JPMorgan told investors to remain selective across European building materials names as markets move into the second half of 2026, placing Holcim, Sika and Amrize on Catalyst Watch while highlighting differentiated opportunities across the sector.
Analysts led by Elodie Rall pointed to a tough year so far for the industry, noting the sector has "endured a challenging 2026, de-rating ~10% ytd." They described a notable rotation that began with second-quarter results: lighter-weight building products, which the bank calls "Lightside," have outperformed heavier materials, or "Heavyside," with Lightside rising about 10% while Heavyside has fallen roughly 6% since Q2 earnings began.
Rall and her team said this rotation "has largely played out," and that JPMorgan now sees pockets of opportunity in both sub-sectors despite an outlook clouded by inflation and interest-rate uncertainty heading into year-end.
Catalyst watches and near-term earnings focus
Holcim and Sika were moved to Positive Catalyst Watch as the pair prepare to report third-quarter results on October 23. JPMorgan's internal modelling shows scope for results to outpace current expectations. For Holcim, the bank's estimates point to 13% like-for-like EBIT growth, which would exceed the company's 10% guidance and open the door for a possible guidance upgrade.
At Sika, JPMorgan noted that if the company meets the upper end of its full-year guidance, that would imply EBITDA of about 2.24 billion Swiss francs - approximately 2% above consensus forecasts.
By contrast, Amrize was placed on Negative Catalyst Watch ahead of results in the week of October 26. The analysts highlighted a specific near-term risk to the roofing specialist's 2026 growth targets given the lack of storm activity so far this year, which could weigh on roofing volumes and related revenue streams.
Kingspan upgrade and drivers
JPMorgan upgraded Kingspan from Neutral to Overweight and raised its price target to 00;130 from 00;95. The upgrade was attributed to strong earnings momentum tied to the company's exposure to data-centre demand. Order intake for Kingspan's Advnsys unit has "nearly quadrupled," according to the analysts, which supports improved near-term earnings visibility. The bank also flagged a U.S. roofing venture that Kingspan plans to outline at a November 10 capital markets day in Oklahoma as a further potential catalyst.
Broader positioning across names
JPMorgan retained Overweight ratings on Heidelberg, Buzzi, Saint-Gobain and Travis Perkins, and kept Neutral stances on Geberit, Rockwool and Howden. The bank described Heidelberg as attractive on valuation, trading at about 7 times 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA with a roughly 7% free cash flow yield, while also cautioning that there could be "further downside risk to earnings" into the second half. Saint-Gobain's valuation was called "very compelling" at roughly 6 times 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA, though JPMorgan sees limited scope for near-term upside surprises there.
Overall, JPMorgan's note combines a micro focus on company-specific catalysts with a macro awareness of inflation and rate uncertainty, advising investors to be selective as the sector reacts to the mix shift between Lightside and Heavyside names.