midday and afternoon events

  • 10:00 AM ET - Factory Orders - Forecast 1.7% versus prior -1.3%. This measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers and includes several related submeasures due the same hour.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Durables Excluding Defense - Previous reading 6.6%.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Factory Orders Ex Transportation - Previous reading -0.2%.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Durables Excluding Transport - Previous reading 0.5%.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Wholesale Inventories - Expected 0.2% versus prior 0.5%.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Wholesale Trade Sales - Previous reading -0.4%.
  • 10:30 AM ET - Natural Gas Storage - Previous reading -120B. This reports the weekly change in the volume of natural gas held in underground storage.
  • 11:30 AM ET - 4-Week Bill Auction - Previous yield 3.630%.
  • 11:30 AM ET - 8-Week Bill Auction - Previous yield 3.630%.
  • 12:00 PM ET - 7-Year Note Auction - Previous yield 3.930%. This auction determines the market yield on the seven-year Treasury note for investors who hold it to maturity.
  • 1:00 PM ET - Atlanta Fed GDPNow - Expected at 5.4%, unchanged from the prior reading. This running estimate of real GDP growth updates as new data for the quarter becomes available.
  • 4:30 PM ET - Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks - Previous $2.957T. This figure reports the amount depository institutions hold on account at regional Federal Reserve Banks.
  • 4:30 PM ET - Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - Previous $6,585B. This summary lists the assets and liabilities held by the Federal Reserve System.

Additional labor series

Alongside the weekly jobless claims numbers, the Jobless Claims 4-Week Average - a smoother measure of underlying trend - will be in focus at 8:30 AM ET. The prior reading for this average was 201.50K.


Market context and what to watch

With Initial Jobless Claims scheduled early in the session and a cluster of manufacturing, wholesale, trade and Treasury operations following through the day, market participants will have a broad set of indicators that touch on labor market momentum, inflation pressures via labor costs and productivity, and demand conditions in goods and wholesale channels. Treasury bill and note auctions could also influence short-term liquidity and yields during the trading day.


How traders might use the data

Investors and traders routinely incorporate the weekly jobless claims print into assessments of cyclical strength. The related continuing claims and the 4-week average help provide additional context on whether initial spikes or dips reflect durable trends. Unit labor costs and nonfarm productivity figures feed into inflation monitoring, while the trade balance, imports and exports offer snapshots of external demand. Factory orders and wholesale figures supply further detail on manufacturing and distribution activity. Separately, the timing and yields of Treasury auctions will be watched for their potential to affect short-term rates and funding conditions.


Note: This article lists the scheduled releases and previously reported values or forecasts for January 29, 2026.

Risks

  • A higher-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims reading could signal weakening labor market momentum, affecting consumer-sensitive sectors.
  • Wider-than-forecast deterioration in the trade balance or weaker-than-expected factory orders could weigh on industrial and manufacturing-related equities.
  • Treasury auctions and shifts in reserve balances or the Fed's reported balance sheet could alter short-term funding conditions and impact fixed-income markets.

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